The NBA will hold its draft lottery on Tuesday, and with a field of players that has one clear-cut favorite at the top — Zion Williamson of Duke — there is sure to be plenty of drama once the ping-pong numbers are settled.
But what about No. 2?
That’s where things get tricky because the clear second-best player in this draft is point guard Ja Morant, and there will be teams in play for pick No. 2 with little interest in Morant. That’s going to leave open some opportunities either for a trade or a surprise pick at No. 2 — and the possibility that Morant hangs around until No. 3 or even No. 4.
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Atlanta is the chief among the no-Morant teams. The Hawks invested heavily in point guard Trae Young at least year’s draft, giving away a chance to draft Luka Doncic with the third pick and instead opting for Young, who rewarded the team’s faith when he averaged 24.7 points and 9.2 assists after the All-Star break.
If the Hawks land at No. 2, they won’t draft Morant. League sources told SN last week that, heading into the process, the Hawks favor Texas Tech wing Jarrett Culver, believing that his blend of athleticism and defensive prowess will make for a smooth transition to the league and that he can develop enough of a 3-point shot to be effective in the NBA.
Culver could be available at any spot in the top five, of course, and things could change based on how his workouts go in the next few weeks.
But if Atlanta winds up with the second pick, their choice likely would come down to Culver or a trade. Atlanta owns Dallas’ pick from last year’s trade, but it is protected for the top five. The Mavs’ pick currently sits ninth, but if that were to jump up to No. 2, Dallas would also be in an interesting position.
The Mavs want a point guard to play alongside Doncic, but Morant probably is not that guy. Dallas wants the ball to be in Doncic’s hands frequently, and it dealt with the issue of having Dennis Smith Jr. — a ball-dominant guard — with Doncic last year before dealing Smith away in the Kristaps Porzingis trade.
The Cavaliers are the other team with a young point guard in place in Collin Sexton, who could persuade management to look past Morant if the No. 2 pick falls to them. Sexton changed his midrange-heavy game as the season went on, and after the All-Star break, he averaged 20.8 points on 47.7 percent shooting and 41.3 percent 3-point shooting.
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Two teams with major free agents they want to keep — the Hornets (who hope to have Kemba Walker stay in place) and the Celtics (Kyrie Irving) — could move up to No. 2 and be tempted to pass on Morant.
The Wizards’ situation with point guard John Wall and his untradeable contract might nudge them toward passing on Morant and giving Wall a chance to rebuild his value when he returns from his Achilles tendon injury.
The Pelicans, too, have a veteran point guard, Jrue Holiday, who could keep them from drafting Morant if they move up to No. 2. The organization just hired new personnel chief David Griffin, and there’s still no indication whether Holiday will remain part of the team or be dealt as part of a major rebuilding effort. Griffin has said, as of now at least, that Holiday will be part of the team’s foundation.
The Knicks would be something of a mystery if they land the No. 2 pick. There would be the opportunity to trade the pick and come up with multiple assets, or New York could just draft Morant. With Smith Jr. and Frank Ntilikina on the roster, point guard is one of the few spots the Knicks would appear to have covered with young pieces, though neither may be of the star quality Morant appears to be.
In all, there are 14 teams with a shot at the No. 2 pick, where Morant is the clear choice. But half of those teams — Atlanta, Dallas, Cleveland, Charlotte, Boston, New Orleans and Washington — could have circumstances that would push them away from Morant.
Make no mistake, teams like the Suns, Bulls and Grizzlies will weep for joy if they land at No. 2 with a chance at Morant. But despite his obvious talent level, plenty of teams will be reluctant to take him.