There’s a surprise in just about every NBA Draft. Whether it’s a player who entered the season under the radar before forcing his way up draft boards or a prospect who shows out after being taken too low, there’s always someone.
The trick is trying to figure out who that someone will be. Drafting is already a complicated process, and things don’t get easier as the pick number gets higher. But, if you’re an NBA team, your draft board can’t end at pick No. 30, so you’ve got to take a shot.
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Below, we’ll take a shot at finding some of those sleepers. The only rule is the player can’t have appeared in SN's initial first-round mock draft. All five guys are skilled, experienced college players, and most have a defensive baseline to act as a foundation. From potential late first-rounders to second-round potshots, here’s a look at five under-the-radar 2018 prospects.
Jacob Evans, SF, Cincinnati
Cincinnati’s Jacob Evans is posting one of the more ridiculous stat lines in the nation through three games. Evans is averaging 22.6 points, 8.7 rebounds and 8.7 assists per 40 minutes while posting a 67.0 true shooting percentage to kick off his junior campaign.
The 6-6 wing is a potentially versatile offensive piece. Last season, he finished in the 93rd percentile on catch-and-shoots, per Synergy, while flashing the ability to knock down shots coming off screens on a low number of attempts. Evans is a career 38.2 percent 3-point shooter on 314 college attempts. He’s also begun to show potential as a playmaker, although he still needs to improve as a finisher around the basket.
On the other end, Evans has upside as a multi-positional defender. Despite being an average athlete, he is capable of cutting off penetration at least at the college level. Evans is also a high-IQ defender as reflected by the 1.5 steals and 1.2 blocks per 40 minutes he’s averaged in three seasons with the Bearcats.
The bottom line is Evans fits the 3-and-D archetype that’s in high demand in the modern NBA with some potential upside centered around his creation ability. That may be enough to push him into the first-round conversation by the end of the season.
Tyler Hall, SG, Montana State
At some point during the NBA Draft, it becomes about finding prospects at least one NBA skill. Montana State’s Tyler Hall certainly has that. The 6-4 guard is probably the most accomplished shooting prospect in the 2018 player pool.
Hall has made 43.0 percent of his 532 college 3-pointers over three seasons with the Bobcats while hoisting 9.7 attempts per 40 minutes and shooting 85.0 percent from the foul line. Based on those inputs, the 20-year-old projects as around a 40.0 percent 3-point shooter a the next level, and given the importance of shooting in the modern NBA, Hall could stick.
What’s more exciting about Hall is the diversity of his shot-making. He’s not just a catch-and-shoot threat, although he averaged 1.286 points per possession (89th percentile) on those attempts last season, per Synergy. Hall also ranked in the 91st percentile shooting off screens as a sophomore and in the 95th percentile off the dribble despite taking the 16th most pull-ups in Division I.
The questions surrounding Hall obviously relate to nearly everything but the shooting. He’s a decent athlete, but we’ve seen him play against virtually no elite competition in college. Will he be able to create similar space offensively outside of the Big Sky? And can he become a competent enough defender to not get played off the floor?
Unfortunately, those are questions that might remain unanswered until we see Hall actually compete against NBA-caliber opponents, but his shot-making will at least put him in position to get that chance.
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Aaron Holiday, PG, UCLA
The 2017 NBA Draft was littered with high upside point guards, but the 2018 class is largely lacking at the position. Outside of Collin Sexton and Trevon Duval, barring unforeseen growth, there’s likely not a starting, quality point guard in this class. That said, there are plenty of college upperclassmen who have the potential to be serviceable NBA backups.
One of those players is UCLA’s Aaron Holiday, a 6-1 junior who started as a freshman before relinquishing that role to Lonzo Ball last season. Holiday is an interesting prospect because he combines high volume activity at the rim with outside shooting and strong point of attack defense.
Last season, Holiday finished 32.3 percent of his halfcourt possessions at the rim while averaging 1.293 points per possession (81st percentile), per Synergy. He’s a low-to-the-ground dribbler who can explode by defenders either in isolation or out of the pick-and-roll. Holiday is also a career 40.7 percent 3-point shooter over 241 attempts. In 2016-17, he ranked in the 99th percentile as a catch-and-shoot option.
Defensively, Holiday’s size will obviously limit him to being a one-position defender, but his quick hands and willingness to get inside the jersey of his man has produced 1.8 steals per 40 minutes over the course of his career.
Holiday isn’t exactly a high upside play, but his potential to be a solid pick early in the second round is worth noting given that he was largely overshadowed by Ball last season.
Markis McDuffie, SF, Wichita State
A 6-8 forward, Wichita State’s Markis McDuffie is another college prospect who potentially fits the 3-and-D mold. Playing primarily as a small-ball power forward, McDuffie helped lead the Shockers to one of the nation’s top defenses in 2016-17. He possesses the size, strength and toughness to battle against larger players on the interior and sufficient athleticism to keep up with guys on the perimeter. McDuffie also led Wichita State in steals last season, a sign of his defensive intelligence.
Much of McDuffie’s NBA potential hinges on his jump shot. He’s been a career 35.5 percent 3-point shooter so far, but his improvement as a foul shooter last season — he shot 81.9 percent on 144 attempts — suggests an improving and more repeatable stroke. At this stage, McDuffie is mostly a spot-up option rather than someone who can shoot on the move, but his ability to beat closeouts with straight line drives adds some diversity to his offensive game.
The 20-year-old has yet to play this season due to a stress fracture in his foot, so how he responds to the injury will be something worth watching as will how well he handles playing against the tougher competition of the American Athletic Conference on a regular basis. If McDuffie’s able to put everything together, though, he could be an intriguing second-round option should he opt to leave school early in the spring.
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Khyri Thomas, SG, Creighton
Creighton’s Khyri Thomas is a 6-3 shooting guard who stacks up as arguably the best perimeter defender in college basketball. Weighing in at 210 pounds and with a reported 6-10 wingspan, Thomas has nearly identical physical measurements to current rookie Donovan Mitchell.
Thomas’ defensive statistical profile doesn’t necessarily pop off the page, although he’s averaged 2.0 steals per 40 minutes over three seasons with the Bluejays. However, the tape looks good. Thomas is a pesky on-ball defender with quick hands who can disrupt opposing guards on drives to the rim. His long arms also give him more versatility than most players his height.
Given the defensive baseline, Thomas’ offensive performance will shape much of his upside. The 21-year-old has already posted some impressive shooting numbers. He’s knocked down 40.3 percent of his college 3s and ranked in the 90th percentile nationally on catch-and-shoot attempts in 2016-17, per Synergy. If Thomas can round out his offensive game either with a bit of pick-and-roll ball-handling or simply attacking closeouts, he’ll turn into a more intriguing second-round option.
So far this season, there have been a few positive development signs. Thomas is getting to the basket more frequently out of pick-and-roll, and he’s even knocked down a couple of jump shots off the dribble.