UPDATE: Gordon Hayward announced Tuesday evening he would be signing with the Celtics. The article below was originally published on June 22.
After being left off of the All-NBA team this season, the Jazz lost a huge edge when it comes to retaining Gordon Hayward. Whereas they would’ve been able to offer him $223.7 million over five years had he made one of the All-NBA teams, the most they can offer him if he opts out of his contract to become an unrestricted free agent this summer is around $175.7 million.
According to The Step Back’s Jeff Siegel, that’s more than the $130.2 million other teams can offer Hayward over a maximum of four years — although he could come close to making up the difference if he still commands $30 million per season when his next contract expires — but the gap isn’t as significant as it would be if he was eligible for the super max.
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That’s one of the reasons why the Celtics are now considered to be in the running to sign Hayward. Beyond having an opportunity to play for his former college head coach Brad Stevens, Hayward wouldn’t have to make a big sacrifice financially to be on a team fresh off an appearance in the Eastern Conference finals. The Jazz are in an equally promising position with their young core and depth, but the Celtics can offer Hayward a slightly easier road to the NBA Finals at a similar price as long as he’s prepared to share the spotlight with Isaiah Thomas.
The last part is important because Hayward has developed into a No. 1 option in Utah, and he would be joining a team that currently revolves almost entirely around Thomas. Hayward led the Jazz in points, assists, field goal attempts, 3-point attempts and usage in 2016-17, and Thomas did the same for the Celtics, only on much greater volume across the board.
Even though Hayward played alongside an All-Star caliber point guard in George Hill last season, Hill only appeared in 49 games due to injury. Plus, Hill has spent most of his career sharing the court with other elite talents — Tim Duncan in San Antonio, Paul George in Indiana and Hayward in Utah — so he is used to having the ball in his hands far less than Thomas is.
That’s not to say Thomas and Hayward wouldn’t be able to coexist in Boston. It would just take them some time to figure out how they can continue to get their numbers within the flow of the offense. One of the reasons it would likely work: Thomas and Hayward are just as dangerous without the ball in their hands as they are with it.
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Thomas ranked in the 92.4 percentile with an average of 1.22 points per spot-up possession last season, and it made up 13.8 percent of his offense in total. Hayward was almost as accurate in those situations, ranking in the 84.1 percentile with 1.14 points per spot-up possession.
With Thomas leading the league in points scored off drives last season, having Hayward spot-up on the perimeter while Al Horford either cuts to the basket or makes himself available for a jump shot outside of the paint would obviously force defenses to make incredibly tough decisions in the half court.
Simply running Hayward off the 3-point line isn’t an option for the defense, either. If defenders are overly aggressive with their closeouts, he can put the ball on the floor and make plays for himself and others off the dribble. Almost a quarter of his offense came at the rim last season, where he made 69.2 percent of his attempts.
Hayward is also an excellent shooter off screens (83.0 percentile with 1.12 points per possession last season) and one of the better cutters in the league (84.9 percentile with 1.44 points per possession), which would add another interesting wrinkle to Stevens’ motion-based offense. Not only would it give Stevens another weapon to use following timeouts, but also the combination of Horford setting screens on Hayward while Thomas looks to score in isolation would put a lot of pressure on defenses to be engaged one through five.
Where Hayward would make the greatest impact on the Celtics is with his ability to create for himself. Just under half of his made shots last season were unassisted compared to 15.6 percent for Jae Crowder, 32.1 percent for Horford, 32.5 percent for Avery Bradley and 41.2 percent for Marcus Smart. Boston’s dependence on Thomas became a problem in the playoffs when teams started to trap him in the pick-and-roll in an effort to make other players beat them.
Horford can create for himself when needed — he’s been an efficient post-up scorer for many years — but having someone else who can take some of the pressure off Thomas and be a bigger scoring threat on the wing would make a tremendous difference to their offense.
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Hayward isn’t an isolation-heavy player, though. Instead, he scores 28.6 percent of his points in the pick-and-roll, where he ranked in the 87.1 percentile with 0.98 points per possession last season. In addition to improving his finishing at the rim, Hayward’s success in the pick-and-roll is mainly due to him being one of the better pull-up shooters in the NBA. He converted 41.1 percent of his 2-point pull-ups and 41.3 percent of his 3-point pull-ups last season. His effective field goal percentage of 47.0 in those situations was comparable to a number of other All-Stars such as Kawhi Leonard, James Harden, Kyrie Irving and Kemba Walker.
That means the Celtics would have two of the best pick-and-roll scorers in the NBA, both of whom are comfortable and capable scorers without the ball in their hands, paired with a highly skilled big man who can pop and roll. As long as they could figure out the balance of who attacks when, the offense has the mechanics to work well.
Hayward’s willingness to play power forward, where he logged 30 percent of his minutes last season, only adds to his value. A lineup of Thomas, Bradley, Crowder/Jaylen Brown, Hayward and Horford, for example, would give them shooting at every position and enough playmaking to take whatever the defense gives them. They’d be able to run a pick-and-roll with Thomas and Horford on one possession, only to then turn Thomas into a shooter while Hayward and Horford take center stage.
The Celtics could even run pick-and-rolls with Thomas and Hayward given Hayward’s ability to pop to the perimeter and attack smaller defenders on the block.
Hayward has developed into a great wing defender as well. He’s been on a number of defensive-minded Jazz teams in the past — they ranked No. 3 in defensive efficiency last season after ranking No. 7 the season before — and his combination of strength and athleticism means he can defend a number of opponents. It helps that he’s been able to play alongside the best rim protector in the NBA, but he’d be paired with another great defensive center in Horford.
Assuming the Celtics don’t have to part ways with Bradley and Crowder to acquire Hayward, they’d continue to have the backcourt defenders they need to match up with the league’s top guards and forwards.
To be clear, the Celtics probably aren’t a better team than the Cavaliers with Hayward on their current roster, but they would go from being arguably the weakest No. 1 seed in NBA history to the unquestioned second best team in the Eastern Conference that would still be in the running for the No. 1 seed. Hayward would make a top-10 offense scarier, and he would solve a lot of the problems they faced on that end of the floor against Bulls, Wizards and Cavaliers in the playoffs.
If teams continue to attack Thomas on defense, Hayward’s versatility as a scorer would also give the Celtics the option of turning him into the point guard in crunch time with defensive-minded players like Bradley, Crowder, Brown and Horford surrounding him.
Add one more piece to the equation — possibly the No. 3 pick in the 2017 NBA Draft or another All-Star itching to be traded — and the Celtics might be in business.
