Phil Jackson’s Knicks had a quietly successful Summer 2015, bringing in a few good-value free agents (Robin Lopez), taking the smart risks (Kyle O’Quinn) and nailing the franchise’s most important NBA Draft pick in three decades (Kristaps Porzingis).
All the advantages of last offseason are gone. The Knicks need to add more quality players without the benefit of a draft pick or a ton of cap space. Their possibilities are also dependent on what Arron Afflalo and Derrick Williams decide on their player options.
MORE: Ranking the 23 best available NBA free agents
Let’s take a look at their free agents, salary cap space and assets for this summer before breaking down what needs to be done.
Potential free agents: Arron Afflalo ($8 million player option), Langston Galloway (restricted), Lance Thomas (unrestricted), Derrick Williams ($4.6 million player option), Kevin Seraphin (unrestricted), Tony Wroten (non-guaranteed), Cleanthony Early (restricted), Sasha Vujacic (unrestricted) and Louis Amundson (unrestricted).
Likely cap space: $25.6 million.
Realistic maximum cap space (using $92 million estimate): $29.6 million.
2016 NBA Draft assets: None. (First-round pick owed to the Raptors, via the Nuggets, and second round pick owed to Houston.)
MORE: SN's latest NBA Mock Draft: Sorry, Knicks fans
It says something about how far away the Knicks were in 2014-15 that even with a massive talent influx last offseason, the team still needs substantially more to be competitive.
Carmelo Anthony looms largest in a summer without a draft pick. One of Jackson’s earliest moves was offering Anthony a contract that included a no-trade clause and a trade bonus along with a near-maximum salary. That gives Anthony complete control over any possible departure from the Knicks. As NBC Sports’ Dan Feldman has laid out before, Anthony has a good financial reason not to want to approve any trade possibilities before July, when the league year changes over and that trade bonus substantially increases, which limits the Knicks further.
Do the Knicks want to trade Anthony? That remains up for debate, but he appeared occasionally committed to and occasionally frustrated by the Knicks’ rebuilding last season. In some ways, the lack of a clear resolution can help the franchise’s long-term plans because it limits their ability to spend money unwisely in a weak 2016 free agent class.
MORE: Knicks fans should give up the thirst for Mike Conley
Another major factor in New York’s financial flexibility this summer is what Arron Afflalo and Derrick Williams decide on their player options. Both took 1+1 deals (one year plus a player option) last summer, and they have a combined value of about $12.6 million for 2016-17. Neither exceeded expectations to guarantee themselves massive raises this offseason, but there is enough money around for them to feel somewhat confident. Even if this summer only leads to longer deals at slightly reduced rates, that security could be worth opting out.
The Knicks also have a few free agents they should want to retain. Langston Galloway did well in going from a NBA Development League call-up to an valuable backup guard, and the team has the ability to match an offer sheet he signs with another team or just agree to terms beforehand. Either way, waiting to sign would be helpful because his new contract would replace a small $2.7 million cap hold when they match. While it is unlikely to matter considering his estimated price tag, other teams are limited by the Arenas provision to offer Galloway a deal worth no more than the $5.6 million mid-level exception in the first two seasons.
Lance Thomas is an unrestricted free agent, but the Knicks have Early Bird rights and could exceed the cap to sign him for about $5.5 million or less in 2016-17 on a contract running 2-4 seasons. If his value goes higher than that — and it might after he averaged 8.2 points per game and shot 40.4 percent on 3-pointers while defending both forward positions — the team would need to use cap space instead.
MORE: NBA security blankets: Who will new coaches bring with them?
New York could try to move the final year of point guard Jose Calderon’s contract, but $7.7 million is a high salary for his contribution even on this market. It would be unwise for them to offer any of their limited draft assets to unload that salary unless the absolute perfect player were ready to come on board and they needed the space. Otherwise they should hold onto him unless a team needs a point guard and can take on Calderon outright or close to it.
Like the other big market teams, unless Kevin Durant wants to come this summer, the Knicks should strongly consider keeping their powder dry for 2017. They could clear enough cap space for two max contracts without much issue — possibly more depending on what happens with Anthony. Next summer’s free agency class is a loaded group with Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Kyle Lowry, Gordon Hayward, Serge Ibaka, Paul Millsap and more.
Any long-term contracts the Knicks sign now directly affect their ability to bring in talent the following summer. That timeline also allows the team to get a much better idea what Porzingis’ long-term role should be before finding the right frontcourt partner if that is not Robin Lopez.
MORE: Every team's single greatest NBA Draft regret
The specter of 2017 means the Knicks would be wise to sign shorter-term deals or acquire players on expiring contracts. Since it will be hard to get worthwhile players to take a one-year agreement, the trade route could make the most sense but their glaring need for guards could draw someone disappointed by their offers to try again after spending a season at Madison Square Garden.
This summer will be the strongest test in recent memory for if the Knicks’ organization can tolerate leaving money unspent for a summer. If it cannot, this could be the follow-up to 2010-11, the season that brought in Anthony and Amar’e Stoudemire and from which it took the team years to recover.