NBA Championship odds 2023-24: Best bets, value picks, sleepers, and long shots to win the NBA Finals

We can barely contain our excitement — NBA basketball tips off on Tuesday, Oct. 24! While the betting activity on the opening night games will undoubtedly be massive, the days leading up to Tuesday will be dominated by the preseason futures market. Today, we will take a look at the 2023-24 NBA Finals odds and break down our best bets, top sleepers, and favorite long shots to hoist the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

As you could probably guess, the usual suspects comprise the NBA's most heavily bet championship teams. According to BetMGM, the top seven squads in terms of ticket and handle percentage include the Nuggets, Suns, Celtics, Warriors, Bucks, Lakers, and Heat.

Take a look at the biggest Finals liabilities on BetMGM:

In total, that short list accounts for 70 percent of tickets and over 85 percent of all money on the NBA champions market. That's massive! Should we follow the money and smash-bet the Nuggets to repeat, or should we look toward the stacked Suns or Celtics to go all the way? Maybe we can find better value and look instead for this year's version of the 2023 Nuggets?

MORE NBA FUTURES: MVP | ROY | Championship

Below, we will take a look at the full Finals odds board and then declare our best bets, top value picks, and favorite long shots to prevail as the next NBA champions.

NBA Championship winner odds 2023-24

Odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

NBA Championship winner 2023-24: Best bets

Best bet: Denver Nuggets (+450)

We almost went with the Celtics (+380) as the best bet after Brad Stevens' MasterClass offseason gifted Boston the best six-man rotation in hoops. However, we ultimately shied away given Boston's short odds, injury risks, and questionable front-court depth. The Nuggets remain a better overall team with the best overall player, and they deserve to be the odds-on leader in the clubhouse. 

What changed from four months ago? Mike Malone's squad lost Swiss Army knife Bruce Brown and added three-point shooter Justin Holiday. Beyond that, Denver's running it back. Count out Mike Malone's squad at your own risk. Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and the Nugs' supporting cast proved last season that doubters help fuel this team's internal fire. 

We already saw huge improvements from veteran Aaron Gordon and rookie Christian Braun during Denver's Finals run. Imagine if Michael Porter Jr. finally reaches his full potential as a lethal three-and-D star? The Nugs emerged victorious in June in spite of MPJ's struggles. If he had played better, they might have swept all four postseason series.

Jokic makes everyone around him better at all times. Malone is a hell of a coach and has every last bit of this organization bought into a culture of winning. Everyone plays defense, crashes boards, and pushes tempo. They also don't "load manage" because this franchise understands the importance of home court in the playoffs, especially in the mile-high altitude. All said, Denver went 44-8 at Ball Arena in 2022-23. We'll say it again: Bet against this team at your own risk. 

Top value: Los Angeles Lakers (+1100)

The start of last season looked pretty grim for the LeBron Lakers, who lost 10 of their first 12 games and owned a 13-20 record on Christmas. However, the modern-day GOAT put his 38-year-old afterburners on and logged his highest usage rate in 13 years, Austin Reaves broke out, Anthony Davis balled out, and Rob Pelinka saved the campaign with his midseason deals. L.A. went 18-8 after the trade deadline and cruised to the Western Conference Finals despite Bron playing with a torn tendon in his foot.

Newsflash: the Lakers got even better — and presumably healthier — this offseason. Pelinka brought in point guard Gabe Vincent after he helped the Heat upset its way into the Finals. He added three-and-D wing Taurean Prince and re-signed key 2022 contributors Reaves and Rui Hachimura. They added big-man depth with discount deals on Jaxson Hayes and Christian Wood.

What we're seeing from the Lakers this preseason is that they have an identity again. Darvin Ham seems much more comfortable than he looked last fall and winter. A full season with Reaves in the starting five should provide more end-to-end stability. D'Angelo Russell could also be ready to take a step forward. He reportedly spent a lot of time with Bron and AD this summer, and we like him to be more confident as L.A.'s floor general this season.

It also helps that Los Angeles spaces the floor so much better now that it has some shooters. Through four preseason games, Darvin Ham's squad was taking 38.3 three-pointers per game (eight more than L.A. averaged last season) and shooting 38.3 percent of those shots (compared to 34.4 percent last season, fourth-worst in the NBA). 

Best sleeper: Cleveland Cavaliers (+3000)

The Cavs start the season with elite offensive weapons in Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, twin-tower defensive anchors in Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, and (finally) a three-point marksman to space the floor in the recently acquired Max Strus. Whether Mitchell and Allen stay put or get dealt for better fits around DG and Mobley, we like Cleveland to make some noise this season. 

If not for Mike Brown and the Kings' magical home stretch last season, J.B. Bickerstaff would have a Coach of the Year trophy in his office right now. The Cavs had the best scoring defense in the NBA last season, allowing 106.5 points per game and 104.6 at home. When all was said and done, they were sandwiched between the Celtics and Nuggets in average scoring margin (+4.8). Talk about fine company to find yourself in.

As always, health will be paramount to this team's success, and Koby Altman and company will need to make moves sooner rather than later if he's planning on shape-shifting Cleveland's core rotation around its two young stars. In terms of sheer value, there aren't many better bets on the NBA Finals odds board. The Cavs went 51-31 last year, just two fewer wins than the eventual champs, and they maintained a 31-10 home record. If Bickerstaff's boys secure the No. 1 seed in the East, they will be a tough out in the postseason. 

Best long shot: New York Knicks (+5000) 

The Knicks had a damn good end of the 2022-23 season, finishing 17-8 after acquiring Josh Hart and reuniting him with former Villanova teammate Jalen Brunson. Tom Thibodeau's squad forced the red-hot Heat into a Game 6 but fell short by four points. 

Since then, New York has acquired yet another Wildcat, adding outside shooter Donte DiVincenzo to the mix. The trade rumors swirling around Julius Randle and RJ Barrett actually give us more excitement about this team's chances at contending. Randle is the least effective All-Star in hoops — especially at crunch time — and Barrett epitomizes inefficiency.

If a rival GM offers real offensive value for these guys at any point this season, the Knicks should pounce and go all-in on a championship run. They were pretty close last year despite the limitations of Randle and Barrett, so James Harden, Paul George, or Donovan Mitchell could take them over the top.