Think about the players who won’t likely be qualified for this year’s All-Star team in the Western Conference because of injuries: Kawhi Leonard, Chris Paul (who would have to recover quickly and dramatically from a slow post-injury start), Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap, Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley. That’s a top-tier list, and it should open the way for some new blood in the All-Star game.
Or maybe not. The West is so stocked with upper-level talent that, even without those big names, making the 12-man roster will be difficult. The league has changed the way the game will be played, but the pool of players will still come much the same way — a vote for starters followed by a pool of seven reserves (two guards, three forwards/centers, two wildcards) chosen by the coaches.
We can write in the starting five with some certainty. We can even go ahead and ink in a couple of reserves, Russell Westbrook and DeMarcus Cousins. That would leave five spots to fill — one guard, two forwards and the wildcards — from the rest of the conference. Here’s how the ballot would look with the five starters and two sure reserves, followed by the candidates for the final five spots.
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Western Conference Starters
G: James Harden, Rockets: This could be his MVP year, at last.
G: Stephen Curry, Warriors: Not shooting with consistency (36.8 percent on 3s), but averaging 26.1 points.
F: Anthony Davis, Pelicans: Putting up 25.6 points and 11.0 rebounds.
F: Kevin Durant, Warriors: Averages of 24.9 points, 6.8 rebounds and 4.7 assists have him in MVP running.
F: Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves: Sacrificed scoring this year, but still averaging 20.4 points and 11.7 rebounds.
Western Conference Reserves
Guard: Russell Westbrook, Thunder: Shooting has been bad (40.6 percent), but still near a triple-double.
Guard: ??
Forward: DeMarcus Cousins, Pelicans: Could finally be playoff bound, with averages of 25.4 points and 12.5 rebounds.
Forward: ??
Forward: ??
Wildcard: ??
Wildcard: ??
Klay Thompson, Warriors
Roster category: Guard
The case for: Thompson has had a hot start as a shooter, making 46.1 percent of his 3-pointers, and he is taking in 4.3 rebounds per game, both of which are career-highs. He is averaging 20.2 points for the Warriors, who have the second-best record in the West.
The case against: Thompson does not have a lot of impact on the game outside of his shooting, and this year he has not been going to the rim much at all. Just 13.4 percent of his attempts come within three feet, a career-low, and he’s taking only 1.0 free throws per game.
Chances: In. Thompson has been an All-Star the past three seasons, and his shooting will secure a fourth straight spot.
Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers
Roster category: Guard
The case for: Lillard ranks seventh in the league in scoring, averaging 25.4 points for a team that has gotten off to a surprisingly good start. He has added 6.1 assists and 5.0 rebounds.
The case against: Lillard was left off the last two All-Star teams because the field was too crowded and he’s not a model of efficiency. He’s been slightly worse this year, making 42.0 percent from the field and 32.9 percent from the 3-point line.
Chances: Probably in. Lillard will have to overcome the same obstacles that kept him off the All-Star team before, namely his shooting. His spot likely comes down to a choice between him or Jimmy Butler. We’ll give him the edge because he’s his team’s best player.
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Jimmy Butler, Timberwolves
Roster category: Guard
The case for: Butler’s numbers have been solid across the board, averaging 17.4 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.6 assists. The Timberwolves are above .500, and they have benefited from Butler’s veteran presence. Butler has been an All-Star his last three seasons.
The case against: Butler’s production has dropped off this season with his new team — he averaged 23.9 points last year — and though the Wolves have improved, they have had early struggles. He will have ample competition for an All-Star place.
Chances: Probably out. With the crowd at the guard spot in the West, it’s likely that either Butler or Lillard will be an All-Star, but not both.
C.J. McCollum, Trail Blazers
Roster category: Guard
The case for: Certainly, from an efficiency standpoint, McCollum might deserve an All-Star spot more than teammate Lillard. He is averaging 21.2 points and his 3-point shooting has been off the charts, at 47.2 percent. In a Portland offense that does not see a lot of ball movement, McCollum’s shot-making is critical.
The case against: McCollum is an excellent shooter but does not contribute all that much elsewhere. He handles the ball a lot but averages only 2.6 assists, and he does not attack the rim very much, taking only 3.1 free throws per game.
Chances: Out. The West is just too guard-heavy to have both Lillard and McCollum on the roster.
Devin Booker, Suns
Roster category: Guard
The case for: Booker ranks ninth in scoring in the West, averaging 23.0 points. He is making a career-high 37.6 percent of his 3-pointers and also averaging career-highs in rebounds (4.4) and assists (4.0).
The case against: The Suns are 8-15, and Booker is putting up good numbers for a losing cause.
Chances: Out. There are too many big names Booker would have to leapfrog. But the Suns are playing better lately, and if they can somehow get themselves around .500, Booker will have a stronger case six weeks from now. That’s a stretch, though.
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Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
Roster category: Forward
The case for: Jokic is one of the best all-around offensive big men in the league, averaging 15.5 points, 10.6 rebounds and 4.6 assists. He has upped his performance as a perimeter shooter, too, making 40.6 percent of his 3-pointers on a career-high 3.3 attempts per game.
The case against: The Nuggets have been a bit disappointing early in the year, and Jokic has not had the huge third-year breakthrough that was expected. He also suffered a nasty ankle injury Thursday night, but it shouldn't keep him out long.
Further evaluation on left ankle of Denver's Nikola Jokic set for Friday, but there's cautious optimism that injury is no more than a sprain, league source tells ESPN. X-rays negative.
— Adrian Wojnarowski (@wojespn) December 1, 2017
Chances: In. Jokic is now the focal point of the Nuggets’ offense, even more now that Paul Millsap is injured. He has handled the role well and his numbers show it.
LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs
Roster category: Forward
The case for: The Spurs have been missing their best player, Kawhi Leonard, here in the season’s first month-plus, but that only seems to have awoken Aldridge, who is having what is easily the best of his three seasons in San Antonio, putting up 23.1 points with 8.2 rebounds and 52.1 percent shooting.
The case against: He’s still not a great rebounder, but there are not many other knocks against how he has played this season.
Chances: In. Aldridge was on the outs with the Spurs going back to draft night, but he signed an extension and now is looking like his old self.
Paul George, Thunder
Roster category: Forward
The case for: George’s scoring is down slightly, mostly because he handles the ball less and does not attempt as many free throws, but the rest of his numbers have held up from his Indiana days: 20.5 points, 5.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists. He’s shooting 40.0 percent from the 3-point line.
The case against: George has never been much of a midrange shooter and, despite a bump up last year, he is back to poor overall shooting, making 42.2 percent from the field. As good as he has been individually, the Thunder are just 8-12.
Chances: Out, for now. If the Thunder can rally and pull themselves back into the heart of West playoff teams, George will deserve a place. But OKC should not have two All-Stars with a .400 winning percentage.
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Draymond Green, Warriors
Roster category: Forward
The case for: Obviously, you have to look past the meager scoring (10.2 points) to appreciate what Green does for the Warriors. He has given up shots to help the team, and his rebounding (7.4 per game) and passing (6.9 assists per game) make up for his scant points.
The case against: Green is having a poor year shooting the ball, making only 32.9 percent of his 3s, a bad showing for a guy who takes 65.5 percent of his shots without a defender within four feet, according to NBA stats.
Chances: In, for now. If one of Green’s competitors (Paul George, Jimmy Butler, Marc Gasol) for a spot goes on a nice run, individually or as a team, it’s not hard to imagine Green getting bumped. But, barring such a streak, the spot is still Green’s.
Marc Gasol, Grizzlies
Roster category: Forward
The case for: Even at 32, Gasol is still doing his thing, scoring 18.6 points per game, with 8.9 rebounds and 4.3 assists. Those are on par, or better, than his numbers in the other three years in which he’s made the All-Star team.
The case against: Gasol is trying more 3-pointers (4.5 per game) and making them at a pretty low rate (32.2 percent), and his shooting woes at the arc have affected him all over the floor — according to Basketball-reference.com, he has among the worst percentages of his career from 3-10 feet (39.2 percent), from 10-16 feet (39.0) and from 16 feet to the 3-point line (34.6).
Chances: Out. Gasol’s shooting troubles are a problem, as is the Grizzlies’ plummeting record.
Clint Capela, Rockets
Roster category: Forward
The case for: The Rockets are the best team in the West, but are only likely to have one All-Star, James Harden. Cases for Eric Gordon and Chris Paul are weak, and Capela (13.7 points, 11.3 rebounds, league-high 67.0 effective field-goal percentage) is the guy on the roster most worthy of consideration.
The case against: Capela is an extremely limited offensive player who thrives off what Harden and Paul create for him. In all, 35.5 percent of his shots are dunk attempts, and 81 percent of his attempts come within three feet of the basket.
Chances: Not likely. Again, the Rockets are worthy of more than one selection. Maybe Paul will turn around his numbers, or maybe Gordon will shoot better and reignite his candidacy. But Capela has been their strongest No. 2 All-Star candidate so far, so he at least warrants consideration.
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Conclusion...
The wildcards are where the action is. Can Lillard beat out Butler? How does Green, with his defensive reputation and all-around production, stack up? Does the Thunder’s bad start keep George out? Does the Rockets’ fast start mean we could see a truly wild wildcard, like Capela? Much can change, but the West roster stacks up this way, so far.
Western Conference Starters
G: James Harden, Rockets
G: Stephen Curry, Warriors
F: Anthony Davis, Pelicans
F: Kevin Durant, Warriors
F: Karl-Anthony Towns, Timberwolves
Western Conference Reserves
Guard: Russell Westbrook, Thunder
Guard: Klay Thompson, Warriors
Forward: DeMarcus Cousins, Pelicans
Forward: Nikola Jokic, Nuggets
Forward: LaMarcus Aldridge, Spurs
Wildcard: Damian Lillard, Trail Blazers
Wildcard: Draymond Green, Warriors