With the NCAA tournament in the rearview mirror and the NBA regular season wrapping up, it's a good time to check on the latest 2023 NBA Draft lottery odds, aka the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes. The French sensation is the overwhelming favorite to be drafted No. 1 overall (-10000), according to Sports Interaction.
Wembanyama has been putting up ridiculous stat lines and throwing down highlight plays this season with Boulogne-Levallios in France's highest-tier professional league, and there's no doubt that Wemby will be the first player off the board on draft night, regardless of who has the pick. That's what makes this year's draft lottery (May 16) so intriguing. The Pistons, Rockets, and Spurs own the three worst records and will have an equal shot at landing the top pick (14 percent), but there's always the chance that a team outside of the top three makes a jump in the lottery and crashes the party.
Betting on the lottery isn't exactly a high-percentage play (unless you lay down action on multiple teams), but there are some angles you can play before the season is officially over. There are also some fun narratives to explore if you believe in things like the "law of averages."
Below, we'll look at the latest odds from Sports Interaction and discuss who are the favorites to win the No. 1 overall pick. We will also point out a couple of other teams who could move up in the lottery and potentially draft the French superstar.
NBA Draft 2023 Lottery Odds
All odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
| Team | Odds |
| Detroit Pistons | +442 |
| San Antonio Spurs | +442 |
| Houston Rockets | +442 |
| Charlotte Hornets | +479 |
| Portland Trail Blazers | +590 |
| Washington Wizards | +885 |
| Orlando Magic | +885 |
| Indiana Pacers | +885 |
| Utah Jazz | +1475 |
| Dallas Mavericks | +1844 |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | +1844 |
| Chicago Bulls | +1844 |
| Toronto Raptors | +2212 |
| Atlanta Hawks | +2581 |
| New Orleans Pelicans | +2950 |
| Minnesota Timberwolves | +7370 |
| Los Angeles Lakers | +7370 |
| Miami Heat | +11100 |
| Brooklyn Nets | +11100 |
| Golden State Warriors | +11100 |
| Los Angeles Clippers | +14700 |
NBA Draft 2023 Lottery Odds: Top-22 teams to land No. 1 overall pick
Lottery odds from Tankathon.com
Los Angeles Clippers (+14700, Implied probability: 0.68%)
Even if L.A., who's currently the West's No. 5 seed, drops two spots and lands in the play-in and loses two games, there's still less than a one-percent chance it will land the No. 1 pick. Save your money.
Golden State Warriors (+11100, Implied probability: 0.89%)
Like the Clippers, the Warriors are highly unlikely to land in the lottery, as they will either have a top-six seed in the West or likely win a game in the play-in tournament.
Brooklyn Nets (+11100, Implied probability: 0.89%)
The Nets are in a similar spot as the Warriors and Clippers, but if they do fall to the play-in tournament, they're not as much of a "sure thing" to win a game. Still, laying money down on the Nets to land the No. 1 pick seems like a complete waste of resources.
Miami Heat (+11100, Implied probability: 0.89%)
The Heat would love to have Wembanyama play with Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro, but even if Miami stays relegated to the play-in tournament and loses two games, it's highly unlikely it will land its first No. 1 overall pick in team history.
Los Angeles Lakers (+7370, Implied probability: 1.34%)
Even if the Lakers wind up in the lottery and miraculously win the Wemby sweepstakes, their first-round pick will be heading to the Pelicans because of the Anthony Davis trade. As funny as it would be for that to happen, there's no point in betting on it.
Minnesota Timberwolves (+7370, Implied probability: 1.34%)
The Wolves have won the lottery twice in the past eight years, so a third time in less than a decade seems unlikely, especially with their current odds. Of course, Minnesota's pick would go to the Jazz due to the Rudy Gobert trade anyway, so the basketball gods could further torture Wolves' fans by having their ping-pong ball pop up. If you believe in curses, lay $5 on the Wolves here. Otherwise, move on.
New Orleans Pelicans (+2950, Implied probability: 3.28%)
The Pelicans won the lottery just four years ago when a "generational" talent was available. Unfortunately, injuries have plagued Zion Williamson throughout his first few seasons in the league, but New Orleans surely won't be blessed with another "can't-miss" prospect, right? Probably not, so it's best to save your money, especially with the Pelicans in a good position to make the playoffs and avoid the lottery altogether.
Atlanta Hawks (+2581, Implied probability: 3.73%)
As with all teams that will at least be in the play-in tournament, there's no value in betting the Hawks to land the top overall pick. One could argue that they're "due" since they haven't drafted first since 1975, and their pick, David Thompson, wound up signing with the ABA's Denver Nuggets, but...nah.
Toronto Raptors (+2212, Implied probability: 4.33%)
The Raptors will also likely miss out on the No. 1 overall pick if they fail to make the playoffs. The last time Toronto had the No. 1 overall pick was in 2006 when they selected Andrea Bargnani after moving up from the fifth spot in the lottery. The Raptors only had an 8.8-percent chance to win that lottery, so don't expect lightning to strike again at even lower odds.
Chicago Bulls (+1844, Implied probability: 5.14%)
The Bulls are play-in bound and could play their way out of the lottery, but either way, don't expect Wembanyama to join Elton Brand and Derrick Rose as the only No. 1 overall picks in franchise history.
Oklahoma City Thunder (+1844, Implied probability: 5.14%)
The thought of Wemby with the Thunder's core is scary, especially with Chet Holmgren returning next year, but OKC will have less than a three-percent chance to land the top pick if it misses the playoffs.
Dallas Mavericks (+1844, Implied probability: 5.14%)
Dallas could use a player like Wembanyama to play alongside All-Star point guard Luka Doncic, but it still has a shot to make the play-in tournament (and, thus, the playoffs), so like all the teams above it on this list, it's best to save your money. Plus, you know the league has no interest in rewarding Mark Cuban.
Utah Jazz (+1475, Implied probability: 6.35%)
Many basketball fans thought the Jazz would tank this season after they traded Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell. However, they defied logic and made a real run at the play-in tourney. Getting Wembanyana to play alongside Lauri Markkanen would be a real coup, but with just a 4.5-percent chance at the top pick, there's little value in betting the Jazz to have another A+ start to their offseason by landing their first No. 1 pick in team history.
Indiana Pacers (+885, Implied probability: 10.15%)
The Pacers are another team with a bright future thanks to All-Star point guard Tyrese Haliburton. The former first-round pick had Indiana making some noise early in the season, but it's gradually fallen back into the Wemby sweepstakes. The Pacers could get as high as the fifth-best odds for landing the No. 1 pick (10.5 percent), so there's actually some potential value in betting on Indiana. It's more likely that the Pacers will remain with a 7.5-percent chance of winning the lottery, though, so bet accordingly.
Orlando Magic (+885, Implied probability: 10.15%)
Orlando had the No.1 overall pick in the last year's draft and took Paolo Banchero, the overwhelming favorite for Rookie of the Year. No chance the Magic get that lucky again, right? Well, it's happened before for this franchise when it took Shaquille O'Neal first overall in 1992 and shocked the world by landing the No. 1 pick again the next year despite just a 1.52-percent chance of winning the lottery. Like the Pacers, Orlando can still get the No. 5 spot and have a 10.5-percent chance of landing the top pick, so there's potential value with a franchise that's known for defying the odds.
Washington Wizards (+885, Implied probability: 10.15%)
The last time Washington had the first pick was in the 2010 NBA Draft when it took John Wall, which worked out fairly well for the franchise. The Wizards surprisingly moved up four spots in the lottery, as they had a 10.3-percent chance to get No. 1. Fans will hope for some luck again, as Washington is in that 7.5-10.5-percent range for winning the lottery, making it an intriguing value bet.
Portland Trail Blazers (+590, Implied probability: 14.49%)
This is where the draft lottery gets interesting, as the Trail Blazers could desperately use the No. 1 pick to take Wembanyama and pair him with Damian Lillard. The Blazers currently have the fifth-worst record, but they have to be careful not to win any more games, as they could "drop" to eighth worst. Given that possibility, there's little value in betting on Portland to land its first top-overall pick since 2007 (Greg Oden), but we wouldn't blame Blazers' fans for laying down $20 in the hopes of exercising their past draft demons.
Charlotte Hornets (+479, Implied probability: 17.27%)
The Charlotte fan base needs some buzz as it yearns for the days of Alonzo Mourning and Larry Johnson. The last time the Charlotte franchise had the No. 1 overall pick, it selected Johnson in the 1991 NBA Draft. The Hornets got lucky and moved up four spots in that lottery, as they had just a 10.6-percent chance at No. 1. This year, they'll have a 12.5-percent chance at the top spot, so you're not exactly getting any value with this bet, but if there was ever a team that was "due" for some good lottery luck, it's the Hornets.
Houston Rockets (+422, Implied probability: 19.16%)
The Rockets have a talented young frontcourt with Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith, but it would love to land Wembanyama with its first No. 1 overall pick since 2002 (Yao Ming). The year the Rockets drafted Yao, they had just an 8.9-percent chance to draft first, but they moved up four spots in the lottery to secure the future Hall-of-Famer. The Rockets certainly seem "due" for some good lottery luck, as they've had the worst record in the league the past two seasons but missed the top-overall pick both times. Mathematically, they have the exact same chance of landing the No. 1 pick as San Antonio and Detroit (14 percent), but karmically, it feels as if this could finally be their year. If you buy into such things, it might not be a bad idea to lay down a little money on the Rockets.
San Antonio Spurs (+422, Implied probability: 19.16%)
The last time San Antonio had the No. 1 overall pick, it drafted Tim Duncan in 1997. The Spurs moved up two spots in the lottery ahead of the Celtics and Grizzlies that year. This year, it will have the same lottery odds (14 percent) as the only two teams that could finish with a worse record (Detroit, Houston). Despite playing in a small market, the Spurs have been a model NBA franchise over the past two decades, so perhaps the basketball gods will reward them for that, but there aren't many "x factors" that make San Antonio stand out as a worthwhile bet. That said, no team has better odds than the Spurs, so putting down a little bit of action on Gregg Popovich's crew isn't the worst idea if you really want to bet on the lottery.
Detroit Pistons (+422, Implied probability: 19.16%)
It's tempting to dismiss the Pistons after they got the No. 1 overall pick in 2021 (Cade Cunningham), but ping-pong balls don't have a memory. No team has better odds (14 percent) than Detroit this year, so it could be the third team in NBA history to win the lottery twice in three years (Cavs, Clippers). Detroit has a ton of young talent, especially in the frontcourt with Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart, and James Wiseman, but if they were to get No. 1 and take Wembanyama, Dwane Casey would happily make it work.
