Lauri Markkanen’s 100th 3-pointer of the season should have been a cause for celebration. Instead, it quickly got lost in the conversation.
When ESPN noted that Markkanen had made 100 3-pointers faster than Stephen Curry, Ray Allen, Dirk Nowitzki, Reggie Miller and Michael Jordan, Trail Blazers fans were quick to point out that Damian Lillard was a glaring omission from their graphic. Not only because Lillard beat out the same group of players when he reached the mark in his rookie season — it took Lillard 44 games to make 100 3-pointers compared to 58 games for Curry and 76 games for Allen — but because it was Lillard’s record Markkanen had just broken.
So rather than the focus being on Markkanen, a 7-footer from Finland who worked his way into the same conversation as some of the greatest shooters in NBA history, it was on Lillard being snubbed once again.
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It’s a shame because Markkanen was beginning to change the narrative surrounding the trade that brought him to Chicago. He’s not in the Rookie of the Year conversation with Ben Simmons and Donovan Mitchell, but he’s been better than anyone could have expected with averages of 14.8 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.1 assists and 0.6 blocks per game. Those numbers give the Bulls a legitimate piece to work with as they continue to rebuild and a potential All-Star down the road depending on his game develops on both ends of the floor.
To get a better understanding of what Markkanen brings to the table, let’s take a closer look at what he has showcased thus far as a scorer and as a defender.
A versatile shooter
Markkanen is already more than capable as a long-range shooter. Almost half of his shot attempts with the Bulls have been catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, and he’s converted 35.6 percent of those opportunities. According to ESPN, the only power forwards who have made more 3-pointers than him on the season are Anthony Tolliver, Ryan Anderson, Kyle Kuzma, Dario Saric and Carmelo Anthony. Other than Anderson, however, each of them has played in at least nine more games than Markkanen.
A lot of those 3-pointers have come on spot-ups, where Markkanen has generated 29.1 percent of his offense and ranks in the 43.7 percentile with 0.95 points per possession. He’s not the most efficient scorer on those plays, which is to be expected from a rookie who is still adjusting to the NBA’s extended 3-point line, but Markkanen has incredibly smooth mechanics for a 7-footer. Not only does his height make it almost impossible for opponents to block his shot on the perimeter, he doesn’t need much space to get off a clean look thanks to his quick release.
The combination gives Markkanen the tools he needs to develop into an elite spot-up threat:
Markkanen can score off screens as well. The only big man who has outscored him in that department on the season is Kristaps Porzingis, who Markkanen drew comparisons to before the 2017 NBA Draft because of the versatility he provides as a shooter from the power forward position. He probably won’t find ever himself near the top of the league in scoring frequency off screens, but Markkanen’s ability to shoot on the move means he’s not restricted to spotting up on the perimeter and popping in pick-and-rolls in the half court.
Having a volume shooter from the 3-point line at his size is a tremendous weapon in today’s NBA. Even though the Bulls don’t have the surrounding talent to compete in the Eastern Conference for now, Markkanen is an easy player to build around because he doesn’t have to dominate the ball to make his presence felt on offense.
He can space the floor from the power forward or center position by spotting up on the perimeter, and he’d make a natural pairing with a player who can create his own shot in pick-and-rolls because he’s comfortable popping to the perimeter. He’d fit in well with a dominant transition scorer for similar reasons, as he can beat opposing big men up the floor and trail ball handlers for early 3-pointers.
While most of his offense comes from the 3-point line, Markkanen has also proven he can attack closeouts and make plays for himself off the dribble. A small portion of his offense comes from midrange, and he’s made only 35.5 percent of his 2-point pull-ups, but he looks comfortable putting the ball on the floor and shooting over defenders when teams run him off the 3-point line.
Further separating Markkanen from traditional stretch fours is his athleticism on straight-line drives to the basket...
... and his agility when navigating his way around defenders in the paint:
Those pull-ups and drives could become a bigger part of Markkanen’s game if he develops into a more reliable 3-point shooter. Both he and the Bulls would benefit if he attacked the basket more than he pulled up from midrange, but it’s important that he’s comfortable taking whatever the defense gives him because it will open up the rest of his game on offense.
A raw playmaker
The biggest concern with Markkanen’s game coming into the draft was he wouldn’t provide much value on offense other than his 3-point shooting. His ability to space the floor gives him a clear path to becoming a Ryan Anderson-type of role player in the NBA, but Markkanen has the potential to be more than just a shooter if he can improve as a playmaker.
That part of Markkanen’s game is still a work on progress, though. Of the 330 baskets he has made this season, 74 have been unassisted. Of the 74 that have been unassisted, 22 have come in the form of putbacks. Take those second-chance opportunities out of the equation, and Markkanen has created only 52 baskets for himself this season.
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In his defense, the Bulls haven’t given Markkanen many opportunities to create for himself. According to NBA.com, less than 20.0 percent of his offense has come in isolation, as the ball handler in pick-and-rolls and with his back to the basket this season. He has struggled to score efficiently out of two of those plays — Markkanen is currently averaging 0.55 points per isolation possession and 0.78 points per post-up possession — but he’s shown enough to believe those could become a bigger part of his game moving forward.
The bulk of Markkanen’s reps as a playmaker have come in the post, where he uses his size and shooting ability to score against smaller opponents. Similar to Porzingis, he can shoot over defenders when he faces-up to the basket, and he’s shown the ability to turn over his left shoulder and his right shoulder when his back is to the basket. Markkanen has even experimented shooting with his left and right hand when he gets into the paint, although he has made only seven of his 21 hook shot attempts this season.
Holding Marrkanen back from being a more efficient post-up scorer at this stage of his development is his overreliance on midrange jump shots and his inability to capitalize on opportunities closer to the basket at a higher rate. It’s something he might become more adept at when he adds more size to his frame because it would help him establish deeper post position and play through contact. He’d also benefit from playing alongside better shooters who can give him more room to work with when he gets the ball on the low block.
Outside of the post is where Markkanen’s playmaking gets interesting. Despite not having the most advanced handle, he is good enough with the ball in his hands to create basic plays for himself out of the pick-and-roll and handoffs. It’s culminated in him scoring a combined 66 points on 71 pick-and-roll and handoff possessions this season — plays usually reserved for guards and playmaking forwards — which is good enough for him to be above average in both categories.
A lot of those possessions have ended in midrange pull-ups, but there aren’t many 7-footers who can reject a ball screen, take a couple of dribbles with their weak hand and create separation with a step back against a perimeter defender like DeMarre Carroll:
Markkanen has also flashed some skill in isolation, albeit it on a much smaller sample size. While he’s only scored 12 points on 22 isolation possessions — ranking him in the 5.1 percentile — plays like this show off his versatility:
Markkanen is unlikely to create a large amount of his points in isolation and as the ball handler in pick-and-rolls, but his ability to handle the ball opens up a world of possibilities for the Bulls. They can do simple things like have a guard set a screen on Markkanen’s defender, paving the way for him to pull up if a defender chooses to go underneath the screen, or move into the post on a switch. The Bulls can do the same with whomever they’re playing at center in the hopes of getting the opposing team’s least mobile defender to switch onto Markkanen. From there, he can put them on an island while his teammates space the floor for him to attack in isolation.
Markkanen is a long way from being able to do those things consistently against NBA defenders, but he at least has the potential to get his shot off in a variety of ways. Time is on his side, too, considering he’s 20 years old and the Bulls’ rebuild is only getting started.
A better defender than expected
Markkanen’s limitations as a defender were made clear heading into the draft. As much of a factor as his size can be around the basket, he lacks the length to be a traditional rim protector and the strength to battle with opposing big men in the post and on the boards. Markkanen has been a better defensive rebounder than expected — being teammates with Robin Lopez certainly helps — but he’s only averaging 0.6 blocks per game in a Bulls uniform.
More concerning is the fact that opponents are shooting 62.0 percent within six feet of the basket when being guarded by Markkanen. It’s not as bad as Nikola Jokic, who is allowing opponents to shoot 66.5 percent in those situations, but it puts Markkanen on the same page as the likes of Nikola Vucevic, Frank Kaminsky, Greg Monroe and Kelly Olynyk.
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While that can be problematic, it doesn’t mean Markkanen is incapable of making an impact on defense. The hope is he’ll make up for his limitations as a defender by becoming the type of player who can keep up with smaller players on the perimeter, sort of like this:
Chicago Bulls rookie Lauri Markkanen swats Steph Curry's shot right back into his face! pic.twitter.com/0dmt96Tv3w
— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) January 18, 2018
Curry isn’t the only guard Markkanen has successfully slowed down in isolation this season. He did something similar to Jrue Holiday in the Bulls’ loss to the Pelicans on Jan. 22, once in the first overtime:
Then again in the second overtime:
According to NBA.com, opponents are averaging 0.86 points per isolation possession when being guarded by Markkanen, ranking him in the 55.3 percentile. It hasn’t manifested in the Bulls being a better defensive team with him on the court, but, as Bulls head coach Fred Hoiberg explained earlier in the season, it’s an encouraging sign for Markkanen’s future.
"He's shown a great ability to move his feet, to stay in front of his man with great anticipation," Hoiberg said about Markkanen. "He's a smart defender, he understands rotations. It's not easy to grasp, it's such a different concept than the college game with all the rotations that happens at the NBA level. The big thing with Lauri is his IQ and it's helping him on the defensive end of the floor."
The agility Markkanen displayed on those plays helps him in other areas, too. If the Bulls don’t want him to switch, he can pressure ball handlers in pick-and-rolls as a help defender and recover in time to prevent his assignment from scoring an easy basket.
As for his IQ, it shows in the rotations he makes as a help defender. This one in particular prevented Kemba Walker, who was in the midst of a career night with 47 points, from spoiling the Bulls’ fourth-quarter comeback on Nov. 17:
There have been some rookie mistakes along the way, but Markkanen’s outlook as a defender is far brighter now than it was this time last year. As long as he continues at this rate, Markkanen has the potential to be a plus defender in the NBA.
What to watch for next
Because his jump shot is his greatest asset, the Bulls need Markkanen to become a consistent threat from the perimeter. He’s certainly had his moments this season — the most memorable being when he hit eight 3-pointers en route to a career-high 33 points against Porzingis and the Knicks at Madison Square Garden — but he’s made 29.1 percent of his 3-point attempts in the 22 games since. If Markkanen can finish the season strong by snapping out of his shooting slump, it would set him up well for a breakout sophomore season.
Markkanen’s defense is equally important. A 7-footer who can make 3-pointers in volume on one end and hold his own on the other is an incredible value piece in today’s NBA, especially if he proves he can log more minutes at center. Whereas his weaknesses as a defender means he’s best suited as a power forward for now, lineups with Markkanen at the five have the potential to be dynamic enough on both ends to gives opposing teams problems.
Regardless of whether those improvements are enough for Markkanen to become an All-Star, it gives the Bulls an exciting young player who should be a huge part of their future success.
