NBA teams went overboard with their spending last offseason. In the first year of the league’s new $24 billion television deal, there was a whopping $1 billion available in spending among NBA teams. This offseason? A still high but not nearly as significant $400 million.
As a result, teams have been more conservative in general with their spending. Other than the Knicks offering Tim Hardaway Jr. $71 million over four seasons, there weren’t as many questionable signings in the summer of 2017. However, that doesn’t mean they all made sense.
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While there are at least eight free agents who will fit in perfectly with their new teams starting from next season, there are five in particular who might not experience a seamless transition.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at those five players in more detail.
Jamal Crawford and Taj Gibson, Timberwolves
The Taj Gibson signing is problematic because the Timberwolves don’t have many big men who are comfortable stretching the floor out to the 3-point line to begin with. Karl-Anthony Towns is obviously more than capable, but Gorgui Dieng attempted 0.5 3-pointers per game last season and Cole Aldrich has never attempted a 3-pointer in his NBA career. Gibson, meanwhile, made only three of the 13 catch-and-shoot 3-pointers he attempted last season. With Andrew Wiggins, Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague not being volume 3-point shooters in the backcourt, the addition of Gibson at power forward or center could make for a cramped floor.
(The spacing rating of Teague, Butler, Wiggins, Towns and Gibson, for what it’s worth, is only 13.3 percent. It’s similar to what Russell Westbrook dealt with playing alongside Victor Oladipo, Andre Roberson, Domantas Sabonis and Steven Adams last season.)
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3-point shooting obviously won’t be an issue for Jamal Crawford — he made 34.8 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3-pointers last season and 37.7 percent of his pull-up 3-pointers — but he’s at his best with the ball in his hands. 66.0 percent of his baskets last season were unassisted and 25.3 percent of his offense came on isolation possessions. Seeing as Wiggins, Butler and Towns are all primary ball handlers who score a high portion of their points in 1-on-1 situations, it could make for an awkward fit when three or four of them are on the court at the same time.
That’s not to say Gibson and Crawford can’t make a positive impact in Minnesota. Gibson is a versatile defender and a confident midrange shooter. The former will significantly help a team that ranked No. 26 in defensive efficiency last season whereas the latter will prevent teams from constantly clogging the paint. As for Crawford, having someone who can create his own shot at a decent rate can certainly be useful off the bench, especially if one of Wiggins or Butler has to miss time due to rest or injury. Crawford ranked in the 68.1 percentile with 0.92 points per isolation possession last season and was above average in the pick-and-roll.
Whether it’s good enough for the Timberwolves to reach their potential remains to be seen. But for almost $20 million combined next season, they have quite a lot riding on how Crawford and Gibson fit in.
Derrick Rose and Jose Calderon, Cavaliers
Derrick Rose’s role on the Cavaliers is another unknown. For as much as he has declined since he was named the youngest MVP in NBA history, Rose can still get to the basket in volume, and he’s still a decent finisher when he gets there. He shot 51.2 percent on drives last season, putting him at the same level as Isaiah Thomas, Kyrie Irving, John Wall and Russell Westbrook. He’s also coming off a season in which he knocked down over 40.0 percent of his midrange pull-ups and over 50.0 percent of his floaters, according to NBA.com, giving him just enough in his arsenal to score consistently against most defenses.
With the Cavaliers being one of the best 3-point shooting teams in the NBA, Rose is now in a situation where he can build on a bounce-back season and become a meaningful contributor for a championship contender. While he could be in Cleveland for only one season, it should set him up well for his next NBA contract.
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Even so, Rose struggled in three important areas last season: defense, 3-point shooting and passing, all of which are skills needed to take down the Warriors in the NBA Finals. It can be counterintuitive to evaluate how a free agent fits against only one team, especially when Rose signed for the minimum and has the potential to give his new team an easier road to the NBA Finals, but it’s what makes Rose’s addition a questionable one for the Cavaliers. Similar to Gibson and Crawford in Minnesota, there are certainly ways Rose can make a difference; he just won’t likely be the piece that helps the Cavaliers take down the Warriors if they meet again.
The same goes for Jose Calderon, who is almost the opposite player to Rose as a pass-first point guard who can space the floor at a high rate. Calderon at least gives Cleveland another shooter who can play next to LeBron James and Kyrie Irving (if he remains on the roster), but his problems defensively will keep him off the floor against the best teams in the league
Rudy Gay, Spurs
There is some guess work involved when it comes to evaluating Rudy Gay’s fit with the Spurs.
First, the good: Gay can score in a variety of ways and even ranked in the 71.7 percentile last season with 1.06 points per spot-up possession. With the way the Spurs have developed over the last couple of seasons, having an athletic wing who can create his own shot when needed and space the floor around Kawhi Leonard as a small forward or power forward will be a welcomed addition to the roster. Despite being miscast as a primary option for most of his career, Gay has proven to be a volume scorer with career averages of almost 20 points per game on a true shooting percentage of 53.2. As a second, third or even fourth option, he could be dynamite.
Now, the bad: Gay isn’t exactly known as a “Spurs player.” He has developed a reputation of putting up empty stats throughout his career, although the Kings were actually a more competitive team with him on the floor each season he was in Sacramento. For him to play well under Gregg Popovich, he’ll have to take on a role at 31 years old that we haven’t really seen him accept before.
Gay also suffered a brutal Achilles tear last season, and there isn’t a great track record of players his age bouncing back from it well. Fortunately for him, he’s in the perfect situation because the Spurs will handle his recovery with care and won’t rush him back even though he was their biggest acquisition this offseason. If there is a team that can help him make a full recovery, it’s the Spurs.
For those reasons, the Gay signing is a gamble for the Spurs. A worthwhile gamble considering the potential payoff — Gay turned down a $14 million option with the Kings next season to sign a two-year deal with the Spurs worth $17.2 million, which includes a player option — but a gamble nonetheless. Unlike the other players on this list, we’ll have to wait slightly longer to get an answer on Gay as well.
