It is not 2010 all over again but the Heat have another opportunity to woo elite free agents while also worrying about retaining Dwyane Wade.
The franchise’s greatest player put the pressure on the team again Tuesday night, as reports surfaced that he was considering options beyond Miami. All of that leads to the most complicated offseason in the NBA.
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Before we get into how this Heat summer will go down, let’s review their free agents and salary cap situation quickly.
Potential free agents: Dwyane Wade (unrestricted), Hassan Whiteside (unrestricted), Luol Deng (unrestricted), Tyler Johnson (restricted), Gerald Green (unrestricted), Joe Johnson (unrestricted), Amare Stoudemire (unrestricted), Udonis Haslem (unrestricted), Josh Richardson (non-guaranteed), Dorell Wright (unrestricted) and Briante Weber (partial guarantee).
Likely cap space: $40.3 million.
Realistic maximum cap space (using $94 million estimate): $40.5 million.
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Luol Deng, Al Jefferson and Hassan Whiteside. (Getty Images)
Wade is only a starting point here. After taking a flier on enigmatic big man Hassan Whiteside that worked out beautifully, the Heat have to deal with his success at the same time many other key contributors hit free agency.
Since Whiteside only has two seasons with the Heat, he will be an Early Bird free agent. Without that third year of team experience, the largest contract Miami can sign him to without using cap space is around the mid-level exception — far less than Whiteside will get on the open market. That means if the Heat want to retain their center, they must use cap space like the Hawks had to do with Paul Millsap last summer.
That becomes more complicated because of Wade. His combination of high salary and long tenure with the team means his cap hold is an astonishing $30 million, right around his maximum salary for 2016-17. That massive sum gobbles up nearly all of Miami’s cap space and can only change if he agrees to a new contract or the team renounces its star (which would not preclude his return, as they would just need to sign him with cap space).
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As such, the $40 million figure above for free agents includes Wade, Whiteside, Luol Deng and any other free agents Pat Riley wants to bring in, whether they are on the current roster or not, including any max-caliber players on other teams. True, Miami could trade Goran Dragic to clear additional space, but doing so would create a massive void at point guard, and it will be difficult to find a worthy starter there, much less one at a reasonable salary. Chris Bosh’s health issues likely preclude a trade, and the Heat have no other players committed to more than $6 million for next season.
While the nuances of the NBA’s labor rules hurt the Heat with Hassan Whiteside, they help with Tyler Johnson. As a player with only two years of NBA experience, Johnson is subject to the Gilbert Arenas provision, so rival teams cannot sign him to a first-year salary higher than $5.628 million. That restriction and his low cap hold arguably make Johnson the Heat free agent most likely to be a part of their 2016-17 team.
Unrestricted veteran free agents Deng, Green, Stoudemire and Joe Johnson could be back as well but are all subject to Miami’s cap crunch. They may receive more lucrative offers from other teams without the stress of sitting around while the Heat sort out their bigger fish. It will also be fascinating to watch how the Heat handle Beno Udrih, who took a buyout despite being out for the season to help Miami get under the luxury tax.
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The most fascinating possible wrinkle for the Heat is one that would be perfectly in line with their history of cap wizardry. Getting Wade to agree to a smaller 2016-17 salary would allow the team to add more talent this summer and have a low cap hold next year when they could use his Bird rights to eventually go over the cap on a lucrative deal. Wade and the Heat could not come close to a firm agreement on a number for 2017-18 since that would violate the Collective Bargaining Agreement but an understanding that is less certain would be OK. As cap guru Albert Nahmad laid out a little over a month ago, the Heat also have another crazy CBA loophole they can use to lower Hassan Whiteside’s starting salary through unlikely bonuses, if he were willing to take a small risk.
A small perk for Miami is that clearing the space necessary to make their summer moves takes them out of the luxury tax for the 2016-17 season. That combined with ducking the tax at the last minute this season (twice!) means they will not be subject to the dreaded “repeater tax” for a long, long time if it even exists in the next collective bargaining agreement.
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While Miami’s cap sheets are not as clean as they were in 2010, they have a similarly massive opportunity to shape the future of their franchise depending on whom they can convince to sign.