March is here, which means it’s time to dial into the top prospects in the NBA Draft. With the NCAA Tournament just weeks away, now seems like a good time to take a step back and reassess the top of the prospect pool.
The rigors of conference play put even the best collegians through the ringer. Now, the consensus that once centered around seven prospects — Deandre Ayton, Marvin Bagley III, Mohamed Bamba, Luka Doncic, Jaren Jackson Jr., Michael Porter Jr. and Trae Young — appears to be fracturing as the season comes to an end.
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Here’s a quick look at where the draft stock of those seven players is trending and why.
Deandre Ayton, C, Arizona
Age: 19.6 | Height: 7-1 | Weight: 250
Current rank: No. 5 | Trending: Up
Ayton checking in at No. 5 on our current big board shouldn’t be viewed as an accurate accounting of his actual talent, but rather as a reflection of the quality at the top of the 2018 NBA Draft. The improvements the Arizona freshman has made in recent weeks is narrowing the gap between him and those ranked above him in such a way that there isn’t much differentiation between Michigan State’s Jaren Jackson Jr. — the No. 2 player on our board — and Ayton at No. 5.
Since the beginning of February, Ayton is averaging 22.2 points, 14.6 rebounds and 2.4 blocks per 40 minutes. Those numbers are not significantly different from his season-long averages of 23.9 points, 13.7 rebounds and 2.3 blocks. However, in recent weeks, Ayton has delivered some eye-popping performances, including 26 points and 20 rebounds against California, 28 and 18 against Oregon and 25 and 16 against Arizona State.
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The 19-year-old has proven himself capable of physically dominating college frontcourts, especially as he’s somewhat limited his number of 3-point attempts, but questions remain about how his game translates to the NBA. Are his post-up and pick-and-pop offensive games something worth building around? And if so, how high is your team’s ceiling?
Then, there’s the defense. Ayton looks excellent sliding on the perimeter, but his rotations around the rim have been lackluster all season. For now, Ayton still sits just below a couple of other prospects in a second tier on our big board, but he’s on the rise and could show more in March to move up.
Marvin Bagley III, PF/C, Duke
Age: 18.9 | Height: 6-11 | Weight: 234
Current rank: No. 3 | Trending: Down
Bagley missed a few games in February with a knee sprain, but returned recently with his outing against North Carolina last Saturday exemplifying what he’s capable of. The soon-to-be 19-year-old finished with 21 points and 15 rebounds in a 74-64 win. For about 10 minutes of the second half, Bagley took over the game with his athleticism and motor, dominating on the offensive glass and running the floor in transition.
The Duke big man has established himself as one of the top finishers in the class. He ranks in the 97th percentile in terms of efficiency scoring around the basket on non-post-up attempts, per Synergy, and in the 97th percentile as the roll man on pick-and-roll plays. Many college bigs don’t get a lot of opportunities to actually roll to the basket out of ball screens, but it’s encouraging Bagley has yet to miss a shot in those situations, going 10-for-10. In particular, he’s shown good understanding and patience finding space on the roll.
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Bagley’s overall stock, though, seems to be trending downward, as he hasn’t shown as much improvement as one would hope from such a young prospect. Duke’s offense, which frequently used Bagley in a two-man game with senior guard Grayson Allen at the beginning of the season, has evolved into more of a high-low attack designed to integrate fellow freshman Wendell Carter while the Blue Devils have opted into a 2-3 zone on the other end that limits Bagley’s exposure — and arguably room for improvement — defensively.
I’m still buying Bagley because a bunch of the little things he does — passing on the move, pushing the ball in transition and finishing around the rim — could develop into an intriguing package that fits a modern NBA offense if he shoots reasonably well from behind the arc, but the bundle of big men at the top are quickly sliding much closer together.
Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas
Age: 19.8 | Height: 6-11 | Weight: 242
Current rank: No. 8 | Trending: Down
Bamba’s been absent from the Texas lineup for the past two games while dealing with a sprained toe, but he’s expected to return for the stretch run. Prior to his injury, he averaged 16.7 points, 13.4 rebounds and 4.2 blocks per 40 minutes in Big 12 play. It was a positive to see Bamba maintain his season averages over the course of the daunting league schedule, but NBA teams will probably be wondering about his skill progression.
The 19-year-old remains a bit aloof on the offensive end, frequently floating around the perimeter. He attempted more than 2.0 3-pointers per 40 minutes in Big 12 play despite being a 26.5 percent 3-point shooter on the season and converting just 68.1 percent of his foul shots. While it’s possible Bamba may develop into a competent 3-point shooter long-term, it’s clear he’s not there yet.
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When he does get an opportunity to play inside, he hasn’t been particularly effective. Bamba ranks in the 36th percentile as a post-up scorer, per Synergy, despite being the longest player in Division I. He also struggles finishing as the roll man in ball screen actions, averaging just 1.067 points per possession (30th percentile), per Synergy. Given Bamba should be dominating with his size in those spots, it’s concerning that he isn’t.
Like some of the other prospects on this list, Bamba has failed to show consistent growth over the course of the season, which is concerning given he’s one of the older first-year players in the class.
Luka Doncic, G, Real Madrid
Age: 19.0 | Height: 6-8 | Weight: 228
Current rank: No. 1 | Trending: Down
Doncic remains the top prospect on our big board despite a rough last ten games that encompass the entirety of February and the beginning of March. During that stretch, the 19-year-old is shooting a meager 20.8 percent from 3-point range and a paltry 68.5 percent from the foul line. Whether it’s tired legs from the amount of basketball he’s played over the last few years or simply a rough stretch, it’s a trend worth tracking.
He’s now shooting just 31.3 percent from deep on the season, although his fundamentals — namely the number of 3-point makes he knocks down per 40 minutes and his overall free throw percentage — still suggest he’ll be an above average 3-point shooter in the NBA.
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Even with his struggles, Doncic has still been productive, averaging 21.4 points, 6.9 rebounds and 6.7 assists per 40 minutes since the start of February. Those numbers don’t diverge too significantly from his season long numbers — 24.9 points, 8.6 rebounds and 7.2 assists — and perhaps suggest just how high the Real Madrid guard has set expectations.
The gap between Doncic and the college field is closing ever so slightly, but his historic success against high-level competition remains the separator.
Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C, Michigan State
Age: 18.5 | Height: 6-11 | Weight: 242
Current rank: No. 2 | Trending: Up
Jackson’s rise is largely powered by his unicorn credentials. The Michigan State freshman is averaging 20.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 5.6 blocks per 40 minutes while shooting 39.6 percent from behind the arc this season. It’s rare to find a 6-11 center who hoists more than 5.0 3s per 40 minutes with Jackson’s block rate.
The 18-year-old has continued to show growth in his offensive game as well, improving as a straight-line driver from the perimeter, and even occasionally flashing the ability to pass on the move.
However, Jackson’s play in the Big Ten has highlighted some long-term concerns. Averaging 5.8 fouls per 40 minutes, he still struggles to stay on the court due to foul trouble. That won’t be a death knell for his NBA career — both Karl-Anthony Towns and Joel Embiid averaged a similar number, for example — but it is a yellow flag.
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More concerning has been Jackson’s play around the rim offensively. Currently, the 6-11 freshman ranks in the 58th percentile scoring around around the basket on non-post-up plays, per Synergy. Certainly, some percentage of his struggles can be credited to a lack of easy dump offs players like Ayton, Bagley and Bamba receive, but even on those plays, Jackson lags behind the other elite bigs. Jackson may simply lack the vertical pop of some of the other top prospects.
In the NBA, his offensive game will be hindered if he’s only capable of popping to the 3-point line out of ball screens. Notably, Jackson’s registered zero possessions this season rolling to the basket, per Synergy.
Still, Jackson’s overall package resonates as valuable for the way modern NBA offenses work, and his defensive instincts are second to none at the top of the draft. As a result, he’s trending upward despite the warts on his resume.
Michael Porter Jr., SF/PF, Missouri
Age: 19.7 | Height: 6-10 | Weight: 215
Current rank: No. 6 | Trending: N/A
Porter hasn’t played this season, although there have been rumblings about a potential debut for a couple of weeks now. As such, Porter’s stock remains stable and heavily dependent on his medical records following back surgery. For now, we’ll just wait and see if we get a chance to watch him against college competition. If not, he’ll be judged on a far different sample size than the rest of the field.
Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma
Age: 19.4 | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 180
Current rank: No. 4 | Trending: Down
Young started the season on fire, but he’s regressed in recent months as Big 12 teams locked into their scouting reports. In a league that features a true round-robin regular season format, it was interesting to watch Young face opponents for a second time as they adapted their approaches and incorporated lessons from other teams.
Over the last half of the conference season dating back to the start of February, Young shot just 23.5 percent from behind the arc and worse than 50.0 percent on 2s. He’s now shooting 36.1 percent from deep this season. Like Doncic, however, his underlying numbers remain strong, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see an uptick in his percentages at the next level.
More concerning is Young’s reduced ability to get to the foul line. Over the nine-game stretch, he’s attempted 7.2 free throws per 40 minutes. His season-long average is 10.0. The Big 12’s bigs seem to have realized going straight up is an effective tactic to deny Young at the rim given he lacks much vertical pop and often relies on an awkward scoop layup to finish at the rim. If the 19-year-old isn’t getting to the line at a high rate, his efficiency declines significantly given his struggles to finish around the basket.
Also concerning has been Young’s defensive effort. With a slight frame and lacking strength, he’s already a questionable defender. There’s little margin for error. Over the last month, Young’s looked disengaged as he’s failed to fight over screens or rotate consistently. His performance in a loss at Kansas was particularly concerning. If Young’s effort is going to wax and wane, it’s worth beginning to factor in just how much defensive downside he has into his evaluation.
One positive for Young over this stretch has been his ability to influence games with his passing. The Oklahoma freshman is legitimately one of the top half-court passing prospects in recent years. He’ll benefit immensely from playing alongside NBA quality shot makers.
Given the importance of primary perimeter initiators in the NBA and the lack of them in this class, Young remains a top-five prospect on my board, but there are a few issues popping up with increasing regularity.