In the second 2023 NBA Play-in Tournament game on Friday night, the No. 10 seed Thunder will head to the Twin Cities to play the No. 8 seed Timberwolves at 9:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). The Wolves won the season series (3-1), with OKC's only win coming at the Target Center on Dec. 3 (135-128). In that game, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropped 33 points (10-17 FG, 12-12 FT) and six assists, while Josh Giddey added 21 points, 12 rebounds, and seven assists.
The Gilgeous-Alexander/Giddey duo played outstanding in OKC's 123-118 play-in win over the Pelicans. Gilgeous-Alexander led all scorers with 32 points and produced five rebounds, three assists, and three steals. Meanwhile, Giddey fell one rebound short of a triple-double, putting on an offensive masterclass with 31 points, 10 assists, and nine rebounds. The Thunder also received a noticeable boost from Luguentz Dort, who scored 27 points on 8-of-14 shooting from the field and 4-of-8 from three-point range. It was a complete team effort from the Thunder, who joined the Bulls as the first No. 10 seeds to win in the Play-In Tournament.
As for the Timberwolves, they will get a second chance to make the playoffs after losing to the Lakers 108-102 in overtime on Tuesday night. Karl-Anthony Towns (24 points, 11 rebounds, and five assists), Mike Conley (23 points, 6-8 3pt), and Taurean Prince (14 points, 4-7 3pt) all came through. However, Anthony Edwards struggled, scoring just nine points (3-17 FG, 0-9 3pt) with eight rebounds and five assists. For the Wolves to win on Friday, they will need a better shooting performance from Edwards, who was an All-Star this season.
Can the Wolves salvage their season and find a way into the playoffs, or will the Thunder prove the doubters wrong and take the eighth seed? Below, we'll break down Friday night's Thunder-Wolves matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the NBA Play-In Tournament.
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Thunder vs. Timberwolves odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Thunder +5.5 (-110); Timberwolves -5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: OVER 228.5 (-110); UNDER 228.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Thunder +180; Pelicans -225
The Timberwolves will try to right the ship on Friday night at home, where they had a 22-19 record during the regular season. Coincidentally, Minnesota was 19-22 against the spread at home this season and 8-17 ATS as a home favorite. The Wolves are also 12-13 straight up as home favorites, which might not inspire a lot of confidence to bet on them. However, they should be getting back defensive stalwart Rudy Gobert, who was suspended for Tuesday night against the Lakers.
If Gobert and Towns are playing on Friday night, it will give Minnesota a significant advantage inside the paint, as the Thunder don't have a big man to match up with them inside the post. Gobert averaged 14.7 points and 11.7 rebounds per game in three regular-season games against OKC. Meanwhile, Towns posted 13.5 points, seven rebounds, and six assists per game against the Thunder this season (two games).
However, bettors should not count out the Thunder, who covered the spread (+5.5) for us in their five-point win over the Pelicans. Oklahoma City continues to dominate as an underdog this season, going 30-21-3 (including the Play-In Tournament) and 20-11-3 as road 'dogs. In their win over the Pelicans, we saw OKC's pace play a factor, as they dropped 123 points on 45.7 percent shooting from the field. The Thunder also did a great job of taking care of the ball (seven turnovers) and held New Orleans to 32.1 percent shooting from three-point range.
During the regular season, the Wolves shot 36.5 percent from three-point range (13th-best in the NBA) but averaged 15.3 turnovers per game (27th in the NBA). If the Thunder can win the turnover battle and keep Minnesota in check from beyond the arc, they will have a chance to win. That said, we'll take the Thunder to cover the spread but the Wolves to win. The presence of Gobert and KAT gives the Wolves a significant advantage on both ends, and we shouldn't expect Edwards to have another poor shooting performance.
Prediction: Timberwolves 115, Thunder 112. The Thunder (+5.5) cover the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (228.5)
Best player prop bet for Thunder vs. Timberwolves: Mike Conley OVER 2.5 three-pointers (+105)
Everybody is slamming Gobert rebounding props for Friday night's contest, but we will pivot and bank on Conley staying hot from three-point range. The veteran point guard was dialed in against the Lakers, shooting six-of-eight from beyond the arc. It was the first time this season that Conley made six threes in a game. He will now face the Thunder, who allowed opponents to shoot 35.8 percent from three-point range during the season. OKC also allows the seventh-most three-pointers made per game to PGs (3.02). This is a good spot for Conley, who has made more than 2.5 threes in five out of his past 10 games.
