Included in this betting preview:
- Best bet against the spread
- Top over/under bet
- Highest-value player props
- Odds board for the day
- Updated NBA Playoffs bracket
The Mavericks went into Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals with the chance to sweep the Timberwolves and -5000 odds to advance to the NBA Finals. After Minnesota mounted a triumphant upset to stay alive and force Dallas into a Game 5 at Target Center (8 p.m. ET, TNT, Sling), the Mavs suddenly find themselves 4.5-point underdogs and just -550 to win the series.
For context, the -5000 series odds BetMGM assigned to Jason Kidd's team ahead of Game 4 implied a 98-percent winning probability. With the confidence of Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns revived and Minnesota's No. 1 defense back to lockdown status, as former Wolves great Kevin Garnett once emphatically screamed "Anything's possible!"
Of course, KG yelled that after winning a championship with Boston. Minnesota has still never even made the NBA Finals, never mind raised a championship banner. And even with momentum from a strong Game 4, eliminating the likes of Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and company by becoming the first team to fully recover from a 3-0 series deficit will be...difficult.
Still, it sure seems like this has become at least a respectable series. And this should be a very competitive game with the Wolves going 30-11 at home this season. All the more reason to lock in some Game 5 wagers on BetMGM.
MORE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP CONTENT:
Luka's Game 2 stunner on Gobert | Kyrie's history of clutch playoff performances
Let's get to the top value bets for Game 5 of the Mavs vs. Wolves series, including the best spread, over/under, and player prop wagers.
Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top ATS pick
Timberwolves -1.5 (1Q) vs. Mavericks (-105)
Dallas messed around and let one of the feistiest teams in the NBA get one. Now Minnesota has momentum fueled by what's likely to be a very fiery Target Center crowd, and the Wolves should pick up right where they left off in Game 4.
During this series, the Wolves have collectively outscored the Mavs in first quarters 120-106. That's a +14 first-quarter scoring margin and an average over/under of +3.5, for anyone without their calculator app handy.
Especially with Minnesota enjoying home-court advantage and the Mavs still listing big man Dereck Lively II (neck) as questionable, the Timberwolves seem like a great bet to cover this modest first-frame spread.
FIRST QUARTER PREDICTION: Timberwolves 28, Mavs 25 — Minnesota wins the first quarter (-150) and covers the -1.5 spread (-105), and the frame finishes just UNDER the projected total of 53.5 (+100).
Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top over/under bet
Mavs at Wolves alternate total: UNDER 212.5 (-135)
The whole world seemed to be betting the OVER on the Game 4 total of 210.5, so naturally the whole world got a 105-100 defensive battle. Now we expect things to tighten up even more, with Minnesota's defense riding high off the road upset and the Wolves' faithful likely turning up for its home squad.
The Wolves have allowed just 101 points per game at Target Center this postseason, and the Mavs have been held to 97 or fewer in three road games since the start of the 2024 NBA Playoffs. Expect this one to max out in the 208-210 range, cashing the minority of bettors pushing their chips toward UNDER bets.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Timberwolves 106, Mavs 103 — Minnesota wins (-200) but Dallas covers the +4.5 spread (-105), and the game finishes UNDER the alternate projected total of 212.5 points (-135).
Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top player prop bets
Luka Doncic points: UNDER 30.5 (-110)
Has there been a more enticing wager than Luka's scoring OVER this postseason? At times it has felt like almost as much of a lock as Nikola Jokic's triple-double props in the 2023 NBA Playoffs. However, Chris Finch and Micah Nori putting Edwards on the MVP finalist in Game 4 proved to be a turning point.
Doncic shot just 7-of-21 from the floor and 4-of-11 from three-point land, finishing with 28 points in the loss. If not for his playoff-best 10 makes from the free-throw line, he would have finished even further below the 30-point threshold.
As we saw in the Mavs' semifinals series against the Thunder, a good defense can contain Luka's scoring on the road. Over two games in OKC that round, he averaged 24 points per game on a combined 17-of-40 from the floor. With Ant-man shadowing him in Game 5, expect Luka to be held below 30 for the 10th time in 17 games this postseason.
Other high-value player prop bets
- Kyrie Irving OVER 23.5 points (-110)
- Karl-Anthony Towns OVER 19.5 (-125)
- Mike Conley OVER 5.5 assists (-110)
- Daniel Gafford OVER 1.5 blocks (-175)
- Mike Conley UNDER 1.5 turnovers (-160)
NBA playoff bets and spreads tonight: Full odds board
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
| Game | Time | Moneyline | Spread | O/U |
| Mavs @ Wolves | 8:30 pm (TNT) | MIN -200; DAL +165 | MIN -4.5 (-115) | 209.5 |
NBA Playoffs updated bracket
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