As the second semester kicks off, 2018 NBA Draft talk is heating up. Last week, we released the latest version of our mock draft, an attempt to predict how the first round of June’s actual draft will go down.
This week, we’re doing something a bit different with a first crack at ranking prospects. From one through 60, this is a look at the top prospects eligible for the 2018 draft with no team fit influencing the decisions.
MOCK DRAFT: How high will Oklahoma's Trae Young go?
Interspersed throughout are 12 explainers devoted to players who, generally speaking, are either ranked higher or lower than their public consensus.
Here’s a look at the first big board of the season...
1. Luka Doncic, SG/SF, Real Madrid
2. Marvin Bagley, PF/C, Duke
I’ve already written about what makes Bagley a fascinating offensive talent, so I won’t rehash much of that here. He’s still dominating the offensive boards, doing a bit of creating and showing flashes of a jump shot, but for Bagley to be more than a super version of the Hawks’ John Collins (and worthy of a top-three pick), he needs to be impactful on the defensive end.
In general, starting quality centers in the modern NBA must to be able to protect the rim and/or function capably switching along the perimeter. Ideally, they’d do both. Bagley looks pretty good doing the latter. His athleticism and length are bothersome for opponents, but his fundamentals need to improve, and he occasionally gets caught on the wrong foot. Still, the foundation is strong. It’s the rim protection that has people worried.
Bagley’s averaging just 1.4 blocks per 40 minutes. Even Deandre Ayton, another big getting roasted for his lack of shot blocking, is posting more. However, there’s more hope in some other numbers and recent game film.
MORE: Fixing Duke's defense will be simple, but not easy
For starters, while Bagley lacks the traditional length of a center, he’s clearly still effective challenging shots around the rim when he’s there. Opponents are averaging just 0.667 points per possession (87th percentile) on shots around the basket when Bagley’s defending them, per Synergy.
The Duke defense as a whole has also been effective defending 2s when Bagley is the de facto center. In 143 possessions with Bagley on the floor and both Wendell Carter Jr. and Marques Bolden on the bench, opponents are converting just 41.9 percent on 2s against the Blue Devils compared to 46.0 percent in other combinations, per Hoop Lens.
Bagley’s game film in a loss to North Carolina State last weekend is also promising. The 18-year-old had three blocks (the box score says four, but a Carter block was inappropriately attributed) against the Wolfpack with each one coming in a different situation.
It’s nice to see improvements from Bagley in terms of his rotations and willingness to challenge shots. Duke had played just three games in a month leading into the N.C. State game, so he some extra time to practice during December. Maybe we’re seeing the fruits of that labor. I think we sometimes forget too easily that Bagley is still developing as a player. He’s far from a finished product.
3. Trae Young, PG, Oklahoma
A 6-3 point guard who went to high school about three miles away from the Oklahoma campus, Young didn’t even appear on our preseason mock draft after finishing as the No. 23 recruit in his high school class, according to the 247Sports Composite. Most people didn’t expect him to be a one-and-done. And even after he lit up the PK80 back in November , I wrote he felt "like a quality backup option who could go late in the first round."
We all look stupid now.
Young’s historic freshman season has continued apace. He’s averaging 29.4 points and 10.2 assists per game on a 63.2 true shooting percentage. No college player, freshman or otherwise, has hit those benchmarks in the last 25 years.
MORE: Even Stephen Curry is impressed by Young's play
Young’s style of play is built for the modern NBA where spacing is paramount. He’s capable of pulling up from well behind the NBA 3-point line with a quick and unexpected release. When defenders come out to meet them, he blows by them with hesitation moves or via a ball screen. Once he gets into an advantageous situation going downhill, he’s either getting to the foul line or finding an open teammate once the defense breaks down.
Young has his warts — his defense is poor, he needs to add upper body strength and he hasn’t shown he can get into his jumper from advanced dribble moves yet — but his gravity on the offensive end legitimately has a chance to be bend defenses and force scheme changes in the NBA. Few lead guards check that box.
4. Deandre Ayton, PF/C, Arizona
5. Michael Porter Jr., SF/PF, Missouri
6. Jaren Jackson Jr., PF/C, Michigan State
7. Mohamed Bamba, C, Texas
8. Collin Sexton, PG, Alabama
9. Mikal Bridges, SG/SF, Villanova
10. Kevin Knox, SF/PF, Kentucky
11. Miles Bridges, SF/PF, Michigan State
Bridges' decision to return to school was one of the most scrutinized moves of the college basketball offseason. He ended the 2016-17 season as a potential lottery pick with millions of dollars on the table. Many thought it was a mistake to turn down the money, but kids only get to go to college once, and Bridges felt Michigan State had unfinished business to handle.
While it doesn’t sound like the 6-7 combo forward returned primarily to impress NBA teams, his choice allows draft evaluators to get a second look, which has proven illuminating given he’s playing a new position.
Last season, Bridges spent nearly every possession as a small ball power forward, using his athleticism and quickness to attack mismatches against bigger defenders off the catch. This season, he’s slid over into a more traditional small forward role. That’s come with new responsibilities.
DeCOURCY: Why Miles Bridges decided to stay at Michigan State
Already, Bridges has finished 35 possessions either scoring or passing out of the pick-and-roll, per Synergy. He had 40 all of last season and struggled with them immensely. For example, of the 10 passes Bridges threw to spot up shooters, four of them were turnovers. This season, though, he’s been better overall with his passing numbers suppressed by some missed shots, but his scoring numbers up to 0.952 points per possession (81st percentile).
It’s already clear Bridges can be a versatile defender in a small ball four role tasked with shooting open 3s on offense, but can he be more? These type of creation possessions are important for defining Bridges’ ceiling. There’s still a ways to go — namely because his pull-up jumper has produced miserable results so far — but it’s promising to see him doing something new.
12. Wendell Carter Jr., PF/C, Duke
13. Robert Williams, PF/C, Texas A&M
14. Dzanan Musa, SF, Cedevita
15. Troy Brown, SG/SF, Oregon
16. De’Anthony Melton, SG, USC
Melton, a 6-4 guard, deserves a bit of the virtual ink because it’s probably odd seeing him this high given he hasn’t played a game this season. Prior to his sophomore campaign, Melton was linked to the college basketball bribery scandal that resulted in the arrest of USC associate head coach Tony Bland. The Trojans have since declared Melton ineligible as they work to resolve concerns associated with his NCAA status.
However, the 19-year-old’s freshman performance is sufficiently reflective of his NBA potential. Although Melton was far from an efficient scorer due in large part to his poor 3-point shooting, he did just about everything else well, averaging 4.7 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.9 steals and 1.0 blocks per contest. Future Hall of Famer Dwyane Wade is the only other freshman in the last 25 years to match those marks.
Melton embodies the versatility of the modern NBA. Defensively, his length allows him to guard multiple positions, he’s effective disrupting plays and he rebounds well for his size. On offense, he’s a capable playmaker for others and might even be able to play point guard in the right situation.
Melton’s jump shooting will dictate much of his upside. He shot just 28.4 percent from deep as a freshman, but his inputs — a 70.6 free throw percentage and 3.0 3-point attempts per 40 minutes — suggest he would make about a third of his attempts in the NBA without any mechanical improvement.
It would be nice to see Melton take the floor this season to gauge what progress he’s made over time, but his floor game is rare among college prospects, making him a worthwhile risk in the middle of the first round.
17. Mitchell Robinson, C, N/A
18. Anfernee Simons, PG/SG, IMG Academy
19. Lonnie Walker, SG, Miami
20. Daniel Gafford, C, Arkansas
21. Khyri Thomas, SG, Creighton
22. Bruce Brown, PG/SG, Miami
How you feel about Brown, a 6-5 combo guard, probably hinges a lot on how you feel about two things: his potential as a lead ball-handler and his 3-point shot. The sophomore is a bundle of athleticism, and he’s already shown he can be a versatile and effective defender, but questions surround what he can be on the offensive end, particularly as a scorer.
While Brown’s passing ability is there, his scoring ability as a lead ball-handler is questionable. This season, for example, he ranks in the 67th percentile scoring out of the pick-and-roll, per Synergy, but he’s scored just one point on nine isolation possessions. A big part of the problem is his lack of a pull-up jumper. In two seasons, Brown has made just nine of his 52 (17.3 percent) pull-up attempts, per Synergy. Without the threat of a jumper, Brown can’t put sufficient pressure on defenses.
NBA DRAFT: Bruce Brown, Lonnie Walker look to make history for Miami
Then, there’s the 3-ball. Brown is a career 32.6 percent shooter from behind the arc on just 3.6 attempts per 40 minutes. He’s struggled immensely from deep this year and — even more concerning — seen a dip in his percentage from the foul line.
There’s a ceiling outcome for Brown where he’s a 3-and-D combo guard who can handle the ball a bit. It would be a terrific fit on a team with a primary ball-handler on the wing, but he hasn’t displayed those offensive skills consistently enough yet in college. Factor in that he’s already 21 years old and has less time to improve than some of the younger players on this board, and you’ve got an answer for why he’s slotted in the early 20s rather than the teens.
23. Jacob Evans, SG/SF, Cincinnati
24. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG/SG, Kentucky
25. Landry Shamet, PG, Wichita State
26. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, SG, Virginia Tech
27. Shake Milton, PG/SG, SMU
28. Jarrey Foster, SG/SF, SMU
29. Chandler Hutchison, SF, Boise State
30. Jontay Porter, C, Missouri
Finding playable big men in the modern NBA isn’t exactly hard. With the proliferation of small ball, the supply of available bigs has outpaced demand for them. However, there are still certain situations in which certain bigs are uniquely useful, and that’s where Jontay Porter, the younger brother of Michael Porter Jr., could fit in.
The 18-year-old is extremely skilled for a big his age. He displays high level passing and playmaking for his teammates, as evidenced by his 3.9 assists per 40 minutes. He also has a developed jump shot. Porter is averaging 1.196 points per possession (86th percentile) on jumpers in the halfcourt, per Synergy. He is shooting 36.2 percent from 3-point range and posting an impressive 84.2 free throw percentage. Porter’s skill could make him a threat in dribble handoff actions and ball screens at the next level in ways other bigs in this class are not.
MORE: Latest news on Michael Porter Jr.'s recovery from back surgery
Defensively, there are some concerns about Porter, which is why he isn’t higher on this board. Although he is averaging 4.0 blocks per 40 minutes on a 10.4 percent block rate, he lacks the length and athleticism that would help suggest it will translate at the next level. That lack of mobility is also a problem when defending on the perimeter.
Still, there are few bigs as offensively skilled as Porter in this class. That’s why he rates out with a first round grade.
31. Jevon Carter, PG, West Virginia
Carter played a high-profile matchup last weekend against Oklahoma’s Trae Young that pitted the nation’s toughest defender against its most explosive offensive threat. Although the freshman managed 29 points, it took him 28 shooting possessions to get there, and he turned it over eight times.
The West Virginia senior lived up to his reputation as a defender, showcasing his quick hands, anticipation and strength. He’s agile enough to mirror his man all the way down the floor and pesky enough to force turnovers. Here’s a look at some of the things he accomplished against Young:
The matchup wasn’t one-sided. Young drew four fouls on Carter that limited his minutes, but the senior still came out on top. Carter represents an elite point of attack defender who can create a significant number of turnovers. He’s averaged 3.1 steals per 40 minutes over the course of his career.
The key for Carter as a prospect has been the development of his jump shot. Over the last two seasons, he’s shot 39.1 percent from behind the arc, and he’s up to 84.6 percent from the foul line this season. Carter may not profile as an offensive creator at the next level, but he could be a sort of 3-and-D point guard option next to a wing creator. Think about what Patrick Beverley provided next to James Harden. That’s a quality rotation piece.
32. Hamidou Diallo, SG, Kentucky
33. Trevon Duval, PG, Duke
Duval entered the season as a projected lottery pick. The 6-3 point guard was a five-star prospect coming out of high school known for his ball-handling, court vision and athleticism. So far, the positives have generally held up.
Duval is a low-to-the-ground dribbler who can win against most defenders at the college level. A full 36.0 percent of his field goal attempts in the halfcourt have come at the rim, per Hoop-Math, suggesting he’s consistently beating his man off the bounce. His passing has looked terrific in transition, even if it’s been a bit muted in the halfcourt due to Duke’s poor spacing. And the athleticism hasn’t changed, although it’s been disappointing in traffic.
STONE: What Texas vs. Duke taught us about Bagley, Bamba as prospects
Two things have Duval this low, though. The expected one is his lack of a jump shot — the reasoning is similar for Kentucky’s Hamidou Diallo. The 19-year-old is averaging just 0.592 points per possession (11th percentile) on jumpers in the halfcourt this season, per Synergy. He’s shooting 16.7 percent from behind the 3-point arc, and his 63.0 free throw percentage doesn’t offer much hope. College teams are already daring him to shoot when he catches it at the 3-point line. NBA teams will do the same, and Duval’s team will be worse off for it.
The second issue is unexpected. With a 6-10 wingspan, Duval has the potential to be an elite point of attack defender, and while he’s creating 2.3 steals per 40 minutes, his on-ball defense has been lackluster. The Blue Devils have consistently had problems with dribble penetration, and while much of that traces back to Grayson Allen and Gary Trent Jr., some of it falls on Duval. The bigger issue is the jump shot, but the defense is worth a note.
34. Killian Tillie, PF/C, Gonzaga
35. Brandon McCoy, C, UNLV
36. Chimezie Metu, PF/C, USC
37. Jalen Hudson, SG/SF, Florida
38. Grayson Allen, SG, Duke
39. Tyus Battle, Syracuse
40. Keita Bates-Diop, SF/PF, Ohio State
41. Aaron Holiday, PG, Duke
42. Rodions Kurucs, SF, Barcelona
43. Justin Jackson, SF/PF, Maryland
Jackson was one of the most difficult prospects to peg on the board because his sophomore season is so divergent from his freshman one, and now he’s set to miss the remainder of it with a torn labrum in his shoulder.
The former four-star recruit impressed as a freshman as a potential 3-and-D combo forward. At 6-7 with a 7-3 wingspan, Jackson has a physical profile that screams defensive versatility. Plus, he shot 43.8 percent from behind the arc on 4.6 attempts per 40 minutes. That was enough to overlook some struggles at the foul line.
As a sophomore, though, his 3-point shooting numbers stumbled. In 11 games, he converted just 10 of his 40 3-point attempts. Interestingly, he shot 82.8 percent from the foul line. In theory, those free throw attempts should be more insightful given they’re more repeatable than various 3-point attempts, but the drop in 3-point percentage is tough to ignore, even if it’s such a small sample.
Jackson may not be the lottery hopeful prospect that some thought he would be entering the season — he was No. 16 in our mock — but NBA teams could do a lot worse with their second-round picks. The 20-year-old is worth a shot in case he does turn out to be the versatile combo forward we all once thought he was.
44. Goga Bitadze, C, Mega Bemax
45. Devonte’ Graham, PG, Kansas
46. Austin Wiley, C, Auburn
47. Jarred Vanderbilt, SF/PF, Kentucky
48. Jalen Brunson, PG, Villanova
Although the 2018 NBA Draft doesn’t have the same point guard depth at the top 2017 had, there are a slew of backup point guard options that could be enticing in the late first or somewhere in the second round. In the choose your adventure book of backups, Villanova’s Brunson stands out as a reliable offensive engine.
Among players with at least 24.0 percent of his team’s possessions used, Brunson has the best offensive rating in the country, per KenPom, while averaging 25.4 points and 6.8 assists per 40 minutes on a ridiculous 70.0 true shooting percentage. Brunson ranks in the 99th percentile as a pick-and-roll scorer, 98th percentile on catch-and-shoots and 98th percentile on pull-ups, per Synergy. He is basically the pinnacle of efficiency.
Now, it’s just a question of how much will translate. Brunson isn’t much of an athlete. He’s crafty and resourceful. Will his game stand up when he’s consistently facing NBA opposition? Someone should find out.
49. Allonzo Trier, SG, Arizona
50. Trevon Bluiett, SG/SF, Xavier
51. Ethan Happ, PF/C, Wisconsin
52. Isaac Bonga, SF, Frankfurt
53. Markis McDuffie, SF/PF, Wichita State
Big wings that can play either forward spot are in high demand in the modern NBA with the advent of more switchable lineups, which is why Wichita State’s McDuffie makes an appearance on this board. He has 3-and-D potential with athleticism and length.
McDuffie, a 6-8 combo forward, missed the beginning of the season with a stress fracture in his foot. As a result, the Shockers’ overall defense struggled, missing out on his defensive rebounding and 1.8 steals per 40 minutes. McDuffie is frantic on the defensive end, flying around in rotations and darting into passing lanes. He has the potential to be a quality piece in a defensive scheme at the NBA level.
The key will be smoothing out his jump shot. McDuffie is a career 34.6 percent 3-point shooter over 179 total attempts. However, his inputs are promising. McDuffie’s attempted 6.5 3s per 40 minutes over three seasons at Wichita State and is a career 78.5 percent foul shooter, topping 80.0 percent over the last two seasons.
54. Brian Bowen, SG, N/A
55. Arnoldas Kulbolka, SF/PF, Capo d’Orlando
56. Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, SG/SF, Kansas
57. Lagerald Vick, SG/SF, Kansas
Vick burst onto the scene with a 28-point performance in the Jayhawks’ loss to Washington earlier this season. At the time, it felt like an overreaction given the way the Huskies’ schemed for the contest. Bill Self seemed to agree: "They pretty much said, Lagerald see if you can beat us. We didn’t do a great job, even though Lagerald got numbers they weren’t real numbers, they dared him to make a layup."
Indeed, Washington extended its zone out to the 3-point line and let Vick operate freely from the middle of the zone. He took 21 2s in the contest, nearly a fifth of the 112 total 2s he’s taken this season. Still, Vick is a real NBA prospect because of his length, athleticism and 3-point shooting.
MORE: Five under-the-radar players who could sneak up NBA Draft boards
At 6-5, he profiles primarily as a shooting guard, although he waffles between the two forward spots for Kansas. There is potentially some versatility there, although his defense is more theory than actuality at this point. He struggles with attentiveness off the ball and can get caught on his heels when defending penetrating guards.
Offensively, he’s been an accurate shooter over the course of his college career. Vick has knocked down 41.3 percent of his 3-point attempts in three seasons with the Jayhawks. His passing is also a green flag. Vick’s become more comfortable as a playmaker for others working in the Kansas weave offense.
It’s possible Vick will move up this board before the season’s up, but his defensive struggles are enough of a caution flag to put a pause on some of the hype.
58. Kevin Hervey, SF/PF, UT-Arlington
59. Rawle Alkins, SG/SF, Arizona
60. Alize Johnson, PF, Missouri State
All statistics are via Sports Reference unless otherwise noted. They are current as of Jan. 8.