After all the hoopla about the Rockets and Celtics — along with the disappointment of the Raptors — the 2018 NBA Finals offers a familiar story: Cavs vs. Warriors.
It’s the fourth straight year that the two teams have met in the NBA Finals, but 2018 seems to be the most lopsided affair yet. The Cavs simply aren’t as good as they were a year ago, while the Warriors still have four All-Stars and two MVP-caliber players in Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant.
AccuScore has consistently picked the Warriors to win the title all postseason long, and a matchup with LeBron James and the Cavaliers did little to change the computer’s mind.
After simulating out the series 10,000 times, the Warriors are heavy favorites at 88.6 percent to win the series, including 21.6 percent to conquer the Cavs with a 4-0 sweep. In sharp contrast, the Cavaliers only have an 11.4 percent chance to win the series at any stage.
| Team | Win probability | Change from previous round |
| Warriors | 89% | +34.0% |
| Cavs | 11% | -6.3% |
The most probable outcome is 4-2 for the Warriors with 26.8 percent of simulations ending with Golden State celebrating on Cleveland’s court, but a 4-1 victory at home is close behind at 24.4 percent.
The Cavs’ best hope is a Game 7 victory, which only occurred in 4.1 percent of simulations. Whether in Oakland or Cleveland, Golden State projects to be the favorite in every game.