Before the 2023 NBA Finals between the Nuggets (-400) and Heat (+310) tip-off on Thursday, June 1, bettors should familiarize themselves with how the betting market projects this championship series to unfold.
Exactly how many games will this best-of-seven go? Which series spread bet warrants a wager? BetMGM has released several series-long futures props ahead of the Finals, and we've broken down our favorite picks for each prop.
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NBA Finals 2023 odds: Best series-long prop bets for Nuggets-Heat
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Series will end in exactly how many games?
| Series result | Odds |
| 4 games | +425 |
| 5 games | +190 |
| 6 games | +240 |
| 7 games | +240 |
Along with the betting market not respecting the Heat, the series-duration market isn't expecting this best-of-seven to be a lengthy one. In our series betting preview, we predicted the Nuggets to win their first-ever NBA Finals in five games, as we agree with the betting market's assessment of this series.
While the Heat's offense has risen to another level this postseason, we're unsure if they can maintain the same level of efficiency against a Nuggets bunch that has the personnel capable of slowing Miami down. Aaron Gordon has got the best chance to limit Jimmy Butler's effectiveness as a scorer relative to any other defender he's faced this postseason. According to Second Spectrum, Butler has scored only 11.4 points per 100 plays when defended by Aaron Gordon over the past three seasons, with an effective field goal percentage of only 26 percent.
MORE GAME 1:
Betting preview | Best props | Exotic props
Denver also ended the regular season sporting the league's second-best three-point defense, holding opponents to 33.4 percent from behind the arc, so there's a chance the Heat's red-hot three-point shooting numbers (39 percent) take a tumble.
While there's an element of luck in Denver's low opponent three-point shooting figures, Denver possesses a sound perimeter defense headlined by Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown, who could limit the effectiveness of Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, Max Strus, and Duncan Robinson (we'll see if Tyler Herro returns to the rotation).
We respect the Heat and commend them for being the second-ever No. 8 seed to reach the Finals, but can they really maintain a net rating of 32.3 in the clutch defending Denver's elite two-man game of Jokic and Murray?
Denver's offense is more versatile than the Celtics, attempting 7.3 fewer threes per game this postseason (31.4 3PA), while still donning a respectable 55.9 effective field goal percentage. Add in Denver's dominance inside Ball Arena (42-7 straight up) and we're expecting the Nuggets to hold serve in Games 1 and 2, split Games 3 and 4, and win their first-ever championship in Game 5.
Best Bet: 5 games (+190)
MORE NBA FINALS BETTING:
Series best bets | Series player props | MVP odds | ATS, O/U records
Series Spread
| Spread | Odds |
| Nuggets +2.5 games | -2500 |
| Nuggets +1.5 games | -700 |
| Nuggets -1.5 games | -175 |
| Heat +2.5 games | -145 |
| Nuggets -2.5 games | +120 |
| Heat +1.5 games | +145 |
| Heat -1.5 games | +500 |
| Heat -2.5 games | +1200 |
Sticking with the theme of Nuggets in five, we'd wager on the Nuggets series spread of -2.5 games at +120. Barring a significant injury, Denver's likely to sit close to four-dollar favorites in every home game this series, having a real shot to end the postseason with an unblemished home record.
Additionally, Denver's likely to close as short road favorites when the series shifts to Miami, and if it's able to hold serve at home and take a 2-0 series lead, the juice on its -2.5 games series spread won't be near the +120 mark.
Best Bet: Nuggets -2.5 games (+120)
MORE: Finals x-factors, Jokic vs. Butler, head-to-head records, more
Series Correct Score after 3 Games
| Series score | Odds |
| Nuggets 2-1 | +100 |
| Nuggets 3-0 | +230 |
| Heat 2-1 | +325 |
| Heat 3-0 | +1600 |
Predicting the correct series score after three games is a bit tougher, but the betting market's pricing this prop with the expectation that the Nuggets will hold a 2-1 series lead. We think Denver improves to 10-0 straight up inside Ball Arena this postseason, and with Denver likely sitting as a two or three-point favorite in Game 3, Miami's best chance to win a game relative to their implied win probability on BetMGM is in Game 3.
We're not as confident betting into this futures market, but we'd recommend either going the chalk route and banking on a 2-1 Nuggets lead or passing up on the prop entirely.
Best Bet: Nuggets 2-1 (+100) or pass
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Game/Series Double
| Series result | Odds |
| Nuggets to win Game 1 and Nuggets win the series | -250 |
| Heat to win Game 1 and Nuggets win the series | +500 |
| Nuggets to win Game 1 and Heat win the series | +700 |
| Heat to win Game 1 and Heat win the series | +800 |
While we understand one's hesitancy to lay -250 on a series-long prop, betting on Denver to win Game 1 and win the series at that price is an intriguing way to bet the Nuggets to win the title. Rather than laying the -400 price on the Nuggets to win the NBA Finals, parlaying Denver's Game 1 moneyline with its series price gives bettors some reduced juice here.
Best Bet: Nuggets to win Game 1 and Nuggets to win the series (-250)
