Big issue 1: The Magic came out of the wilderness of six straight 20-35 win seasons to finish 42-40 and earn a playoff spot for the first time since the departure of Dwight Howard. That’s a nifty turn-the-corner moment for the franchise, at least until you consider how easy it is to get over-enthused about a one-off spike then slip back behind the corner and find yourself trapped back in an endless 32-win purgatory.
Magic coach Steve Clifford has some familiarity with this. When he was in Charlotte, Clifford coached the Hornets to two playoff appearances in three years, the last coming in a 48-win season, the franchise’s best performance in 16 years. The Hornets responded by committing to $175 million in contracts for Nic Batum and Marvin Williams, who both were very good in 2015-16. But they dropped off sharply after that, and the Hornets have been stuck with a pair of albatross deals that kept the franchise mired in seasons of 36, 36 and 39 wins since.
Is there a lesson there for Orlando as it heads into an offseason with free agents Nikola Vucevic coming off his first All-Star appearance and wing Terrence Ross coming off what was easily the best year of his career? Vucevic is 28, so there has to be some concern about his ability to build upon the 20.8 points and 12.0 rebounds he put up this year. At best, he repeats the performance. At worst, he reverts to his usual production.
Ross is not so young either — he’s also 28, and teams can be wary about guys who have their best seasons in their free-agency years.
Decisions on those guys, especially on Vucevic, who could warrant something close to a max contract if enough of a market for him crops up, will determine the short-term direction of the franchise.
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Big issue 2: The long-term direction of the franchise, at least as things are set up now, starts with forward Jonathan Isaac, who made dramatic improvements over the course of the year and has to be an early candidate for Most Improved Player in 2019-20.
Ideally, the team will have Isaac alongside center Mo Bamba, the kind of long, imposing frontcourt pairing that the front office of Jeff Weltman and John Hammond wants as the foundation with star forward Aaron Gordon. The hope is that those three will remain foundational pieces through the last years of the contracts of Timofey Mozgov (one more season, $16.7 million) and Evan Fournier (two more seasons, $34 million).
Here’s where the needle is especially difficult to thread: The Magic would like to remain competitive enough to attract free agents in the summer of 2020, but they can’t overpay Vucevic and Ross or else they won’t have cap space in 2020.
It’s a tough challenge, trying to build for the long term while you’re still a .500-ish team. But it’s where the Magic are.
Free-agent outlook: Vucevic and Ross are the headline issues in Orlando, but the Magic will have another major decision — what will they do at point guard?
The team took a low-risk gamble on former No. 1 pick Markelle Fultz, acquiring him from Philadelphia for Jonathon Simmons, a first-rounder from OKC next year (protected for the top 20) and a second-rounder. But it’s highly unlikely the Magic will toss the point-guard keys to Fultz anytime soon.
There’s a chance Orlando could push for a veteran via trade, like Mike Conley or Jrue Holiday (if he becomes available). The Magic could seek a veteran free agent to serve as a sort of short-term stopgap option, like Ricky Rubio or Goran Dragic.
But if the Magic want to help the young core grow together, the summer would be a good time to make a push for a young restricted free agent, and they’re expected to have interest in Boston’s Terry Rozier, who is 25. There is, too, Nets All-Star point guard D’Angelo Russell, who is 23 but will prove more expensive and less likely to be let go by Brooklyn, which has the choice to match any offer.
At worst, the team will bring back D.J. Augustin, who had a solid all-around year. But the search for a young point guard will continue.
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The young folks: It may feel like Gordon has been around forever, but he is only 23 years old and coming off a solid season (16.0 points, 7.4 rebounds, 3.7 assists) on both ends of the floor. He figures to be a near-term fixture.
But it will be Bamba and Isaac, at 20 and 21 years old, respectively, who determine how high this roster’s ceiling will be. Isaac averaged 9.6 points and 5.5 rebounds, but he really began clicking back when he logged his second career double-double on Jan. 31 — he averaged 11.8 points on 44.8 percent shooting (35.9 percent from the 3-point line) from there.
Bamba, the No. 6 pick last year, played limited minutes this season, but he flashed some 3-point range and had multiple blocks in a game 19 times, 16 times while playing fewer than 20 minutes. He was very prone to turnovers and overaggressive fouls, and Bamba’s season was cut short by a broken tibia, but he showed some promise.
Fultz, too, is only 20 and may begin to fulfill the promise that made him the No. 1 pick now that he is away from the pressure of Philadelphia. Rookie Melvin Frazier did not get much run this season, but he is still a prospect worth watching on both ends of the floor, especially if Ross leaves.
Wait till next year: The Magic have a solid young core with good athleticism and tremendous length. They could be a fearsome defensive team once (or if) Isaac and Bamba catch up to Gordon, a process that will require another couple of years.
What happens around those three will determine where this team finds itself next season. If Orlando keeps the roster together, another 40-something win season and a playoff trip are likely.
Long-term, it makes sense to let Vucevic and Ross walk, since both will command contracts of at least three or four years. Orlando has bigger plans than to chase the East’s No. 7 or 8 seeds.
That would mean the Magic won’t get back to the playoffs next season, but it could mean more time for the young pieces to develop.