Mavs vs. Thunder prediction: Dallas dominates point spread, moneyline & player props for Game 6 on Saturday

Included in this betting preview:

• Best bet against the spread
• Best moneyline pick
• Top over/under bet
• Highest-value player prop
• Full odds board for the day
• Updated NBA Playoffs bracket

The MVP-finalist showdown of Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the Mavericks-Thunder semifinals series has not disappointed. However, it could be coming to an end as Luka and the Mavs can send Oklahoma City packing with a Game 6 win in Dallas on Saturday (8:00 p.m. ET, ABC).

The Mavericks have played stifling defense and enjoyed stellar play from midseason acquisitions P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford. Dallas lost Game 1 117-95 but has since gone 3-1 with a scoring margin of +21. The Mavs are -3.5 favorites to win and eliminate the No. 1-seed Thunder.

OKC's scoring has decreased in every game of this series. The Thunder have also been getting dominated by Dallas on the boards. Check out OKC's final team score, rebounding total, and rebounding margin in each of the five games so far:

As you can see, the Mavericks have commanded the vast majority of the past three games, with the sole exception coming in Game 4 when Dallas fell apart in the second half and ultimately lost by four points. Can OKC possibly kickstart its engine at the America Airlines Center tonight?

Let's get to the top BetMGM value bets for Game 6 of the Mavericks vs. Thunder series, including the best moneyline, spread, over/under and player prop wagers.

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Mavericks -3.5 vs. Thunder (-115)

Let's face it: Dallas has completely outworked the Thunder over the past four games. OKC has won just four of the past 16 quarters in this series, one of which was by one point. The Mavs have a +25 rebounding margin in that span, and they have taken 21 more free throws than the Thunder. 

Dallas has made life extremely difficult for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and company. Jason Kidd's squad has contested seemingly every shot near the rim, and good rotations and close-out defense has also limited OKC's impact from beyond the three-point arc.

With strong momentum in a home Game 6 closeout opportunity, expect Luka Doncic and the Mavs to get it done against the young, reeling Thunder. Buy the line down to -1.5 at -150 if you want some extra insurance, but the -3.5 seems trustworthy. Dallas has won by 19, four, and 12 in its three wins this series. 

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Mavericks 107, Thunder 101 — Dallas wins (-175) and covers the -3.5 spread (-115), while the final score finishes just UNDER the projected total of 209.5 (-110).

Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top moneyline bet

Mavericks 1Q (-140) vs. Thunder

With a chance to put away the Thunder and have a rest advantage over whoever they would face in the Western Conference Finals, don't expect the Mavericks to come out flat in the early goings of Game 6. Dallas hasn't lost a first quarter all series, and the Mavs are +19 in the frame over the past four games. 

America Airlines Arena will be rocking, just like it has been all postseason. Look for the Mavs to start this one aggressively on both ends, attacking the basket and setting the pace on offense and stifling OKC on defense to win the fifth-straight first quarter. 

FIRST QUARTER PREDICTION: Mavericks 27, Thunder 25 — Dallas wins the first frame (-140) and the first-quarter score goes just OVER the projected total of 51.5 (-115).

Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top over/under bet

Thunder team total UNDER 104.5 at Mavericks (-140)

As mentioned in the open, the Thunder's team total has decreased in every game of this series. OKC's 92-point total in Game 5 ranked as its lowest-scoring game of the entire season, and that was at home! Now the youngest team in the NBA faces elimination in Dallas and sportsbooks list this much value on an alternate UNDER of 104.5!? Smash it. 

Over the past three games, OKC has averaged 97.7 points per game. The Thunder have also failed to exceed 101 in each of its two games in Dallas during this series. The Mavs are playing some extremely special team defense right now, and Mark Daigneault's squad doesn't stand a chance to score 105 points on the road against them right now. 

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Mavericks 107, Thunder 101 — Dallas wins (-175) and covers the -3.5 spread (-115), while the final score finishes just UNDER the projected total of 209.5 (-110).

Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top player prop bets

Derrick Jones Jr. mini-parlay: OVER 9.5 points + 0.5 blocks (+175)

Now, let's really have some fun! Jones Jr. has been such a big part of this Mavs playoff run, and he seems to have the full trust of Jason Kidd, Luka Doncic, and Kyrie Irving. His hops have proven insanely valuable on alley-oops and on defense, with highlight-reel dunks and rejections seemingly every game.

That increased trust has not surprisingly led to increased usage. DJJ has taken 21 shots over the Mavs' past two games, both of which he scored 17-plus points in and both of which Dallas won. He also has five blocks over that two-game stretch, so +175 on Jones reaching double-digit points and one rejection seems like tremendous value. 

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All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.

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