The reality of the much-hyped NBA free agent class of 2018, which received ample attention over All-Star weekend, is that beyond the first handful of guys, things get dicey quickly.
There’s one guy not going anywhere — Warriors forward Kevin Durant — and three guys who are marginal candidates to leave their current teams (Chris Paul, LeBron James, Paul George). There’s a big guy who’s hurt (DeMarcus Cousins) and a big guy who’s offensively limited (DeAndre Jordan).
That pretty much does it for the big-money, unrestricted crop.
MORE: Biggest winners and losers from All-Star weekend
From there, the best bet teams with cap space have is a bustling group of restricted free agents. These are the castoff members of the draft Class of 2014, which saw only four first-rounders receive extensions last offseason, and provide the best opportunities for teams struggling to attract free agents to unearth some gems.
These players are all young, but each also comes with some asterisk or another — a lingering injury, a front office seeking to rebuild, a team with luxury tax concerns. If there were no such asterisk, the player would have an extended contract already.
"It was not a great draft class, and it has not been a group that has had a lot of luck," one general manager told Sporting News. "So restricted free agency, you know, there’s going to be a lot there to pick from. If you put a team into the right position, you can sign some good young players.
"But a lot of guys get cold feet when it comes to actually trying to sign other teams’ players — there’s some risk."
That risk comes from the extended waiting. Teams signing restricted players must wait two days for the player’s original team to decide to match the offer or pass on the new contract, which is a deterrent. No team wants to have eight (or nine) figures worth of salary tied up for days during the critical opening two weeks of free agency — especially if, in the end, the player’s team matches the contract and keeps him.
At the head of that 2014 class is the player most emblematic of the restricted free-agent conundrum, Orlando’s Aaron Gordon. He has improved in each of his NBA seasons and is up to 18.4 points and 8.3 rebounds per game this year, both career-highs. He is making 34.6 percent of his 3s, also a career-high, though he was in a slump before going to the bench with a hip flexor injury in January. The Magic have stopped toying with the idea of making Gordon a wing, and he has fit in more comfortably as the team’s power forward this season.
MORE: All-Stars shine in LA, but who might return this summer?
But the Magic are terrible, and the new front office of Jeff Weltman and John Hammond ideally would wipe the slate clean and rebuild the team from there. There was talk of a trade for Gordon at the deadline, but nothing ever got close. The team pushed off a decision on his future until this summer, when the Magic will still have the power to control Gordon’s fate.
Orlando will have a choice. It can either strike quickly and come up with the $100 million or so for four years that Gordon is likely to seek early this July, giving Gordon the security of a new deal and the knowledge he is a key building block going forward. Or the Magic can wait and let the market for Gordon develop, in hopes that he won’t receive much attention. That will allow the team to save some money if Gordon gets only a value offer.
In Gordon’s case, though, there will be offers — he is only 22, and his ever-improving production makes him worth the restricted risk for young teams looking to bolster their rosters.
League sources told Sporting News this week that the Suns are expected to be suitors for Gordon, who starred at Arizona for one memorable season. Phoenix has ample cap room and a roster in need of more proven players. Another team with interest in Gordon, according to sources, would be the rebuilding Mavericks, who have been eager to find a budding star to fill in alongside Harrison Barnes and Dennis Smith Jr., softening the blow of Dirk Nowitzki’s retirement, which could come in just months.
The Pacers intend to investigate restricted free agents, too, hoping to add young talent to an improving roster. Still, if any team makes a formal offer, the Magic can match it.
There will be plenty of other players in Gordon’s position. Jabari Parker, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2014 NBA Draft, has tremendous offensive talent, but he also has two major knee surgeries on his resume, questionable defensive skill and just a couple more months to show he’s completely healthy. No. 5 pick Dante Exum has had just one healthy season in his career, and No. 6 pick Marcus Smart is a defensive bulldog who is also battling a hand injury and still can’t shoot.
In a normal year, more of these players would have signed before this season has started. Instead, they’ll be scrambling to gobble up whatever limited cap space is still there as the bigger unrestricted free agents sign in the first week of July. There are good young names on the restricted list: Julius Randle, Elfrid Payton, Zach LaVine, Clint Capela.
And there’s Gordon. What happens with him should go a long way toward directing the market for restricted free agency this year. The Class of 2014 has taken a good deal of criticism for its underperformance, some of it deserved. But there have been some unsigned players having solid years, too. The market for restricted free agents has not always been kind. Maybe that will change in 2018.