The NBA has seen a whole new crop of young teams and stars take leaps this year, and no one has jumped higher than Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. As the Mavs get set for Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals against the Golden State Warriors, there's plenty of well-deserved hype around the growth of Luka, but there's so much more to this series than just that.
It's a battle between an overachieving organization and one that's trying to get back to the top of the mountain, and the storylines seem endless.
LATEST NBA BETTING TRENDS: Odds | Over/Unders | Expert picks
The Warriors never really went away -- they were just retooling so they could torture the NBA all over again. The favorites to win the NBA title look as strong as they did when they made five straight NBA Finals, and they're built like a team that's ready to start another dynasty.
Meanwhile, the Mavs went from a team that "needs more than just Luka" to a team that suddenly has a solid list of contributors besides Doncic. From Spencer Dinwiddie's 30 points in just 25 minutes to help close out Phoenix in Game 7 t Jalen Brunson's 21.8 points per game over the past five games of that series, they've become more versatile, and Doncic still dominates like he always has (32.6 points, 9.9 rebounds, 7.0 assists against the Suns).
The Warriors are back in the Western Conference Finals after missing the playoffs altogether the past two years, while Dallas finds itself as an underdog (+185 to win the series) in a round it wasn't expected to reach. After embarrassing the Suns in Game 7, though, it would be wise for Golden State to not overlook the Mavs -- something the Warriors seemed to have a bad habit of doing at moments against the Grizzlies.
Experience has helped the Warriors so far, with their core finally healthy for the first time in two seasons. In fact, Draymond Green, Steph Curry, and Klay Thompson played just 11 total minutes during this regular season, and the Warriors are expected to have coach Steve Kerr out of the NBA’s Health & Safety Protocols after missing Games 4-6 against Memphis. Plus, former Finals MVP Andre Iguodala is expected to return after missing seven games with a neck injury.
The whole band will officially be back together for Game 1 against the Mavs.
Mavericks vs. Warriors betting trends
Golden State has struggled to cover the spread during the playoffs. The Warriors were just 2-4 ATS against Memphis and have now covered in just two of their past eight playoff games. Meanwhile, Dallas covered Games 6-7 against Phoenix by a combined 68.5 points – yes, they beat the last two spreads by a total of 68.5 points – and are now 9-4 ATS during the playoffs.
While both teams have high-scoring superstars, don’t be surprised by a few UNDERs in this series. Golden State was 18-27 O/U at home this season, while the Mavs were 12-34 O/U on their own home court. While the Warriors have been vacillating between OVERs and UNDERs this postseason, Dallas has remained consistent with seven UNDERs in the past 10 games.
Mavericks vs. Warriors best bets and expert picks
Golden State has the depth, firepower, and experience to get past the Mavericks. Dallas has played well enough to take a couple games, so there's a good chance this is going six games (+200), but the Warriors are expected to get back to the NBA Finals for a reason.
Don't forget this year there are Western and Eastern Conference Finals MVP awards, and it should be no surprise that Steph Curry is the heavy favorite to win at -110, with Doncic coming in behind him at +195 on FanDuel.
Curry averaged 26 points against Memphis last series, but he didn't shoot the ball particularly well. His 32.9 percent from deep was coupled with just 41.3 percent overall, but he and Thompson (+900 to win WCF MVP) did combine for 59 points in the closeout game against the Grizzlies. If you're thinking about diving into this new prop, you'd be better off looking at someone like Thompson or even Jordan Poole (+2200) if you want some value for the award. Of course, if you think Dallas can move on to the Finals, it's a pretty solid bet that Doncic takes home the award on that side.
BetQL subscribers get all of our best bets, including NBA player props, with star ratings for every game. Sign up for a BetQL Day Pass!