As most of the world awaits the start of the college basketball season next week — and with it, the opportunity to see the next generation of NBA rookies — across the pond, an 18-year-old is already staking his claim to be the No. 1 overall pick come next June’s NBA Draft.
Real Madrid’s Luka Doncic has delivered historic performances for both club and country already this season. In September, he helped power Slovenia to a EuroBasket championship alongside teammate Goran Dragic as he became the youngest player to be named to the event’s All-Tournament team since Arvydas Sabonis in 1983. Since then, he’s averaged 26.9 points, 9.3 rebounds and 6.7 assists per 40 minutes for Real Madrid across all competitions, including Spain’s domestic league, the toughest in Europe, and EuroLeague, basketball’s equivalent of soccer’s Champions League.
Yet, despite production unmatched by any European prospect his age in recent memory — or possibly ever (stats databases don’t reach back far enough) — Doncic remains a complicated figure likely to inspire heated debates. Those debates will center on a significant theoretical question related to the importance of physical tools at basketball’s highest level and what that means for where the teenager will fit in the modern NBA and how much upside he actually has.
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Doncic’s strengths are universally recognized. At 6-7 and nearly 230 pounds, he possesses the skills of a point guard in a wing’s body. It’s really just a matter of what position he slots in at in a lineup. Real Madrid frequently uses him as a lead ball-handler, but he can also play away from the ball. In that sense, Doncic is already a valuable commodity when it comes to team construction. Offensively, a front office can build around him a variety of ways.
The easiest place to start with Doncic is his passing, and it’s one of the primary reasons to put the ball in his hands as much as possible. His combination of size and court vision gives him the ability to sling passes that most other point guards can only dream of. For example, Doncic launching a two-handed overhead pass from the top of the key to a shooter in the corner is not an infrequent occurrence. His passing ability makes him a dangerous threat in the pick-and-roll as well where he likes to slip bounce passes through the defense to a rolling big man. Between launching from overhead and sneaking passes down low, Doncic can create for his teammates from a variety of different angles.
In transition, Doncic is capable of whipping hit ahead passes or launching long outlets. It’s in these situations where his court vision seems to shine most, as he’s a bit more measured in the halfcourt, often waiting for a ball screen to read and react to a set defense.
Doncic is a menacing scorer out of those ball screens, too. He displays a certain level of maturity in his ability to get defenders on his hip when he gets into the lane and when using re-screens to create additional space. However, because he lacks the explosive quickness to turn the corner against many defenders, Doncic is going to have to rely on his off the dribble jumper as both a tool to score and to draw in more athletic defenders when he’s looking to drive.
The Slovenian has finally started to knock down his 3-point attempts at a consistent rate this season, shooting 36.2 percent across all competitions. His high free throw percentage (84.6) suggests that could even improve as he becomes more comfortable with range. If Doncic can consistently connect on off-the-dribble 3s — his go-to move to get the shot off is a step back featuring a right to left crossover through his legs to create space — he’ll be a scheme-changing ball-handler. That’s largely where his offensive upside lies.
At worst, Doncic can fit in offensively off the ball, acting as a second or third ball-handler as needed. While he lacks the burst to blow by defenders one-on-one from a standstill, he is quick enough to beat them on close outs. Doncic is also a viable catch-and-shoot option and a very smart off-ball cutter. Combining those skills with his passing sets a pretty high floor for his offensive game.
So far, it’s been easy to paper over Doncic’s lack of athleticism with his elite skill level on the offensive end. Although there should be some concern about his ability to be a top tier one-on-one creator in the NBA, his production at the highest levels of European competition allays many of those worries. It’s harder for Doncic to overcome his lack of physical tools, including what appears to be average length, below average vertical explosiveness and mediocre lateral quickness on defense.
Although Doncic is largely credited with being an intelligent defender who uses his body well to cut off penetration, he seems to regularly find himself getting beat off the bounce. It happens most often when the ball rotates to Doncic’s man. He has a habit of being upright and often overcompensates by getting out of position. That gives up driving lanes to opposing offensive players that force potentially backbreaking defensive rotations from his teammates.
Whereas Doncic’s skill makes up for his lack of athleticism on offense, his intensity helps compensate somewhat on defense. He’ll offer resistance when posted up by bigger opponents, even if he’s not going to win, and he’s always active trying to recover to shooters. Doncic’s competitiveness also translates on the defensive boards where he shows good timing and a willingness to battle, often allowing him to rip and run to create transition opportunities.
Still, there’s only so much ground that playing hard can make up defensively without the physical tools to back it up. Doncic is likely going to need a strong defensive lineup built around him in the NBA, and on most nights, he’ll be tasked with guarding one of the opposing team’s worst offensive players. Notably, though, Doncic’s size does mean a head coach will have more flexibility with where to hide him.
What we’re left with is a high-IQ 18-year-old who is putting up historic numbers in Europe and possesses primary ball-handler upside assuming he can consistently knock down 3-pointers off the dribble. Doncic will probably never be a high-level defender in the NBA, but he’ll try hard enough to save face. That package is currently enough to make the Slovenian the favorite to be the No. 1 pick in 2018.
However, there are a slew of gifted freshmen that could push him for the top spot this season, and all of them are more athletic than Doncic, meaning they have a greater margin for error when it comes to actual basketball skill. You can never teach Doncic how to be 6-10 like Michael Porter Jr., but you might have some small sliver of a chance to teach Porter to be at least some percentage of the passer that Doncic is. Combined with his smooth scoring arsenal, that would make Porter an enticing package. Similar things can be said about Duke’s Marvin Bagley III and Arizona’s DeAndre Ayton.
And that’s where debates about Doncic versus the field will ultimately wind up. Is it possible to teach his skill level to players with better physical attributes? Or does Doncic possess some kind of innate basketball genius that simply can’t be taught? To make matters more difficult, we’ll never get a one-to-one comparison with Doncic until he’s drafted since he won’t play college basketball like the rest of 2018’s top prospects.
For now, Doncic remains in pole position, having used the data points NBA teams have available to show his worth. However, as the college basketball season gets underway and other elite prospects come under the microscope, expect to hear more conversations about athleticism and upside. Ayton, Bagley and Porter are all incredibly talented in their own right, but to start, they’ll all be chasing that teenager in Europe who’s already established himself as a worthwhile No. 1 pick.