Michael Kidd-Gilchrist helps the Charlotte Hornets win games. He used to help the Charlotte Bobcats win games. Before that, he helped the Kentucky Wildcats and St. Patrick (N.J.) Fighting Celtics win games.
The past two seasons' results have been staggering: Charlotte is 61-53 when Kidd-Gilchrist starts, 15-35 when he does not. And while those numbers underscore his greatest issue, injuries, they also illuminate a player who has been worth far more than half of the NBA's maximum salary. Yet that, according to reports, is what Kidd-Gilchrist is prepared to sign to stay with the Hornets: four years and $52 million, kicking in for the 2016-17 season.
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Kidd-Gilchrist — even at 21 years old, younger than several incoming rookies — is a divisive player. His value shows up less on the box score (10.9 points and 7.6 rebounds per game) than even most supposed no-stats stars. He's an ace defender who gets neither steals nor blocks; a perimeter player whose jump shot is so lacking that he did not even attempt a 3-pointer last season. Think about that: 1,587 minutes for the worst-shooting team in the NBA, and Kidd-Gilchrist refused to take a shot beyond the arc.
That reflects either a total lack of confidence or a measured discipline. Either way, all involved know it must change. Hornets coach Steve Clifford and general manager Rich Cho made clear that they hope Kidd-Gilchrist is able to hit corner 3s, if nothing else, next season. He has worked on his perimeter game throughout the offseason, with Clifford raving about his progress across the board. We're in the NBA's pace-and-space era, where shooting is a requirement.
But Kidd-Gilchrist fits the era, in his own way. And the Hornets have structured their entire roster around Kidd-Gilchrist's skills. They have done it subtly, through finding big men who can shoot, such as free agent Spencer Hawes and rookie Frank Kaminsky, and guards who can create, like new sixth man Jeremy Lin and returnee Kemba Walker, who is the team's other long-term building block.
“In this league, they only guard you to where you can shoot, which means your shooting is your spacing," Clifford said last month when asked about building around Kidd-Gilchrist. "But then you’re seeing more and more in this league is what Coach (Pete) Carill did for a long time at Princeton. He used skilled big men so that both elbows are open to drive the lane and cut. That’s where guys like Frank, his presence alone creates space for teammates to drive into and cut into.”
That's where Kidd-Gilchrist looks his best. Clifford was quick to shoot down suggestions of a Kawhi Leonard-like offensive emergence because he does not expect Kidd-Gilchrist to ever be the centerpiece of a good offense. He will take advantage of holes and cut to the basket and scrape out 12 to 15 points a game, probably never reaching an average of 20. He will shoot high percentages because he is smart enough to know his own limitations.
But he can be the centerpiece of a great defense. Clifford was handed Al Jefferson as his star center and Cody Zeller as his top-five draft pick when he came to Charlotte, which meant he needed to come up with a way to defend without defense-first big men prowling the paint. He did so by enforcing discipline. The Hornets were last in the NBA in steals over the past two seasons combined, yet they had a top-10 defense. That comes from preventing penetration and staying in front of shooters — which Kidd-Gilchrist excels at.
Here, the on-off numbers come back into play. The Hornets were 12.2 points per 100 possessions better with Kidd-Gilchrist on the court last season, by far the most extreme number on the team and better, even, than James Harden's on-off splits for the Rockets. Much of those numbers come because the Hornets had no ideal substitute, but they help confirm his immense value. Charlotte's defense with Kidd-Gilchrist rated as better than any other team's, and without him, it fell to 24th.
But Kidd-Gilchrist's contract extension, agreed upon well in advance of the fall deadline, is more reminiscent of the player who beat Harden for NBA MVP this season: Stephen Curry. The Warriors point guard signed his ridiculously cheap extension (four years, $44 million) after his third season, like Kidd-Gilchrist. And that value was so low mostly because of injuries, like with Kidd-Gilchrist.
While the Hornets were 61-53 with and 15-35 without Kidd-Gilchrist the past two seasons, the Warriors were 46-54 with and 13-35 without Curry in the two seasons prior to his extension agreement. With Curry, the worries were ankles and a thin physique. With Kidd-Gilchrist, it's ankles and a foot stress reaction.
There won't be an MVP Award in Kidd-Gilchrist's future. There may not even be All-Star berths. But the contract he signed is going to look like a pittance by the time it kicks in, taking effect in 2016-17 as the salary cap rises to $90 million. His contract's first-year value will be the equivalent of less than $9 million this year, or only slightly more than the Trail Blazers are paying Al-Farouq Aminu. He also won't clog up the books for next offseason because his contract will be in the same range as his cap hold, unlike with Leonard and the Spurs this year.
So for the price of a decent role player, Charlotte locked up a young potential cornerstone. Keep him healthy. Tweak his jumper. Win games.
