All of us who follow basketball had heard every angle of discussion regarding erstwhile Duke Blue Devil and current New Orleans Pelican Zion Williamson: Whom does he resemble? Can his someone his size hold up over 80-plus games? Can he shoot well enough to become a great NBA player? How long will it take for him to become a superstar?
Steve "Homer" True, voice of the Marquette Golden Eagles and an afternoon host on ESPN radio in Milwaukee, came up with one that is entirely new.
With time running out on my draft-day appearance on his show, True asked a simple yes-or-no question: Will Zion end his career by being elected to the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame?
MORE: How Williamson will fit with Pelicans
And you think putting together a mock draft is tough?
My answer, quickly considered, was "Yes."
Then I thought it would be worth hearing what the public has to say, so I turned that into a Twitter poll. In four hours, 325 people voted; 56 percent said he would not make it and 44 percent asserted that he would be a Hall of Famer.
My friend @espnhomer presented me one of my favorite top-radio questions in decades of doing such interviews. A simple yes or no, does Zion Williamson make the Naismith Hall of Fame?
— Michael DeCourcy (@tsnmike) June 20, 2019
Obviously, a Twitter poll is unscientific and cannot be governed against the possibility people will vote "No" because of, say, Duke fatigue.
Projecting whether Williamson can become a Hall of Famer requires a consideration of how his entire career will play out. It is easy enough to say "No," because the odds are against any single player making it, but it would have been an obvious mistake to take that approach in 1985 (when Patrick Ewing was drafted) or 1992 (when Shaquille O'Neal went off the board) or 2003 (yeah, LeBron James isn't there yet, but all he needs to do is quit playing and wait five years).
MORE: Haven't seen Zion's best yet, HS coach says
Between 1985 (the first lottery draft) and 1996 (the most recent year enough top players were retired long enough to be eligible), 19 Hall of Famers were drafted in the first round, with just two taken in the second. That's an average of about two first-rounders going on to the Hall of Fame per year, including four who were selected first overall (Ewing, O'Neal, David Robinson and Allen Iverson). His status as the first pick in the draft elevates Williamson's odds to about 1-in-3.
Williamson looked very much like he could be that sort of player during his one year in NCAA basketball at Duke. He swept every player of the year award while averaging 22.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 1.8 blocks and 2.1 steals per game.
"He may be an All-Star right away," Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski told Yahoo! Sports prior to the draft. "There's no ceiling, really. He doesn't have a weakness. He may not shoot it as well as he will, but he shoots it well.
"He wants to be special. He's a gift from God, really, for a coach. I loved every second that I coached him."
He'll have to be unbelievably special to reach the Hall of Fame. The players who get that far are game-changers: Iverson, Steve Nash, Gary Payton, Alonzo Mourning. Zion is a long way from Springfield now, but every one of them was on draft night, as well.
