Why LeBron James, Lakers can't tank: Who benefits from Los Angeles' bad season?

Gilbert McGregor

Why LeBron James, Lakers can't tank: Who benefits from Los Angeles' bad season? image

Following their 28-point loss to the New Orleans Pelicans where the Crypto.com Arena crowd booed the Lakers off of the floor, they had a chance to bounce back against the Dallas Mavericks two days later.

They looked to have found their rhythm, erasing a 21-point deficit thanks to a dominant third quarter against the Mavericks, but the Lakers fell flat again, going down 109-104.

It was their third loss in a row at home and they now sit at 27-34 on the season, 3.5 games back of the eighth seed LA Clippers, making it evidently clear that the team is bound for the NBA's Play-In Tournament at season's end.

MORE: LeBron James says Lakers had 'no answers' for Pelicans' run

Unlike last year when the Lakers were favored to emerge from the tournament to make legitimate noise in the NBA Playoffs, this team will likely finish ninth or 10th and face an uphill battle to qualify for the playoffs.

But the Lakers can't afford to write the 2021-22 campaign off as a lost season.

Not only would conceding this season waste an All-NBA campaign from LeBron James, but it would also have no payoff as the Lakers don't own a first-round pick in the 2022 NBA Draft.

MORE: LeBron James addresses his future with the Lakers, wanting to play one season with his son

So in addition to the many detractors taking pleasure in the Lakers' abysmal year, there are two NBA franchises that are direct beneficiaries of the Lakers' downfall.

Depending on the Lakers' finish and potential draft lottery results, one of the Pelicans or Grizzlies will add insult to injury this offseason. Here's how it can play out.

NBA LEAGUE PASS: Sign up to unlock live out-of-market games (7-day free trial)

Who owns the Lakers' first-round pick in 2022?

  • The Grizzlies receive the Lakers' pick if it falls between 11 and 30
  • The Pelicans receive the Lakers' pick if it is in the top 10

As part of the 2019 blockbuster trade that sent Anthony Davis to Los Angeles, the Lakers sent out their first-round pick in the 2022 draft to the Pelicans along with more draft compensation in the years to come.

MORE: How Rob Pelinka's roster moves pushed LeBron James, Lakers from powerful to pitiful

In 2021, the Pelicans sent the Lakers' pick (top-10 protected) to the Grizzlies in the deal that sent Jonas Valanciunas to New Orleans. 

Lakers' chances to make the NBA Playoffs

According to FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR Predictions Model, the Lakers are projected to finish with a 34-48 record and have a nine percent chance of qualifying for the 2022 NBA Playoffs. 

Per those same projections, the Lakers would finish with the league's ninth-worst record, which would mean the pick has a 96.0 percent chance of being sent to New Orleans.

If the Lakers have the 10th-best lottery odds, the Pelicans would have roughly an 80 percent chance of getting the pick, with the Grizzlies having just under a 20 percent chance.

Should the Lakers make the playoffs, the pick will go to Memphis.

Lakers remaining schedule

According to Tankathon, which calculates remaining schedule strength by opponent win percentage, the Lakers have the second-hardest remaining schedule in the league, with two meetings scheduled against each of the Suns, Warriors and Nuggets. The Lakers also have two games remaining against the Pelicans.

To make matters worse, LA is a combined 1-4 against New Orleans and Memphis this season. When either team defeats the Lakers, they win in more ways than one.

Gilbert McGregor

Gilbert McGregor Photo

Gilbert McGregor first joined The Sporting News in 2018 as a content producer for Global editions of NBA.com. Before covering the game, McGregor played basketball collegiately at Wake Forest, graduating with a Communication degree in 2016. McGregor began covering the NBA during the 2017-18 season and has been on hand for a number of league events.