It has been a roller coaster of a month in the NBA universe, with big developments across just about every opening-round playoff series. As bettors, we sometimes have to sit back and catch our breath when analyzing all the injuries, suspensions, chemistry issues, and momentum changers, but as long as the sportsbooks are open, there will be angles to attack.
The biggest storylines of the first round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs have been:
- The topsy-turvy battle between the Kings and the Warriors, including Draymond Green's suspension and now De'Aaron Fox's fractured finger on his shooting hand.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo being banged up for the Bucks, and Jimmy Butler turning superhuman to push the eighth-seeded Heat to a 3-1 lead over the top seed.
Man, talk about some meaty stories! The Kings went from becoming the first team to put Steph Curry in an 0-2 series hole to suddenly looking like they're going to blow that 0-2 lead with four consecutive losses. The Bucks, who were easily among the frontrunners to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy for the second time in three years, are now just barely clinging to their postseason lives.
Usually, the opening round is relatively boring to the seasoned fans and sharp betting communities, but the most engaged NBA circles are loving the product we are seeing on a nightly basis right now. Not surprisingly, betting action has been high, but the majority of bettors are hitting the moneylines, spreads, over/unders, and prop markets. Today we want to explore the futures and uncover where we think the most up-to-date narratives can win us some money on the Conference Championship and Finals boards.
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NBA Futures Odds: Best Finals and Conference Champion betting values
All odds are from BetMGM
Boston Celtics
Finals: +225 | East: -110
We were fading the Celtics a month ago, as it had looked like the Joe Mazzulla honeymoon phase had ended, Jaylen Brown fractured his face in a collision with Jayson Tatum, and the green-shamrocked road had gotten a little rocky.
But Boston has picked things back up, JB is unmasked, Tatum looks as good as ever, and Robert Williams looks to be regaining the form we saw from him on the Celtics' 2022 run to the Finals. Oh, and it doesn't hurt that Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon continues to impress as a spark plug, and Derrick White is playing the best basketball of his career. Dejounte Murray getting suspended for contact with a referee just served as icing on a sweet first-round cake for Green teamers.
That's just the good news from inside the Celtics' camp. Boston has also been fortunate enough to witness a development of tremendous importance: Jimmy Butler and the Heat have gone nuclear against Milwaukee and have the top-seeded Bucks on the brink of elimination. If Giannis and company indeed get bounced, the road to the Eastern Conference Championship would suddenly go through Boston.
That's huge, as the Green have gone 33-9 at TD Garden since the start of the 2022-23 season. That's a .791 winning percentage, for those who dislike quick math. Boston has also fared well against the 76ers, winning the regular-season series 3-1, and now that Joel Embiid is dealing with a sprained MCL, the path has started to look much, much smoother.
Unless Giannis's lower back makes a massive recovery in the next few days and Milwaukee defies the odds to bounce back from its 3-1 deficit, Boston will be favored from here on out. The two pesky dark horses — the Heat and likely the Knicks — will exchange blows in the second round in a battle to meet the favorites (top NY scorer Julius Randle is also banged up, and Tyler Herro is out for the remainder of the playoffs with a broken hand). Put some money down on the Celtics now because this price won't get any better moving forward.
Phoenix Suns
Finals: +400 | West: +150
The Suns looked like they were in trouble in Game 1 when Kawhi Leonard and the Clippers punched them in the mouth, but Kawhi has missed multiple games since then. Phoenix now looks to be cruising in fifth gear toward a 4-1 gentleman's sweep.
If Monty Williams' squad does indeed advance, Denver will be on the docket. The Nuggets will be coming off the most lopsided first-round matchup in the playoffs, likely a gentleman's sweep of their own against the often-bumbling Timberwolves.
Minnesota is currently without Naz Reid, Kyle Anderson, and Jaden McDaniels, so a series against this Wolves team does not very well prepare a top seed for a best-of-seven against Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and DeAndre Ayton.
Let's also note that Phoenix split its regular-season series with Denver 2-2 and was one overtime possession from a 3-1 series win. The Suns have always played Nikola Jokic and company hard, and Denver has never beaten Phoenix since KD landed in the Valley.
I'll say it right now — whoever wins the Suns-Nuggets series should win the West. The Grizzlies have been ravaged by injuries, and the Lakers are fool's gold after they scoot past the circus act that has become the Dillon Brooks Sideshow. The only other worthwhile bet comes from a usual suspect you probably aren't surprised to see listed next.
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Golden State Warriors
Finals: +800 | West: +325
We couldn't possibly leave the Dubs off this list. They are, after all, the defending champions. While it looked like their odds of going back-to-back were murky at best after Sacramento boat-raced them to a 2-0 hole, De'Aaron Fox's injury to his shooting finger and Domantas Sabonis's inability to bang down low without grabbing feet have this looking like a new series. Advantage: Champs.
Andrew Wiggins' return from personal stuff has been monumental to Steve Kerr's squad, and Kerr's recent move to bring Draymond Green off the bench was timely and impactful. We already know what kind of board-banging durability Kevon Looney offers, and the Splash Brothers can light up anybody who stands in their way. If the "others" like Jordan Poole, Moses Moody, and Donte DiVincenzo can pick things up, Golden State is right back in contention.
The biggest development in Golden State's favor, besides Fox's injury, is that the Warriors don't have to travel much at all through two friggin' rounds. They are facing their regional neighbors in Sac-town now and will most likely face Los Angeles next. The Lakers, meanwhile, have been flying to and from Memphis, and Denver and Phoenix will have to go back and forth between high-altitude settings during their series. Could the defending champions fall into the Finals once again? Nothing is impossible with these guys, so they're worth at least a modest wager before their price goes up.
