As the 2022 NBA regular season quickly approaches the finish line and the 2023 NBA Playoffs enter into focus, the Western Conference remains a parity-filled madhouse while the top five in the Eastern Conference looks all but settled. But don't get the false impression that most of the East has nothing to play for during the home stretch. Teams like the 76ers and Raptors — who face off tonight in Philadelphia (7 p.m. ET) — have plenty on the line. Today we'll break down the Philly-Toronto clash, analyze the odds, and use stats and betting trends to arrive at a best bet and prediction.
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For Philadelphia (50-26), it's looking more and more like the three-seed will be its home for the postseason. The Celtics (53-24) just defeated the top-seeded Bucks (55-22), putting the deficit between the Sixers and Milwaukee at 4.5 games and the space between Boston and Philly at 2.5. With each team just five or six games from the end of the season, these seeds might as well be etched into stone.
But what's not etched in stone is the Most Valuable Player award, a coveted and elusive prize that has narrowly evaded Sixers superstar Joel Embiid two years in a row thanks to the historic greatness of Nikola Jokic. ESPN's final straw poll for MVP revealed Thursday that JoJo currently holds an extremely close edge over Joker: 790-788, to be exact. That's a margin that can obviously change drastically in the final two weeks of the season, especially if either Embiid or Jokic sits out even one more game (Embiid was sidelined for Philly's loss to Denver on Monday, while Jokic sat for Denver's ugly L to the Pelicans on Thursday).
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MVP will assuredly come down to the wire, but the player who prevails will likely play and win the majority of his remaining games. Embiid and Philly just dropped four of their past six games — to Chicago, Golden State, Phoenix, and Denver. They can't drop four more in their remaining six over the next two weeks — that would effectively cement Jokic's third-consecutive MVP over Embiid, rehash the old narrative that Embiid and James Harden can't win in today's NBA, and also grant Cleveland (48-29) a backdoor ticket to the three-seed.
Toronto has plenty of motivation coming into tonight's game, too. The Raptors (38-38) have won six of their past 10 games to move back to .500, and have their eyes on a better seed for the play-in tournament. Catching Brooklyn (41-35) for the six-seed is not impossible, but it's highly unlikely — especially with Miami (40-37) and Atlanta (38-38) also in the way. Nick Nurse's squad would settle for the seventh or eighth seed so the Raps only need to win one play-in game as opposed to two — but this scrappy team will play whatever cards it's dealt.
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The Raptors remain top-heavy — not nearly as deep as Philadelphia — but their top six can compete with just about any team in the Association. Pascal Siakam remains the primary offensive focal point, but point guard Fred VanVleet and reigning Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes have been no slouches in the second half. OG Anunoby is as solid a three-and-D guy as you can find in the NBA, while Jakob Poeltl's return to Toronto at the trade deadline has already paid massive dividends. In the 15 games since reprising his role as the Raps' starting center, Poeltl has helped Toronto to a 12-7 record and a +55 points differential.
Will the Raptors come into the Wells Fargo Center and mount a massive road upset? Or will Philly hold court and improve to 28-11 at home? Let's dive into the odds, analyze some stats and betting trends, and make our best bets and predictions for this pivotal late-season clash of Eastern Conference foes.
76ers vs. Raptors odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: 76ers -5.5 (-105) | Raptors +5.5 (-115)
- Total: Over 224.5 (-110) | Under 224.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: 76ers -200 | Raptors +165
The 76ers have been a powerhouse at home all season, with their .711 winning percentage at Wells Fargo ranking as the fourth-best home record in the East and seventh-best in the NBA. But Philly has also been dominant against the spread, covering a league-best 44 games out of its 76 on the season (58.7% cover rate). Philadelphia's cover rate at home: 62.2 percent.
Toronto has been scrappy, going 16-13-1 against the spread as underdogs. But Nurse's squad has won just 10 of those 30 games — and even worse, the Raptors have won just seven of the 23 games in which they were road 'dogs. And Philly has taken the past two meetings between these teams — 104-101 in OT at Christmastime, and 112-90 right before Halloween. Trick or treat! Recent history could trick you into betting the Raps to pull off an upset, but the Sixers have treated Toronto to losses in three of their past four meetings.
But again, don't jump to conclusions. Oddsmakers have been suckering us into betting favorites at -5.5 lately, and it yields terrible value. Toronto has covered or pushed each of the four games this season in which it was a road underdog of 5-7 points. We would rather:
- buy a couple points and bet the scrappy road 'dogs (Raptors +7.5 is -145, +8.5 is -160),
- bet the Sixers' moneyline and take some heavy juice (-200, but a win's a win), or
- avoid the spread altogether and bet on the total.
In fact, the UNDER of 224.5 might be the play. Across the nine games in which Philly has been favored by 5-7 points at home this season, the UNDER has gone 6-3. The UNDER has also hit in two of the Raptors' past three games in which they were projected to lose by 5-7.
Toronto's scoring has dipped since the All-Star break, too. The Raps had been scoring 112.5 points per game going into All-Star weekend, but that average has dropped to 108.8 since. Philly and Toronto also rank third and fourth in the NBA in points allowed (110.5 and 111.6, respectively). The Sixers' average points allowed at home this season: 109.6, also third-best in the Association.
Smash the UNDER, but don't parlay it with anything. Put a more modest wager on either the Sixers winning outright or the Raptors covering an expanded spread.
Best Bets: UNDER 224.5, 76ers -200, Raptors +8.5 (-160)
76ers vs. Raptors best player prop bet: Pascal Siakam OVER 21.5 points (-110)
Spicy P has upped his points totals each time the Raptors have faced Philadelphia this season, starting with 20 points on Oct. 26, then 26 points on Oct. 28, then 38 points on Dec. 19. He's averaging over 23 points since Feb. 1, which also happens to be Toronto's best two-month stretch of the season. With Embiid likely battling with Poeltl, expect Siakam to put in work with the older, shorter P.J. Tucker guarding him.
Another prop we'll keep our eyes peeled for: Tyrese Maxey's over/under for points isn't listed, but we'd hit the over on any scoring prop up to 24.5 points. The stud guard has put up 44 and 31 against the Raps this season, both on staggering field-goal efficiency.
