The second-seeded Celtics are one win away from becoming the first team in NBA history to win a best-of-seven playoff series trailing 3-0, sitting as 7.5-point favorites and -300 on the moneyline to end the eighth-seeded Heat's season (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT). From an emotional perspective, Game 6 felt like a Game 7, as Boston escaped the Kaseya Center with a 104-103 victory thanks to Derrick White's game-winning tip-in as time expired.
Although Game 6 ended up coming down to the final second, Boston looked well on their way to a relatively stress-free victory, building a 98-88 lead with 4:56 to play. Despite shooting 20 percent from three (seven-of-35), Boston thrived in the paint, outscoring the Heat 42-32 on higher-percentage looks near the basket. Conversely, Miami couldn't buy a bucket from the paint, connecting on just 16-of-52 shots (30.8 percent).
However, as it's done all series and postseason, Miami dominated the latter stages of regulation, ultimately taking a one-point lead with three seconds left. While Jimmy Butler had a rough shooting night (five-of-21 FG), he did his part down the stretch. Trailing by two in the final seconds, Butler drew a foul on a three-point attempt, ultimately sinking the ensuing free-throws to give Miami a 103-102 lead.
Miami was one stop away from returning to the NBA Finals, but Max Strus couldn't recover in time after denying Jayson Tatum the in-bounds pass, allowing White a free run to clean up Marcus Smart's missed three-pointer. White's game-winner sent the ECF to Game 7 for a second-consecutive season, with the Celtics seemingly in the driver's seat to return to the Finals.
Will the Celtics be the first team in 150 tries to win a series coming back from a 0-3 hole, or can the Heat will themselves to another road victory? Below, we'll break down tonight's Celtics-Heat matchup, giving our prediction and best bets for the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
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Celtics vs. Heat Game 7 odds, picks, and predictions
- Spread: Celtics -7.5 (-110) | Heat +7.5 (-110)
- Total: OVER 203.5 (-110) | UNDER 203.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Celtics -300 | Heat +240
With the series shifting back to TD Garden, it's no surprise to see Boston listed as a multi-possession favorite to return to the NBA Finals. Despite the Celtics sporting a 5-5 home record in the playoffs, winning a pivotal Game 7 inside the raucous TD Garden will be a tall task for a Heat bunch that's failed to deliver the knock-out punch.
Even with a tough string of bad luck at home this postseason, Boston's gone a respectable 29-22 ATS this year inside TD Garden (56.9 percent). We're not sure Boston boat races Miami as they did in Game 5, but the C's sure have the momentum while this series is starting to actually look like a matchup between the second and eighth seeds.
MORE HEAT-CELTICS: Best props
Miami continued to shoot the three-ball at an elite clip in Game 6, sinking 14-of-30 attempts, but it couldn't connect on a high enough percentage of shots on the interior to close this series out. Say what you want about the last possession, but Miami was fortunate to erase a double-digit hole with under five to play, getting some late-game variance to fall its way. Boston's defense has turned a corner in the past three games, looking like the team who ended the regular season second in defensive rating.
With Boston still managing to pull out a road victory while shooting only 20 percent from behind the arc, chances are a Celtics team that's shot 37.6 percent from deep this season sees some better fortune tonight. Couple that with a less efficient three-point shooting night from the Heat, and the Celtics are in a prime position to etch themselves into the history books.
Prediction: Celtics 105, Heat 97. The Celtics (-7.5) cover the spread, with the game going UNDER the total (203.5)
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Best SuperDraft player prop bet for Heat vs. Celtics: Bam Adebayo OVER 0.5 points
With SuperDraft lowering Adebayo's points prop to 0.5, we'd be foolish not to take advantage of their free square promotion in our Fantasy Props entries tonight.
Adebayo had a rough shooting night in Game 5, finishing with 11 points on four-of-16 shooting, but he logged 46 minutes and still did his part on the glass (13 rebounds). We'll see if he can go OVER his actual points prop of 16.5, but he'll undoubtedly find a way to score one point to cash this free square for SuperDraft users.
Other Heat-Celtics SuperDraft props we like: Duncan Robinson OVER 9 points, Gabe Vincent UNDER 14 points, Marcus Smart OVER 14.5 points
