The 2019 NBA Draft lingered long past midnight, but the most significant picks were executed early Thursday evening.
And we’re not just talking about Zion Williamson and Ja Morant. We’re talking about the picks that genuinely will be debated in the months and years ahead, the ones that will make executives look like geniuses (the "steals") and the ones that will be stains on their resumes (the "reaches").
NBA DRAFT 2019:
Grades, analysis for first-round picks | Trade rumor roundup
But why wait for five years to learn which players will turn out to be bargains and which will be busts? We’ve got that list for you right now.
Biggest 2019 NBA Draft steals
Chuma Okeke, Auburn forward, Orlando Magic, No. 16: Okeke will not play for the Magic’s summer league team and very well might not score a point in an NBA game in 2019-20. That’s OK. If you saw "Goodfellas," you knew the crew couldn’t spend all the money from the Lufthansa heist right away, either.
Okeke will pay off in time.
Is he a great value pick at No. 16, given that he blew his ACL in March and might not be healthy enough to compete as a rookie? Yes, he is, because Okeke is 6-8 and an excellent long-distance shooter. He could have been more productive in an offense that was designed to incorporate him more often, but Auburn’s two excellent guards consumed nearly half of the Tigers’ shots.
Nassir Little, North Carolina wing, Portland Trail Blazers, No. 25: In conversations about the game of basketball, Roy Williams rarely has steered me wrong, so I’ll let him say it: "I know one thing — he is the absolute steal of the draft."
Little was expected to be selected in the late lottery by most draft analysts but fell toward the edge of the first round. Although he was well-coached during his time in Chapel Hill, the simple truth was he chose a college that already had a lottery pick at his position. Just no one realized it at the time.
Cameron Johnson had such a spectacular senior season he wound up shooting himself into the top 12 of the draft, and so Little’s opportunities to demonstrate his talent were fewer. But he remains a powerful athlete who attacks so suddenly he can get himself fouled and convert from the line. He earned 100 attempts in only 18 minutes per game.
The biggest concern about Little is his long-range shooting, which is deficient for a wing player. But at the 25th pick in the draft, there’s not much about which to complain.
Mfiondu Kabengele, Florida State forward, Los Angeles Clippers, No. 27: The weird thing about Kabengele lasting so long on the board is that some teams are so consumed with "upside" and "potential" they’re willing to select players who’ve barely played.
Kabengele at least played some.
He was not a starter at Florida State as a sophomore and ranked only fifth on the team in minutes, at just 21.6 per game. And yet, he led the team in scoring and blocks and was second among rotation players in rebounding and 3-point shooting. He grew to 6-10 within the past few years and is only beginning to learn what he can do with his size. There was some concern about the health of his knees before the draft process began, but all indications were that he checked out.
He’s going to be a very good NBA player, and there are going to be some very disappointed teams.
Keldon Johnson, Kentucky wing, San Antonio Spurs, No. 29: So maybe Johnson does not become a great NBA player. He’ll be a player, though. Given a bit of time to develop, he will be someone who always finds his way into a rotation and onto the court.
Johnson has a toughness about him that never will go out of style in this league. He is not an elite shooter, but he has a high release and accurate touch that resulted in 45 3-point makes (38.1 percent in 37 games). He is not an electric player off the bounce, but he was second among the Wildcats in free throw attempts.
He is not an explosive, above-the-rim player. He had only six blocks in 1,137 minutes. That’s why he dropped, and probably why he needed to return and show himself to be an elite shooter to climb higher in the draft. But he’ll be a bargain in the end.
Worst 2019 NBA Draft reaches
Cam Reddish, Duke wing, Atlanta Hawks, No. 10: It’s understandable when someone drops a top-five talent in your lap and you’re holding a double-digit pick, you might be compelled to seize that opportunity. Usually, though, there’s a reason for what seems like a lucky break.
In Reddish’s case, there are several. But it comes down to one thing: Does he really love the game?
Little about his performance with the Blue Devils suggested a passion for basketball, and that was no real surprise to those who’d seen him previously, because it was not evident at the high school level or in his time with the USA Basketball U19 national team. Those who’ve spent even a little time around successful NBA players such as Kevin Durant or LeBron James recognize how exhaustively they work to improve even long after they’ve banked in excess of $100 million.
If one does not have that hunger to play, to improve, he only is going to fall farther behind. Does getting paid to play suddenly turn Reddish into a champion?
It doesn’t seem logical, although certainly that possibility exists.
Matisse Thybulle, Washington wing, Philadelphia 76ers, No. 20: Matisse is the kind of young man you want in your organization. It’s hard for a rookie to change anyone’s culture, but he’s about as high-character a player as there was in this draft.
However, he plays a position at which shooting is absolutely essential. He was a career 35.8 percent shooter from long range in college, and only as a sophomore did he rise above 37 percent from behind the college line. Danny Green got progressively better in his time at North Carolina, until he was better than 40 percent as a senior. So even though his eventual success was something of a surprise, that it would come as a "3-and-D" guy had some basis in his college experience.
Thybulle was the National Defensive Player of the Year, but he’ll still have to convert to playing man-to-man after almost exclusively operating in a zone the past two years. The Sixers are betting on a massive improvement. There aren’t many guys I’d rather bet on, but I’d prefer better odds.
Darius Bazley, New Balance intern, Oklahoma City Thunder, No. 23: He dodged all competition possible by vacating his commitment to Syracuse in favor of the G League, abandoning his plan to compete in the G League in favor of a nebulous internship with the apparel company, then went to the combine and tested well. So he got picked.
Those who watched him play a lot in high school weren’t always wild about how he competed at that level. He averaged only 15.4 points against middling competition as a senior at Princeton High in suburban Cincinnati.
In its final rankings of the class of 2018, 247 Sports ranked him only 23rd. One of its analysts, Brian Snow, tweeted on the eve of the draft a prescient statement: "The value that the NBA places on the unknown is something I will never understand. But dear god, they love what they don’t know."
Jordan Poole, Michigan shooting guard, Golden State Warriors, No. 28: Who knows shooters better than the Warriors, right? Poole certainly is a talent with good size for his position, but John Beilein struggled to motivate him to compete for the Wolverines last season, and he often was at his least effective in the biggest games.
In three tries to beat rival Michigan State, he shot a combined 14-of-39, and in the NCAA Tournament loss to Texas Tech, he did not hit a 3-pointer. He hit only 36.9 percent of his 3-pointers in his one season as a full-time player. He does not handle the ball well and thus is not a threat to attack the lane. He attempted only 90 free throws in 1,224 minutes last season, which was a shame given that he converted at an 83.3 percent rate.
