The Atlantic Division is full of big fish, and all of them acted accordingly this offseason, spending lavishly with the intention of improving in the short term.
The Knicks retooled their roster on this idea through a series of big acquisitions, the Celtics gave Al Horford his maximum, Brooklyn attempted to bring "Linsanity" back to New York City and the Raptors gave DeMar DeRozan a lucrative contract to stay in "The Six." Even the notoriously frugal 76ers devoted more than $25 million in 2016-17 salary to veterans, including their likely starting backcourt of Jerryd Bayless and Gerald Henderson.
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What makes this division different is that even though each team spent aggressively, a few of them still have the flexibility to be factors in 2017 as well.
The Celtics, Nets and Sixers could all have enough space for a max contract while the Knicks will have $20 million to presumably spend on a point guard. Only the Raptors will likely be out of the 2017 sweepstakes, and that would represent a best-case scenario of sorts because it would mean that All-Star Kyle Lowry decided to return, potentially on an eye-popping contract.
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Incidentally, these teams have also changed each other’s fortunes as the Nets’ ongoing draft obligations to the Celtics make Boston one of the most compelling teams in the league while the Raptors just added center Jakob Poeltl with the Knicks’ lottery pick. Those complicated dynamics will continue to shape the Atlantic for seasons to come and play a major role in a fascinating 2017 offseason for all five teams.
Boston Celtics
Likely 2017 cap space: $19.6 million
Realistic maximum 2017 cap space: $23.1 million
Key potential free agents: Kelly Olynyk (restricted), Amir Johnson (unrestricted), Jonas Jerebko (unrestricted), Tyler Zeller (non-guaranteed)
The Celtics occupy a unique place in the 2017 offseason because they have enough committed salary to be smaller players in free agency but also have an overwhelming number of players on team-friendly contracts that could be moved if they can secure a talented free agent or significant trade early on.
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Their combination of current success and future assets likely gets them meetings with the heavy hitters in free agency, and 2017-18 will be the final season with integral guards Isaiah Thomas and Avery Bradley on their bargain contracts. Big man Kelly Olynyk will likely be a restricted free agent and faces pressure to establish a role with the Celtics to illustrate his value to other potential suitors.
Brooklyn Nets
Likely 2017 cap space: $34.8 million
Realistic maximum 2017 cap space: $35.3 million
Key potential free agents: Bojan Bogdanovic (restricted), Greivis Vasquez (unrestricted), Luis Scola (unrestricted), Randy Foye (unrestricted)
Small expenditures can add up for a Brooklyn team that currently only looks to have space for one max player next summer. Moving on from Brook Lopez could dramatically increase that flexibility but would also take away a foundational piece of the franchise. The Nets will also need to make a decision on Bojan Bogdanovic, who will be a restricted free agent with a reasonable $6.8 million cap hold.
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While Brooklyn may be interested in using that to their advantage, another team could make the Croatian scorer a lucrative offer in a somewhat shallow swingman market, echoing the Nets’ offer sheet to Portland’s Allen Crabbe which the Trail Blazers ended up matching. Walking out of the 2016-17 season with one or more successful fliers on minimum contracts would be a significant development as it would allow the front office to concentrate their cap space on fewer players.
New York Knicks
Likely 2017 cap space: $22.8 million
Realistic maximum 2017 cap space: $23.2 million
Key potential free agents: Derrick Rose (unrestricted), Brandon Jennings (unrestricted), Justin Holiday (unrestricted)
Derrick Rose is the central figure for the Knicks’ offseason. With their other spending in 2016, the only way for the Knicks to have worthwhile cap space in 2017 would be if Rose left as a free agent. Otherwise, he presumably requires a significant amount of their flexibility, even if he takes less than expected.
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One way to think about the Knicks’ offseason is that they have approximately $23 million for free agents, including Rose, Jennings, new talent and whichever players on non-guaranteed deals they would like to retain. Point guard will be New York’s primary need, which could lead to a lucrative single-season deal with Rose to maintain future flexibility.
Philadelphia 76ers
Likely 2017 cap space: $36.6 million
Realistic maximum 2017 cap space: $50.7 million
Key potential free agents: Nerlens Noel (restricted), Sergio Rodriguez (unrestricted), Gerald Henderson (non-guaranteed)
If Philadelphia’s young talent impresses this season, they could become players in 2017 free agency considering the significantly smaller number of teams with space to offer max contracts. They will also have to contend with Nerlens Noel’s restricted free agency and which of their players on non-guaranteed contracts are worth retaining.
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At present, Gerald Henderson’s non-guaranteed $9 million for 2017-18 looks like a value, but the Sixers could also trade him to add even more cap space if desired, potentially getting close to two max slots. At the bare minimum, they could end up driving up the price on a talented restricted free agent pool including guards Victor Oladipo, Dennis Schröder and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
Toronto Raptors
Likely 2017 cap space: none.
Realistic maximum 2017 cap space: $11.5 million.
Key potential free agents: Kyle Lowry ($12 million player option), Patrick Patterson (unrestricted), Jared Sullinger (unrestricted)
Re-signing DeMar DeRozan this summer combined with prior long-term contracts for Jonas Valanciunas, DeMarre Carroll and Terrence Ross has taken the Raptors out of the mix for 2017 free agency. That gives Kyle Lowry even more leverage since Toronto could not adequately replace him with their remaining cap space.
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The Raptors will also have to figure out how they want to address the power forward position since both Patrick Patterson and Jared Sullinger will be free agents. Likely armed only with a Mid-Level Exception and two late first-round draft picks, last season’s No. 2 seed will need to maximize opportunities to stay competitive with the top tier of the Eastern Conference.