For the first time since 1995, the Lakers enter the NBA offseason without Kobe Bryant on their balance sheets.
Bryant helped define the West Coast’s glamour team for two decades, but securing the No. 2 pick in the second consecutive NBA Draft allows them the chance to create the foundation for the first great post-Kobe Lakers team. The front office’s burden, then, is to avoid rushing that foundation and making mistakes now that could hamper the future.
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Let’s take a look at their free agents, salary cap space and assets for this summer before breaking down what needs to be done.
Potential free agents: Jordan Clarkson (restricted), Roy Hibbert (unrestricted), Brandon Bass ($3.1 million player option), Tarik Black (restricted), Marcelo Huertas (restricted), Ryan Kelly (restricted), Robert Sacre (unrestricted) and Metta World Peace (unrestricted).
Likely cap space: $59.9 million.
Realistic maximum cap space (using $94.4 million estimate): $61 million.
2016 NBA Draft assets: No. 2 and No. 32 overall.
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The Lakers remain one of sports’ glamour franchises playing in one of the most desirable cities for superstars and celebrities alike. Even with a little tarnish after the passing of Jerry Buss and recent stumbles, the Lakers have a significant number of advantages for attracting free agents.
Those factors create a circumstance where cap space is more valuable to the Lakers than just about every other NBA team at any given time. This logic often centers on maximum-contract players, but the biggest markets can also secure better talent for minimum contracts and the mid-level exceptions, particularly if they are competitive.
That level of competitive advantage is incredibly important but must be wielded responsibly. The league has four teams in Los Angeles and New York, but none of them have manipulated cap space intelligently since the 2011 collective bargaining agreement expanded that advantage by making it functionally impossible for superstars to sign extensions, ensuring they hit the open market far more often. In the last five years, those franchises have succumbed to short-term pressures and saddled their books with excessive contracts that took them out of the free agent sweepstakes.
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This summer will indicate where the Lakers see themselves in the broader landscape. If Durant (or LeBron James, if that’s even remotely on the table) does not come this year, there may not be another player who could be the lynchpin of the next great Lakers team. Players such as Hassan Whiteside and Compton product DeMar DeRozan would certainly make the team better for 2016-17 but severely limit the team’s ability to make a major splash when that opportunity next presents itself.
Whiteside poses a more interesting question because the 2017 unrestricted free agent market is incredibly strong but likely does not contain a rim protecting center with his lofty ceiling. The challenge there is that it took washing out in the NBA and spending some time in the wilderness for Whiteside to find himself and this will be his first substantial contract so they would be in uncharted territory for a player whose coach benched him in crunch time at times this season.
The Lakers will be a part of trade discussions for prominent players under contract, but it does not appear any young stars will be available this summer. DeMarcus Cousins has two years left on his team-friendly contract, and the Kings are not looking to shop him right now. Los Angeles native James Harden does not appear to be on the Rockets’ trading block, either.
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As enticing as it could be to improve right away, some lottery luck the last two years has given the Lakers enough ammunition to have a decent shot at a young foundation even without free agency. D’Angelo Russell showed early signs of being a strong offensive player, while the No. 2 overall pick in this draft should become either Brandon Ingram or Ben Simmons, depending on whom Philadelphia takes.
Building more slowly has an additional benefit for the Lakers. They still owe the Sixers a pick, which is top-three protected next season and unprotected in 2018. On top of the value of a top-three pick in a strong draft class, the Lakers have an additional benefit in wanting
While a top-three choice in what is widely purported to be a strong draft class is a strong reward too, retaining the pick has another massive benefit. When the Lakers acquired Dwight Howard in 2012, they had already given up a future first-round pick to the Suns for Steve Nash (which is what the 76ers own now). Given that, the only way to send a later pick to Orlando for Howard was to extend it two years after the obligation to Phoenix. Because of rules in the Collective Bargaining Agreement, that pick had to resolve by 2019, so the sides agreed that if the Lakers somehow had not sent a choice to the Suns by 2018, the Magic would get second round choices in 2018 and 2019. As such, keeping the pick one more year turns two first-round obligations into one in a year when they should be much better.
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The only Lakers free agent who matters to the future is Clarkson. His situation works in their favor since the Arenas provision prevents another team from offering more than the mid-level exception for the first or second season. The deal could then ascend to what Clarkson’s maximum would be without the Arenas limitation, but that structure fits shockingly well with what the Lakers would want to do anyway. A fourth season would be allowed (Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik got three-year deals through this provision from Houston), and that could change the thinking a little but having someone of Clarkson’s talent level at a bargain price for 2016-17 and 2017-18 provides enough of an incentive to let that kind of offer sheet happen. Itt could be argued that the other team would be doing the Lakers a favor since they could not structure a contract that way themselves.
With Russell, Clarkson, Randle and the No. 2 overall pick, the Lakers have an intriguing young foundation with cap space to put them over the top. Whether or not they can hold firm will play a major part in shaping the title picture for years to come, as amazing as that sounds.