The 2023-24 NBA season is upon us.
Following a long offseason that began with one of the most-hyped prospects of all time being drafted and finished with two blockbuster trades, plenty of movement shifted the landscape of the league.
While the Nuggets and MVP favorite Nikola Jokic are sure to put together a strong title defense, new-look teams like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard and the Bucks or Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday and the Celtics will be trying to dethrone last year's champions.
Chet Holmgren and Scoot Henderson will look to disrupt Victor Wembanyama's run for Rookie of the Year while rising stars like Austin Reaves and Tyrese Maxey will try to out-leap Most Improved Player of the Year favorite Mikal Bridges.
We'll also have the first annual In-Season Tournament tipping off just two weeks into the season. There are picks to be made there, too.
The Sporting News has you covered with our best bets and sleepers for the 2024 NBA champion, In-Season Tournament champion and all the major player awards below.
All odds are courtesy of BetMGM Sportsbook as of Monday, Oct. 16.
NBA expert picks, best bets for 2023-24 season
NBA Finals champion best bet: Nuggets (+420)
The defending champions are coming in with the third-best odds to win the NBA Finals and for that reason, it's impossible to claim any other team as the "best bet."
Nikola Jokic just established himself as the clear best player in the world. Jamal Murray made it known that he is an All-Star caliber No. 2 option who is built for the spotlight. They still have Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Christian Braun from their championship core last season. Even after losing key rotation pieces like Bruce Brown and Jeff Green, Denver has mature prospects who are ready to step in and contribute.
Yes, the Celtics and Bucks have both built star-studded rosters to compete with the Nuggets, but Denver is still the clear favorite to come out of the West. Boston and Milwaukee appear to be poised for a fight to the death in the Eastern Conference Finals, at least on paper.
Getting Jokic and the Nuggets at +550 feels like a safe roll of the dice.
Sleeper: Clippers (+1800)
The Clippers are the ultimate "what if?" team. What if Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are both healthy — and stay healthy — come playoff time? What if they do end up trading for James Harden? Could the ring-hungry trio of Harden, George and Russell Westbrook finally get over the hump?
There are enough positives on the glass-half-full side of the "what ifs" to warrant a small wager on a long-odds play like this.
In-Season Tournament best bet: Bucks (+750)
The Bucks and Celtics (+700) are the two favorites to win the In-Season Tournament, the same way they are to win the NBA Finals.
The reason for choosing the Bucks over the Celtics for the In-Season Tournament champion is that Boston has more to figure out from a continuity standpoint than Milwaukee. Who will be the Celtics' starting five? Where do Porzingis and Holiday fit within their scoring totem pole? What's the bench rotation going to look like?
Meanwhile, the Bucks should click fairly easily with Lillard immediately becoming the 1B to Antetokounmpo's 1A. With the In-Season Tournament kicking off the second week of the season, Milwaukee should be ready to hit the ground running.
Sleeper: Kings (+1400)
The In-Season Tournament is tailor-made for teams like the Kings. They're a young, feisty group that is knocking on the door of being a title contender and could use this In-Season championship as a bit of self-motivation that they might be able to win the big one in June.
The Cavaliers (+1100), Timberwolves (+2500) and Thunder (+1800) are also good examples of this.
MVP best bet: Nikola Jokic (+400)
Jokic just missed out on being the fourth player in NBA history to win three straight MVP awards last season. While Joel Embiid more than deserved his hardware after leading the league in scoring for the second-consecutive season, you do have to wonder if voter fatigue played a role.
Jokic wasted no time to prove people wrong, going on to win his first NBA title and Finals MVP. He's going to flirt with averaging a triple-double again, he's consistently available with almost no injury history and there's no reason to believe the Nuggets won't finish with one of the NBA's best records.
Even though he's the favorite to win the award, Jokic is still your best bet to take home his third MVP trophy.
Sleeper: Jayson Tatum (+800)
Tatum has plenty of help around him, if the Celtics finish atop of the Eastern Conference — and perhaps, with the best record in the NBA — the franchise cornerstone will be impossible to ignore in the MVP race. He finished fourth in MVP voting last season, and that was with Boston coming in second in the East.
He's worth a sprinkle at +800 odds if you expect the Celtics to be as good as they're projected to be.
Rookie of the Year best bet: Victor Wembanyama (-145)
The most-hyped prospect since LeBron James, Wembanyama is the clear favorite to win Rookie of the Year — and rightfully so.
The 7-4 phenom will immediately become the Spurs' focal point on both ends of the floor. He'll be the No. 1 option on offense with a green light that should allow him to put up big numbers in his first NBA season. He'll be the last line of defense as a rim protector that could have him in the conversation for a spot on the All-Defensive Team.
If your book has an option to take the field over Wembanyama for Rookie of the Year, that would be a smart wager in case the young star misses any time due to injury. But otherwise, Wembanyama is the ROY favorite for a reason.
Sleeper: Scoot Henderson (+275)
If you're looking for a non-Wembanyama Rookie of the Year pick, Henderson is your best bet. While Holmgren (+275) has become a popular alternative pick, Henderson has a more direct path to putting up big numbers in his rookie season now that Lillard has moved on to Milwaukee. Holmgren will still have to find his role within the Thunder's talented core of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey and Jalen Williams.
Defensive Player of the Year best bet: Anthony Davis (+950)
Despite leading the NBA in blocks three times and having two All-Defensive First Team nominations to his name, Davis has never been crowned Defensive Player of the Year.
Injuries play a big part in that, only appearing in over 70 games twice in his 11-year career. With the NBA's new resting rules, this could be Davis' chance to take home the hardware if he can stay relatively healthy.
Davis will be the anchor of a Lakers' defense that finished just outside the top 10 in the league last season. When you look at the on/off numbers, Los Angeles would have had the best defensive rating in the NBA when Davis was on the court.
The risk here is banking on a clean bill of health, but Davis feels due to take home DPOY.
Sleeper: Bam Adebayo (+1000)
Adebayo has publicly campaigned for himself as the NBA's best defender for years now, and he's always in the mix to win Defensive Player of the Year. At +1000 odds, he's a great long-shot candidate as the anchor for a Miami team that consistently has one of the league's best defenses.
Sixth Man of the Year best bet: Caleb Martin (+2500)
At +2500, Martin could be considered more of a sleeper, but I don't exactly love any of the Sixth Man of the Year favorites.
This is a tricky award because guys like Derrick White (+800) or Chris Paul (+1600) would be a great choice, but it has not been confirmed that either of those players will come off the bench. They have both earned starts during the preseason and could be in and out of their starting lineups all season, rendering them ineligible for the award.
That leaves me itching to take a bigger swing to hope for the best, and Martin is a great long shot.
The Heat lost both Gabe Vincent and Max Strus this offseason — two key contributors on the offensive end. Martin burst onto the scene in the 2023 NBA Playoffs and the Heat will need his scoring output off the bench to stay competitive. Given the role he's expected to play, he's worth a flier at such long odds.
Sleeper: N/A
Most Improved Player of the Year pick: Mikal Bridges (+800)
Bridges is one of the favorites to win Most Improved Player of the Year after the leap he took once he was traded to Brooklyn last season.
It was always clear that the Suns had a special two-way talent in the Villanova product, but no one could have expected he was ready to become a No. 1 scoring option the way he did with the Nets. Over 26 games in Brooklyn, Bridges averaged 26.1 points, 4.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.0 steals per game. If he can produce at that level for an entire season, he won't just win Most Improved, he'll be a candidate for the All-Star team.
Bridges feels like a lock for this award.
Sleeper: Tyrese Maxey (+750)
Maxey's Most Improved odds are sure to shorten up the second Harden gets traded, so place your bets sooner rather than later. The 22-year-old is ready for a bigger role, as evidenced by averaging 20.3 points per game last season and being one of Philadelphia's most consistent playoff performers.
If Harden gets shipped out, Maxey will be ready to have a monster season.
