Kyle Lowry continues to add to his career resume.
With his status as the Greatest Raptor of All Time already cemented, Lowry moved on to the Heat as a free agent during the 2021 offseason. And, despite some rough patches, each of Lowry's first two seasons in Miami has resulted in a deep playoff run.
After coming one win shy of the NBA Finals in 2022, the Heat are now four wins away from an NBA championship, bringing Lowry back to the Finals stage for the second time in five years.
Most remember how things turned out the first time.
Lowry, 37, hasn't exactly turned in averages that jump off the page since accepting a reserve role, but he's still capable of turning in signature performances and making the type of impact that doesn't always show up in the stat sheet.
That immeasurable impact is something Lowry has made throughout the course of his career.
With respect to his career, it's safe to say that the 17-year veteran is closer to the end than the beginning, adding another element to the opportunity that lies ahead. So, what would a second NBA championship mean for Lowry's legacy?
As the Finals get underway, let's peel back the layers of the GROAT's case for a Hall of Fame selection.
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What are Kyle Lowry's chances to make the Hall of Fame?
Following the Raptors' historic run to the 2019 NBA title, I explored Lowry's Hall of Fame case using Basketball-Reference's Hall of Fame probability model.
In 2019, the model, which factors NBA championships, All-Star Game selections and players' appearances on statistical leaderboards, among other factors, gave Lowry a 65.2 percent chance of making the Hall of Fame.
Fast forward four years and Lowry's Hall of Fame probability currently sits at 85.7 percent, good for 12th among all active players and ahead of a few notable names, including former teammate Kawhi Leonard, current teammates Jimmy Butler and Kevin Love, former Finals adversary Draymond Green and current Finals opponent Nikola Jokic.
A look at the Hall of Fame probabilities of active players is truly fascinating.
| Rank | Player | Probability |
| 1. | LeBron James | 100% |
| 2. | Kevin Durant | 100% |
| 3. | Chris Paul | 100% |
| 4. | Stephen Curry | 100% |
| 5. | James Harden | 99.9% |
| 6. | Russell Westbrook | 99.9% |
| 7. | Anthony Davis | 98.6% |
| 8. | Damian Lillard | 96.4% |
| 9. | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 94.9% |
| 10. | Paul George | 93.6% |
| 11. | Kyrie Irving | 93.5% |
| 12. | Kyle Lowry | 85.7% |
| 13. | Kawhi Leonard | 77.7% |
| 14. | Draymond Green | 76.8% |
| 15. | Nikola Jokic | 74.0% |
Based on the model, the 20.5 percent spike in Lowry's probability comes from an additional All-Star selection in 2020 as well as top-10 finishes in assists per game in the 2019-20 season and the 2021-22 season.
With that in mind, another NBA title would be a big boost to Lowry's Hall of Fame probability, per the Basketball-Reference model.
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Let this serve as a reminder that the model is not the end-all-be-all of determining whether or not a player will be enshrined in Springfield.
In this case, the factors that go into Basketball-Reference's calculation are likely underselling Lowry's chances to make it to the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame, which factors in all basketball accomplishments, not just those made at the NBA level.
In addition to his decorated NBA career, Lowry enjoyed a successful two-year career at Villanova and won Olympic gold while representing the United States at the 2016 games in Rio. Stats also can't measure Lowry's impact on the Raptors franchise and basketball in the country of Canada as a whole.
With or without another title, Lowry's got quite the Hall of Fame case. Winning again in 2023 could very well be the final accolade that gives him an ironclad case.
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Kyle Lowry career accolades, stats
- 2019 NBA champion
- 2016 Olympic gold medalist
- Six-time NBA All-Star
- 2015-16 All-NBA Third Team
- 14.6 points per game
- 6.3 assists per game
- 4.4 rebounds per game
- 42.4 percent field goal shooting
- 36.7 percent 3-point shooting
- Raptors all-time assists leader (4,277)
- Raptors all-time steals leader (873)
- Raptors all-time triple-doubles leader (16)
