NBA awards predictions at halfway point: MVP, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year & more

Scott Rafferty

NBA awards predictions at halfway point: MVP, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year & more image

Ahead of the 2022-23 season, The Sporting News' NBA experts made their picks for each end-of-season award.

With half of the season now in the books, it's time to revisit those picks.

Who is the front-runner for MVP? Are Rookie of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year already a done deal? Should Russell Westbrook really be the favorite for Sixth Man of the Year?

14 members of TSN's Global team take stock of each award race at the midpoint of the season.

Vote now for your favorite NBA All-Star starters!

Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets), Luka Doncic (Dallas Mavericks)
Getty Images

Most Valuable Player pick

Winner: Nikola Jokic (5)

Also receiving votes: Luka Doncic (4), Kevin Durant (3), Jayson Tatum (2)

The case: Jokic's scoring is down slightly from his two MVP seasons, but his efficiency is up and he's knocking on the door of averaging a triple-double. The advanced stats continue to jump off the page for him, with the Nuggets being — this is not a joke — 23.8 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court. 

Jokic's play has the Nuggets neck and neck with the Grizzlies for the best record in the Western Conference.

We knew Jokic would have to be better than ever to even have a chance of joining Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird as the only players in NBA history to win three straight MVP awards. He's been just that.

MORE: Jayson Tatum vs. Luka Doncic: Who will be better in five years?

Rookie of the Year pick

Winner: Paolo Banchero (12)

Also receiving votes: Bennedict Mathurin (1), Jalen Williams (1)

The caseAs TSN's draft expert Kyle Irving recently noted, Banchero will join some elite company if he continues to play at the level he has. His 21.3 points per game lead all rookies, and he ranks second in assists (3.9), third in rebounds (6.8) and second in steals (1.0) among first-year players.

Fans clearly like what they have seen from Banchero because only seven frontcourt players in the Eastern Conference earned more All-Star votes than him in the first returns. He probably won't end up being an All-Star this year, but it looks like he's going to have plenty of chances to make it in the future.

Defensive Player of the Year pick

Winner: Jaren Jackson Jr. (11)

Also receiving votes: Brook Lopez (3)

The case: Jackson earned his first All-Defensive selection last season while being in the discussion for DPOY. So far this year, he's been even better.

Jackson is currently blocking a league-leading 3.3 shots per game. Opponents are shooting 14.1 percentage points worse than expected when he's defending the rim, which is elite. He's also one of the more versatile bigs in the league, and he isn't fouling nearly as much as he has in the past.

The Grizzlies are still defending at a high level with Jackson on the bench, but they're giving up only 102.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the court, which would be the best defensive rating in the NBA by a country mile.

It doesn't even matter that Jackson missed 14 games to start the season. He's been that good.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
(Getty Images)

Most Improved Player pick

Winner: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6)

Also receiving votes: Lauri Markkanen (5), Tyrese Haliburton (1), Bol Bol (1), Yuta Watanabe (1)

The case: Gilgeous-Alexander's Most Improved Player case isn't all that different from Ja Morant's last season.

He proved to be a star on the rise over the last couple of seasons, but Gilgeous-Alexander has made the leap into stardom this season. He's building a legitimate case to start in the All-Star Game with averages of 30.9 points, 5.6 assists, 4.8 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game. He's among the league leaders in clutch scoring and has the rebuilding Thunder competing on a nightly basis.

Even Gilgeous-Alexander's biggest supporters probably didn't see him reaching this level this soon.

Sixth Man of the Year pick

Winner: Bennedict Mathurin (5)

Also receiving votes: Malcolm Brogdon (4), Russell Westbrook (2), Bobby Portis (2), Christian Wood (1)

The case: In 2005, Ben Gordon finished second in Rookie of the Year voting and first in Sixth Man of the Year voting. Nearly 20 years later, will history repeat itself?

Rookie of the Year is clearly Banchero's to lose, but Mathurin has a real shot at joining Gordon as the only rookies to ever win Sixth Man of the Year. Not only does he lead all reserves in scoring, but he's playing a key role on a Pacers team that has far surpassed expectations.

MORE: Mathurin and Haliburton primed to be NBA's next star backcourt

Coach of the Year pick

Winner: Jacque Vaughn (5)

Also receiving votes: Joe Mazzulla (4), Willie Green (4), Mike Brown (1)

The case: The Nets were 2-5 before Vaughn replaced Steve Nash as head coach. Since then, they're 25-8. He's connected to the players in a way Nash couldn't, and the Nets are now playing at a top-10 level on both ends of the court.

Brooklyn's turnaround under Vaughn has been nothing short of incredible. They've gone from looking dead in the water to a real contender again.

Scott Rafferty

Scott Rafferty Photo

 

Scott Rafferty is an experienced NBA journalist who first started writing for The Sporting News in 2017. There are few things he appreciates more than a Nikola Jokic no-look pass, Klay Thompson heat check or Giannis Antetokounmpo eurostep. He's a member of the NBA Global team.