It may sound cliche, but every NBA game matters for something at this stage of the season. For the Raptors and Heat tonight, a win would be huge for either team's desperate pursuit to get out of the play-in tournament and into the more secure six-seed. We have all the odds, trends, analysis, and best bets to get you ready to wager on this pivotal Eastern Conference tilt.
What a difference a year makes! Around this time last season, the 53-29 Heat earned the No. 1 seed in the East while the 48-34 Raptors finished the regular season in the fifth spot. Now Miami is 40-35 and staring down the very real possibility that it will play the NBA's version of a wild card game to get into the dance. With the news early this afternoon that Jimmy Butler is "questionable" to play because of a neck injury, the collective anxiety of Heat Nation will be high (UPDATE: Butler is confirmed OUT for the contest).
Brooklyn just leap-frogged Erik Spoelstra's team for the six-seed, virtually tied with the Heat but owning the regular-season tiebreaker. All-Star center Bam Adebayo and reigning Sixth Man of the Year Tyler Herro might have to step up big time, along with former Raptor Kyle Lowry.
As for the 37-38 Raps, they would love to move up to No. 8 in the East, but Atlanta currently owns that seed and a tiebreaker over Toronto. The onus will be on Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam to win big games like tonight's if they want to safely make the playoffs. As it currently stands, Toronto would have to win two play-in games, one of which could very well be against Miami.
Got all that? Don't worry — it will get more complicated by next week. All but one team in the NBA has fewer than eight games remaining, which means the tight-as-ever playoff race could go in dozens of different directions between now and the start of the play-in tourney on April 11.
But right now, all we care about is the Raptors vs. Heat. Can Nick Nurse's squad hold court at Scotiabank Arena, or will Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and company play Tuesday-night spoilers in Toronto? Let's dive into the odds and make our best bets.
Raptors vs. Heat odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Heat +5.5 (-110) | Raptors -5.5 (-110)
- Total: Over 218.5 (-115) | Under 218.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Heat +170 | Raptors -210
Miami initially got the -3.5 nod as the team with the better record, better coach, and better overall depth, but then Jimmy Butler was declared "questionable" for the contest at 1:30 ET this afternoon, swinging the spread all the way from Toronto +3.5 to -4.5. Now with Butler confirmed OUT, the Raptors are up to -5.5, proving that oddsmakers clearly value the importance of Butler to this Miami team.
For us, this just reinforces our initial betting notion. My narrative even with Butler on the floor was going to be "how can we trust backing the Heat?" They are an NBA-worst 27-45-3 against the spread this season, 14-20-1 ATS on the road, and 7-11-1 ATS as an away favorite. Miami's 14-21 road record sits amongst the six worst in the Eastern Conference.
Toronto has struggled even more on the road, but the Raptors do have a 25-14 home record. Nurse's squad has also won five of its past seven games while going 4-1-2 ATS during that span.
Both of these squads struggle to put the ball in the basket, shooting just 45.7 percent from the field (tied for fourth worst in the NBA). That explains the relatively low over/under of 219.5, a number we think yields plenty of value going into the Scotiabank tilt.
The OVER has hit in six of Miami's past eight games, while Raptors games have maintained OVER records of 7-4-1 since the beginning of March. The average total of Miami's past seven games in which Butler was sidelined is 223.7. Miami has gone 8-7 without its superstar on the court, but only three of those Ws were against playoff teams.
If you just quickly glance at each team's numbers on the season, you will see Miami averages and allows 109 points (and change) per game and Toronto scores around 113 while surrendering 111. But Miami is scoring 116 points per game since the All-Star break and a healthy 116.8 in March. That's six more ppg than the Heat averaged in February and a whopping 12 more ppg than they scored in January! Toronto, meanwhile, has averaged 111.8 ppg in March, just about in line with its median seasonal numbers.
The initial thought when this game pops up is that Miami will stifle a top-heavy Toronto lineup with defense and physicality, but the Heat haven't exactly been enforcers on the road, especially when Butler is out or questionable. The Raps have also been a lot tougher on the interior since Jakob Poeltl came back home via a deadline deal with San Antonio. For now, I'll be doing a mini-teaser with Toronto -1.5 and the OVER of 214.5, but I would comfortably bet Toronto -5.5 now that Butler has been confirmed out.
Best Bet: Mini-teaser: Raptors -1.5, OVER 215.5 (-110)
Raptors vs. Heat best player prop bet: OG Anunoby OVER 2.5 steals + blocks (+125)
I always get sucked into these steals + blocks props when I see plus odds, but how can we not like this one? Anunoby is one of the best perimeter defenders in the NBA, and Miami gets sloppy with Butler banged up or on the sidelines. Anunoby had a steal and three blocks in Toronto's last game against the Wizards, and he has logged three-plus "stocks" in two of the past three games and five of the past nine. We'll take these odds and laugh all the way to Scotiabank when OG smashes the OVER for us.
