More than any other team in the league, the Mavericks’ situation requires perspective. They could clear the decks and have a ton of cap space or bring back the same team with very little extra or do something in between.
Dirk Nowitzki, though a free agent, is not going anywhere, and the greatest player in franchise history proved this season that he still has a lot to offer. However, the Mavericks have not won a playoff series since their 2011 NBA championship season, and an aging roster faltered late this season after an impressive start.
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Let’s take a look at their free agents, salary cap space and assets for this summer before breaking down what needs to be done.
Potential free agents: Chandler Parsons ($16 million player option), Dirk Nowitzki ($8.7 million player option), Zaza Pachulia (unrestricted), Deron Williams ($5.6 million player option), JaVale McGee (non-guaranteed), Dwight Powell (restricted), Raymond Felton (unrestricted), David Lee (unrestricted), Salah Mejri (non-guaranteed) and Charlie Villanueva (unrestricted).
Likely salary cap space: $38.8 million.
Realistic maximum cap space (using $92 million estimate): $59.2 million.
2016 NBA Draft assets: No. 46 overall (no first-rounder).
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Many of the largest choices the Mavericks must make this offseason are outside their control. They only have five players on guaranteed non-option contracts, which means two-thirds of their roster could be free agents. Parsons, Nowitzki and Williams should all decline comparatively cheap player options, though Nowitzki obviously is expected to return. He could end up agreeing to a smaller salary to facilitate adding more talent, as he did two summers ago.
Parsons is a challenging situation for Dallas because his cap hold will be close to both his maximum and expected salary. As such, Dallas gets very little benefit from that circumstance and bears the risk of him choosing to head elsewhere. Since he has only been on the team for two seasons, the Mavericks cannot offer Parsons a fifth season so the only difference between their offer and any other team’s could be slightly higher raises.
Williams’ situation affords even less flexibility because the drafters of the Collective Bargaining Agreement did not want to give teams a benefit after signing a player for a single season. Functionally, Williams would be need to be signed out of Dallas’ cap space just like another team’s free agent.
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The more traditional free agents are no picnic either. Zaza Pachulia was a key part of the Mavericks’ early-season success and has a cap hold of less than $10 million, which could be lower than his 2016-17 salary. If he returns, that could allow the Mavs a little extra flexibility. The front office also has to make early decisions on big men JaVale McGee and Salah Mejri because both have guarantee dates in early July.
Dwight Powell started the season strong as a roll man in Rick Carlisle’s offense, but his playing time dwindled. As a restricted free agent with only two years of NBA experience, he is subject to the Gilbert Arenas provision but it appears unlikely he would get an offer lucrative enough for it to matter.
Having such a blank slate creates both challenges and opportunities for the Mavericks. They can recruit anyone without having to worry about that new addition being blocked but also have exceedingly few rotation players under contract. An ideal offseason for Dallas might be to bring in a few big names at high prices, then fill out the rotation with minimum-salaried players in a free agency landscape where no one wants to take those deals. Complicating matters, Dallas has consistently aimed high on free agents, which would be an even bigger boom-bust strategy in 2016 because of the number of competitors and the shallow pool of elite free agents. Striking out could make Dallas a major player on the trade and restricted free agent markets but those will be packed and challenging as well.
One fascinating option for Dallas which should be on the table is to come to an understanding with Nowitzki that they will pay him within a range but his specific salary would depend on how much they are able to spend on other players. They could then renounce the German star, use some of the newly-created cap space and then sign him back on the agreed terms with the remainder. That path would not affect their Bird rights or ability to pay Nowitzki after this season.
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Last summer, DeAndre Jordan’s late defection put Dallas in a tough spot, but their reaction to that setback proved very successful. They got some help by having Pachulia fall in their lap and Williams leaving money on the table in Brooklyn, but those moves along with value plays on minimum salary players gave them enough talent to make the playoffs.
That positive experience should provide some hope if the Mavs miss out on the big fish this season but that path will be far more treacherous this offseason due to a vastly different cap climate.