Happens every January. You come out of the post-holiday funk, look up at the NBA standings and lo and behold, the bulk of the league is just about to play its 41st game.
Yes, this week we hit the midseason point in the NBA.
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That makes for a good time to check on how the award balloting is shaping up. Much can change, of course, but the players who are leading the way for the league’s various awards at midseason very often are the ones who wind up winning in the end.
Let’s have a look at where things would stand on my ballot...
MVP: James Harden, Rockets
Other contenders: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks; Kawhi Leonard, Raptors; Nikola Jokic, Nuggets; Paul George, Thunder; Stephen Curry, Warriors; LeBron James, Lakers
It’s a deep field of potential MVPs this season, and the way the Rockets started the season — they were 1-5 out of the gate and later were just 11-14 — left Harden an unlikely candidate to repeat for the award. But his last 15 games have changed that perception. The Rockets are 12-3 and have moved into the top four in the West in that stretch.
It’s been the Harden show, as he’s averaged 39.1 points, 40.4 3-point shooting, 9.1 assists and 6.2 rebounds in those games. Along the way, he’s inserted himself back into the top spot in the MVP conversation.
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But Harden’s grasp on the MVP is tenuous. Each of the Western Conference teams ahead of the Rockets has its own impressive MVP candidate. Denver has Jokic, averaging 18.9 points, 10.1 rebounds and 7.4 assists; the Thunder have George, playing top-tier defense while averaging 26.8 points; and the Warriors, as always, have Curry buoying the team with 29.4 points and 45.0 percent 3-point shooting.
The bigger threat to a Harden repeat, though, comes from the East. Milwaukee and Toronto have been nip-and-tuck for the league’s best record, and Antetokounmpo (26.6 points, 12.6 rebounds, 6.0 assists) has the numbers and could be considered the sentimental favorite to win the award. Leonard (27.2 points, 7.9 rebounds) has delivered what Toronto sought when trading for him last summer.
Rookie of the Year: Luka Doncic, Mavericks
Other contenders: DeAndre Ayton, Suns; Trae Young, Hawks; Jaren Jackson Jr., Grizzlies
Doncic entered the league as a teenage European star who would be asked to be a central figure in getting the Mavericks to the playoffs in what could be Dirk Nowitzki’s final season. He has lived up to expectations, leading all rookies in scoring (19.6), second in assists (4.9) and third in rebounding (6.7).
Dallas may be a longshot for the postseason, but the Mavs are within 3.5 games of the No. 8 seed and would not be that close without Doncic’s output and leadership.
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Ayton and Young have shown promise, toiling for two of the NBA’s worst teams. But Ayton (16.7 points, 10.7 rebounds) will need much more refinement, and Young (15.4 points, 7.4 assists) is shooting just 39.3 percent from the field and 29.3 percent from the 3-point line.
Jackson (13.4 points) has flashed glimpses of his future versatility but has been inconsistent and mistake-prone.
Coach of the Year: Mike Budenholzer, Bucks
Other contenders: Mike Malone, Nuggets; Nate McMillan, Pacers; Gregg Popovich, Spurs; Brett Brown, Sixers
Brook Lopez, Ersan Ilyasova and, more recently, George Hill. The Bucks have done some tinkering around the edges of the roster in the past year but have not exactly had a team-wide overhaul. Yet the group that struggled through last season, that finished with 44 wins and the No. 7 seed in the East, now has the best record in the league.
The big difference is not the players — it’s the system that new coach Mike Budenholzer brought to the team, on both ends of the floor. The Bucks took an average of 24.7 3-pointers last year, 25th in the NBA, and ran a cluttered, cut-heavy offense under ex-coach Jason Kidd. This year has been all about better spacing, and Milwaukee is No. 2 in 3-point attempts, at 38.9 per game. The Bucks were 10th in offensive efficiency last year (108.8), but are second this year (113.5).
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The defensive transformation has been even more impressive. The Bucks had a collection of long-limbed, versatile athletes but did not take advantage of that under Kidd, ranking 18th in defensive efficiency (109.1). That’s changed. The Bucks are the best in the league at keeping teams out of the paint and cutting down fast-break attempts, and that’s fueled a bounce in defensive efficiency, all the way to the No. 4 spot in the league, at 104.3.
There are a handful of good candidates, but no coach has had a more demonstrable impact than Budenholzer.
Defensive Player of the Year: Paul George, Thunder
Other contenders: Kawhi Leonard, Raptors; Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bucks; Rudy Gobert, Jazz; Myles Turner, Pacers; Joel Embiid, Sixers
Last year, when wing Andre Roberson went down with an injury, the Thunder’s defense fell apart. This year, with Roberson again out, George is not allowing a repeat. The Thunder are the best defensive team in the league (101.7 defensive efficiency), and George is the primary reason.
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George’s individual defensive rating is 99.5, and he leads the league in defensive win shares (0.19). He frequently takes on the best perimeter player the opponent has and sets the tone for the OKC defense.
The team has imposing big men around him — center Steven Adams is among the league’s best pick-and-roll defenders, and Jerami Grant is a superb athlete who has finally come into his own. But the Thunder’s D starts with George, and he’s ahead of the field going into the second half.
Sixth Man of the Year: Domantas Sabonis, Pacers
Other contenders: Lou Williams, Clippers; Montrezl Harrell, Clippers; Dennis Schroder, Thunder; Spencer Dinwiddie, Nets; Dwyane Wade, Heat
Williams, as always, has a good case and Harrell continues to be a pleasant surprise. Schroder has buoyed an otherwise so-so bunch of reserves, while Dinwiddie and Wade both carry good backstories into their Sixth Man candidacies — Dinwiddie fighting through a raft of injuries that might have ended some careers, and Wade seeking to end his Hall of Fame career as the top bench player in the league.
But no one has done more to carry a bench that badly needs help than Sabonis, who is averaging 14.9 points and 9.6 rebounds, shooting 62.3 percent from the field. He’s doing it in just 25.1 minutes per game, and is a plus-4.6 as a reserve, tied for first among players who have appeared in 25 games off the bench.
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The Pacers signed two players — Tyreke Evans and Doug McDermott — to bolster their bench this year, and each has been something of a disappointment. Sabonis has accounted for 37.7 percent of the Pacers’ reserve points, which is more than higher scorers Williams (35.1 percent) or Dinwiddie (36.1).
And Sabonis’ efficiency deserves credit. The Pacers lead the league in bench field-goal percentage (48.5), but the reserves around Sabonis are shooting just 42.6 percent.
Most Improved: Pascal Siakam, Raptors
Other contenders: Myles Turner, Pacers; Bryn Forbes, Spurs; Nikola Vucevic, Magic; Noah Vonleh, Knicks; Juan Hernangomez, Nuggets
Siakam is a third-year player, and improvement is expected from a guy who finally has two NBA seasons under his belt. It’s a little too convenient to vote for a guy like that as Most Improved.
But the leap Siakam has made this year on both ends of the floor is impossible to ignore and puts him in the driver’s seat for this award.
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Offensively, Siakam has developed a credible 3-point shot, making 35.6 percent from the arc after hitting only 21.6 percent of 3s in his first two seasons. He is very efficient in the paint and has featured a nice little hook shot more often this year. He’s scoring 15.0 points in 30.7 minutes and shooting 58.0 percent from the field. That’s up from 7.3 points in 20.7 minutes last year.
But Siakam’s development has shown most prominently on the defensive end. He is athletic, has a long wingspan and eagerly guards every position. He can be too aggressive and commit bad fouls sometimes, but he has cut back on those mistakes and only figures to get better as he gets more experience, and as refs grant him more respect as a defender.