With Selection Sunday on the horizon, the 2017-18 college basketball season is nearing its end. Nets will be cut down, trophies will be hoisted and new stars will emerge during the year’s most exciting month.
It’s also a great time to evaluate how far many of 2018’s top NBA prospects have come. March is essentially a month-long sprint for front offices to get a final look at college basketball players in game environments.
NBA DRAFT 2018: Latest stock watch for top prospects
As such, we thought it would a good time to update our rankings of the top prospects eligible for the 2018 NBA Draft. Notably, these rankings are not a prediction of where the players might go on draft night. They also don’t account for the likelihood that a specific player might return to school in the fall.
However, they are a useful tool for gauging the value of each prospect and more practically, for the March Madness viewer, a guide to identify which players to keep an eye on.
Mixed throughout, you’ll find a handful of explainers identifying some of the prospects who have either made a big move since our last set of rankings or simply made an impression recently.
Here’s a look at our updated top 60 prospects for the 2018 NBA Draft...
1. Luka Doncic, G, Real Madrid
Height: 6-8 | Weight: 228 | Age: 19.0
2. Jaren Jackson Jr.
Height: 6-11 | Weight: 242 | Age: 18.5
When I wrote back in December that Michigan State freshman Jaren Jackson Jr. had the potential to find his way into the top five of the 2018 NBA Draft, I wasn’t expecting him to pass up many of the more heralded one-and-done big man prospects in the class while doing so.
Jackson’s unicorn credentials — his 39.6 percent 3-point shooting on nearly three attempts per game and the 5.7 blocks per 40 minutes he’s averaging — were certainly legitimate, but it seemed like his draft day ceiling would be at the back end of that grouping assuming similar development curves for most of the parties involved.
Obviously development curves vary by player, and for a prospect as young as Jackson, perhaps it should have been predictable he’d add more to his game than the others. The 18-year-old’s development this season has thrust him into this conversation as his improvement attacking off the dribble has raised his ceiling significantly. Jackson is more than just a 3-and-D center at this point. He has the potential to play a much bigger offensive role at the next level.
Typically, we talk about attacking closeouts on the perimeter in the context of wing players. The ability to do so effectively alters the ceiling of those prospects in a material way. It’s also, though, a game-changing skill for the best 3-point shooting bigs, and it’s one Jackson showed glimpses of all the way back in October during a preseason game against Ferris State:
The above clip isn’t a perfect example. Jackson has some time to set up his drive, but remember, this was his first game in a Michigan State uniform, and he was able to use his weak hand to take two dribbles inside the arc before elevating with a thunderous finish.
These plays have become a bit more frequent for Jackson as the season’s progressed. He’s even noticeably worked in advanced dribble moves on some occasions, turning the plays from simple straight line drives into jaw-dropping isolations:
The next step for Jackson will be making reads off the bounce, allowing him to adjust as the defense collapses down. He’s already flashed the occasional pass off one dribble and dump off down low:
Jackson’s progressions on the offensive end suggest he has a ceiling higher than the standard 3-and-D center archetype. That was always the thing holding him back. From Deandre Ayton to Marvin Bagley III to Mohamed Bamba, he already has the best defensive instincts of any of the top center prospects. Jackson has his warts to be sure — he fouls too much and weirdly struggles to finish around the basket in some situations — but his combination of two-way potential based on what we’ve seen this season is second to none among the big men in this class.
3. Marvin Bagley III, PF/C, Duke
Height: 6-11 | Weight: 234 | Age: 18.9
4. Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 180 | Age: 19.5
5. Deandre Ayton, C, Arizona
Height: 7-1 | Weight: 260 | Age: 19.6
6. Michael Porter Jr., SF/PF, Missouri
Height: 6-10 | Weight: 215 | Age: 19.7
7. Mikal Bridges, SG/SF, Villanova
Height: 6-7 | Weight: 210 | Age: 21.5
8. Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas
Height: 6-11 | Weight: 225 | Age: 19.8
9. Miles Bridges SF/PF, Michigan State
Height: 6-7 | Weight: 230 | Age: 19.9
10. Wendell Carter Jr., C, Duke
Height: 6-10 | Weight: 259 | Age: 18.9
11. Daniel Gafford, C, Arkansas
Height: 6-11 | Weight: 217 | Age: 19.4
12. Kevin Knox, SF/PF, Kentucky
Height: 6-9 | Weight: 215 | Age: 18.6
13. Collin Sexton, PG, Alabama
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 190 | Age: 19.2
Before Trae Young’s molten hot start launched him into the projected top 10, Alabama’s Sexton rated out as the most promising point guard prospect in the 2018 draft class. Nowadays, though, it’s getting tougher to find defenders of the aptly nicknamed “Young Bull.”
Sexton’s nickname is a reflection of his aggressive downhill play. His problem is that style hasn’t exactly been efficient this season. Sure, Sexton is averaging 24.9 points and drawing 7.6 fouls per 40 minutes, but he’s posting just a 47.7 effective field goal percentage, several points below the national average.
Inside the arc, the 6-3 guard is struggling around the basket. According to Hoop-Math, which tracks its around the rim numbers using plays tagged as layups or dunks, Sexton is shooting 57.0 percent at the rim on non-transition chances. That’s great, but incorporate some closer shots that aren’t explicitly layups, and things get dicey. Synergy’s half court numbers at the rim peg Sexton as just a 47.7 percent finisher.
Sexton’s jump shot also hasn’t improved from his high school days. He’s converted just 30.6 percent of his shots from behind the arc on more than 5.0 attempts per 40 minutes. He ranks in the 11th percentile nationally on catch-and-shoots as well, per Synergy, knocking down just 5-of-23 chances.
Certainly, NBA teams have to be hopeful Sexton will improve both as a finisher and a jump shooter, but franchises also have to evaluate what happens if he doesn’t — or at least doesn’t to a great degree. How good can an NBA offense be if its point guard relies heavily on getting to the foul line in order to generate respectable efficiency numbers? The ceiling is certainly much lower, and that’s why Sexton’s trending into the late lottery on our board.
14. Troy Brown, SG/SF, Oregon
Height: 6-7 | Weight: 215 | Age: 18.6
15. Lonnie Walker IV, SG, Miami (FL)
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 204 | Age: 19.2
16. Robert Williams III, PF/C, Texas A&M
Height: 6-10 | Weight: 240 | Age: 20.4
17, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG/SG, Kentucky
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 180 | Age: 19.7
18. Mitchell Robinson, C, N/A
Height: 7-0 | Weight: 223 | Age: 19.9
19. Dzanan Musa, SF, Cedevita
Height: 6-9 | Weight: 195 | Age: 18.8
20. De’Anthony Melton, SG, USC
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 190 | Age: 19.8
21. Khyri Thomas, SG, Creighton
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 210 | Age: 21.8
22. Keita Bates-Diop, SF/PF, Ohio State
Height: 6-7 | Weight: 235 | Age: 22.1
23. Jacob Evans, SG/SF, Cincinnati
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 210 | Age: 20.7
24. Zhaire Smith, SG, Texas Tech
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 195 | Age: 18.8
Chat anyone up about Texas Tech’s Zhaire Smith, and you’ll inevitably hear about his high school recruiting rank, so let’s get that out of the way. Smith, a 6-5 freshman wing, was ranked 194th in his high school class as a senior, according to 247Sports’ Composite Rankings. But that doesn’t mean he was some unknown quantity. Smith had offers from other power five programs, including Arkansas, Kansas State and Texas. Still, his rise to potential first-round prospect is improbable.
Digging into what makes Smith an interesting prospect requires overlooking his meager scoring numbers. Instead, it requires focusing on some of the things he does that have historically been found to be difficult to improve once a player reaches the NBA . The Texas Tech freshman has a foundation. The scoring can come later.
Smith is a noticeable athlete on the floor, both on the defensive end and on the offensive glass. He’s one of the best offensive rebounding guards in the country, which suggests a certain level of basketball IQ based on a good feel for the game. He’s also active defensively where he frequently is tasked with guarding the opposing team’s best perimeter player. Smith’s hustle translates to 1.6 steals and 1.4 blocks per 40 minutes.
The 18-year-old isn’t unskilled on the offensive end, either. He just doesn’t have a refined game yet. For example, although he’s not a high volume 3-point shooter, he’s elite attacking closeouts, averaging 1.375 points per possession (91st percentile) in those situations, per Synergy.
Smith may not have the traditional profile of a first-round prospect, but his statistical indicators and athleticism are a positive. At this point in the draft, there aren’t a ton of high-upside players available. Given Smith’s foundation, he could be one.
25. Chandler Hutchison, SF, Boise State
Height: 6-7 | Weight: 197 | Age: 21.9
26. De’Andre Hunter, SF/PF, Virginia
Height: 6-7 | Weight: 222 | Age: 20.3
27. Anfernee Simons, PG/SF, IMG Academy
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 180 | Age: 18.8
28. Jontay Porter, C, Missouri
Height: 6-11 | Weight: 240 | Age: 18.3
29. Melvin Frazier, SF, Tulane
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 200 | Age: 21.5
30. Landry Shamet, PG/SG, Wichita State
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 180 | Age: 21.0
31. Shake Milton, PG/SG, SMU
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 205 | Age: 21.5
32. Bruce Brown, SG, Miami (FL)
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 190 | Age: 21.6
33.Aaron Holiday, PG, UCLA
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 185 | Age: 21.4
34. Devonte’ Graham, PG, Kansas
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 185 | Age: 23.0
One year removed from taking a back seat behind Frank Mason, Graham has firmly established himself as one of the top points guards in college basketball this season. The newly-minted Big 12 Player of the Year is averaging 18.8 points, 7.7 assists and 4.3 rebounds per 40 minutes as a senior.
Graham pulls the strings for one of Division I’s most efficient offenses, often using ball screens to break down defenses, find shooters or create space for his jumper. At 0.952 points per possession, he ranks in the 86th percentile nationally scoring out of the pick-and-roll, per Synergy. Include his passes, and he jumps into the 94th percentile thanks to an effective roll man in Udoka Azubuike and a plethora of shooters on the perimeter.
Graham is a multi-dimensional threat in pick-and-roll. He’s a career 41.4 percent 3-point shooter over nearly 700 attempts and plenty capable of pulling up from deep, but he’s also comfortable settling into the midrange, attacking the basket or creating a passing lane with a ball fake:
The 23-year-old’s biggest problem comes around the hoop where he lacks the explosiveness to take on the biggest rim protectors. He ranks in just the 15th percentile nationally scoring at the rim, per Synergy, but he’s found success getting to the foul line this season, bumping his fouls drawn per 40 minutes rate up to 4.9 from 2.8 in 2016-7, per KenPom.
Graham won’t be a high-upside play in June’s draft, but his ability to orchestrate an offense and willingness to defend at the point of attack could give a team nice value on an initial contract.
35.Jalen Hudson, SF, Florida
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 192 | Age: 21.8
36. Jalen Brunson, PG, Villanova
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 190 | Age: 21.5
37. Josh Okogie, SG, Georgia Tech
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 213 | Age: 19.5
38. Elie Okobo, PG/SG, Pau-Orthez
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 180 | Age: 20.4
39. Shamorie Ponds, PG, St. John’s
Height: 6-1 | Weight: 175 | Age: 19.7
40. Chimezie Metu, PF/C, USC
Height: 6-11 | Weight: 225 | Age: 21.0
41. Jevon Carter, PG, West Virginia
Height: 6-2 | Weight: 205 | Age: 22.5
42. Trevon Duval, PG, Duke
Height: 6-3 | Weight: 186 | Age: 19.6
43. Killian Tillie, PF/C, Gonzaga
Height: 6-10 | Weight: 215 | Age: 20.0
44. Justin Jackson, SF/PF, Maryland
Height: 6-7 | Weight: 225 | Age: 21.1
45. Kevin Hervey, SF/PF, UT Arlington
Height: 6-7 | Weight: 230 | Age: 21.8
46. Jarrey Foster, SF, SMU
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 220 | Age: 21.3
47. Jerome Robinson, PG, Boston College
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 191 | Age: 21.0
48. Moritz Wagner, C, Michigan
Height: 6-11 | Weight: 242 | Age: 20.9
A year ago, Michigan’s Moritz Wagner went through the NBA Draft process before opting to return to school. The decision seems to have paid off in terms of his individual development.
Wagner’s always had an efficient perimeter game, and this season is no different. He’s averaging 21.4 points per 40 minutes on a 62.1 true shooting percentage as a junior.
Wagner is a career 38.5 percent 3-point shooter who is comfortable both popping and rolling out of ball screens. He’s also an effective straight-line driver against closeouts. This season, he’s averaging 1.333 points per possession (91st percentile) in those spots, per Synergy.
The important improvements have come on the defensive end. Although he hasn’t suddenly turned into a shot eraser at the rim, he’s improved significantly on the defensive boards, allowing his team to end possessions more easily. Wagner’s per-40 minute rebound numbers are up to 10.4 from 7.0, and his defensive rebound rate has jumped from 15.3 percent to 25.6. As a result, at least in part, Michigan’s team defense has gone from mediocre to elite.
Wagner’s never going to be a defensive anchor at the next level, but if a franchise can land a budget version of Lauri Markkanen in the second round, they’d probably be happy.
49. Grayson Allen, SG, Duke
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 205 | Age: 22.4
50. Josh Reaves
Height: 6-4 | Weight: 210 | Age: 20.8
51. Rui Hachimura, PF, Gonzaga
Height: 6-8 | Weight: 225 | Age: 20.1
52. Brandon McCoy, C, UNLV
Height: 7-0 | Weight: 250 | Age: 19.8
53. Rawle Alkins, SG/SF, Arizona
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 220 | Age: 20.4
54. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, SG, Virginia Tech
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 210 | Age: 19.5
55. Rodions Kurucs, SF, Barcelona
Height: 6-9 | Weight: 220 | Age: 20.1
56. Tony Carr, PG, Penn State
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 204 | Age: 20.4
Although ball movement is all the rage, individual shot creators still have an important place on NBA rosters. That’s where Penn State’s Tony Carr could come in. The 6-5 point guard enjoys a positional size advantage that translates into efficient isolation scoring.
This season, Carr’s averaging a point per possession (84th percentile) in isolation, while his 94 isolation possessions rate out as the 23rd-most in Division I, per Synergy. The 20-year-old is adept at rising up over smaller defenders, using his strength to bounce of bigger ones and has enough shake to create separation in the midrange:
Carr is a capable 3-point shooter as well, converting 40.9 percent of his 279 career attempts. As a sophomore, nearly 40.0 percent of his makes have been unassisted. Carr’s isolation scoring isn’t his only attractive skill — he’s averaging 5.4 rebounds and 5.4 assists per 40 minutes as well, for example — but it is his most marketable.
57. Tyus Battle, SG, Syracuse
Height: 6-6 | Weight: 205 | Age: 20.5
58. Isaac Bonga, SF, Frankfurt
Height: 6-9 | Weight: 200 | Age: 18.3
59. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, SG/SF, Kansas
Height: 6-8 | Weight: 205 | Age: 20.8
60. Hamidou Diallo, SG, Kentucky
Height: 6-5 | Weight: 198 | Age: 19.6
All statistics are via Sports Reference unless otherwise noted. They are current as of March 7, 2018.