Big issue 1: Cap space. It’s a wondrous thing for a big-market NBA team, so full of promise and possibilities. In New York, there’s plenty of it.
But there should be only a couple of names that really matter when it comes to that space — Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant. There’s no secret that the Knicks plan to pursue both, selling them on teaming up in New York, leaving behind the tensions in Boston and Golden State, respectively, for a fresh start with an iconic franchise.
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If the Knicks can pull it off, great. If they could somehow package their young players and draft picks to get Anthony Davis from New Orleans, too, then they’ll have had what might be the greatest offseason in league history.
It’s not impossible. That’s the beauty of cap space.
Oh, but there is an ugly side to cap space, and that is what the neurotics among the Knicks fans (and what follower of this franchise wouldn’t have some level of neurosis?) have weighing on their minds. Having cap space does not mean this team will use it wisely.
After all, 2010 was not so long ago. Back then, the Knicks had meticulously curated their cap space under the assumption that being in New York would give them the pick of the free-agent litter, especially in their pursuit of LeBron James, Chris Bosh and others. Instead, the Knicks missed out on their first targets, wound up with Amar'e Stoudemire and his balky knee and overpaid Raymond Felton to top it off.
They simply can’t make that kind of mistake again. It’s got to be Durant and Irving, with maybe a Plan B that includes Kemba Walker and some well-priced second-tier free agents. But it can’t include a Plan C and Plan D that has the Knicks giving away max contracts to sub-All-Stars.
The Knicks gave up on Kristaps Porzingis suddenly ahead of this year’s trade deadline, giving the team a mostly blank slate heading into the summer. With picks from Dallas in 2021 and 2023, the Knicks have seven first-rounders in the coming five years, a solid base of assets with which to start rebuilding.
President Steve Mills and general manager Scott Perry can’t overreact if they miss out on certain free-agent targets, and they can’t be pressured into knee-jerk signings from the higher-ups (or, really, the one higher-up who matters, owner James Dolan). The plan must include an option for just packing away the cap space and keeping the flexibility in place for next year.
Big issue 2: The Knicks have had the No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft only one time in the last 50 years — in 1985, when they selected Patrick Ewing. Count that as a win.
Since then, they have had eight top-10 picks, and the wins are a little harder to find here: Kenny Walker (1986), Mike Sweetney (2003), Channing Frye (2005), Danilo Gallinari (2008), Jordan Hill (2009), Porzingis (2015), Frank Ntilikina (2017) and Kevin Knox (2018).
Some solid players. Some busts. And whatever it is you’d label the Porzingis years.
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This time around, the Knicks can’t afford a merely solid player, and they certainly can’t withstand a full-on bust. They’ll need some lottery luck — at least a top-three pick, but really, they’re desperate for No. 1 and a shot at Zion Williamson.
If they get the top pick, Williamson would be their guy, though there’s the possibility they could use the pick as part of a package to bring in Davis from New Orleans, who could be used to lure Durant and/or Irving.
That’s the big dream. The Knicks have done their part to have a terrible record and land themselves in the league’s bottom three. If they don’t win the lottery, they’ll need to nail the pick they do get.
Free-agent outlook: The Knicks must come into this offseason with a short list of free-agent names. If none agree to sign with the team, they should move on, develop Knox, Ntilikina, Dennis Smith Jr. and the rest as much as possible, investigate trade opportunities and get themselves back into the top five for next year’s draft while keeping cap space open for July 2020.
We know the chief names on the Knicks’ list will be Irving and Durant. After that, it’s questionable. Kawhi Leonard and Klay Thompson? Not likely, because if they leave their teams, it’ll be for Southern California. Walker and Jimmy Butler? Definitely worth a conversation, but point guard might not be a priority (especially if they wind up with Ja Morant in the draft), and Butler has caused chemistry issues everywhere he’s gone.
Al Horford, Marc Gasol, DeMarcus Cousins? Good gravy, Knicks, please try to avoid the aging and/or injury-recovering big men.
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There are not many more top-tier free agents worth chasing for the Knicks, not for near-max money. They can’t rebuild around, say, Khris Middleton. But they will need to field a team, and it is conceivable that they land only one big-time star (Walker being the best bet). They’d need to look into trading away some young players in that case and figure out what kind of roster they can construct from there.
For a team that has as much space as the Knicks, there should be the opportunity to land quality players at decent prices. Cap space can be used to absorb salaries in three-team trades and scoop up draft picks along the way as well. And guys like Julius Randle, Jeremy Lamb, Avery Bradley and Terrence Ross, to name a few, could be available for short-term deals.
The Knicks’ summer will be defined by whether they get a big name. But it could, too, be defined by what they do if they fail to get a big name.
The young folks: The Knicks go into the offseason with three prospects who will be just 21 years old by the end of July — Ntilikina, Smith and Mitchell Robinson — and this year’s lottery pick, Knox, on the roster. They’d like to add Williamson to that group, or at least attach that group to Williamson and trade the whole lot for Davis or some other top star.
Smith, acquired from Dallas in the Porzingis trade, has been productive, but he has seen his shot go awry since arriving in New York (27.5 percent on 3-pointers). He is not a particularly efficient scorer or passer and is caught between being a shooting guard and a point guard.
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It’s much the same for Ntilikina, who isn’t quite a starting-caliber point guard and is a wretched shooter, making only 33.7 percent from the field and 28.7 percent from the 3-point line. The Knicks hoped for some progress from Ntilikina this season, and coach David Fizdale wanted to see him develop with Smith down the stretch. But Ntilikina missed nearly two months with a groin injury, only returning in late March.
Both Robinson and Knox have shown promise this season, but they have been woefully inconsistent. The pair could make up a future frontcourt in New York if their development continues — and if the Knicks don’t make bigger moves in free agency and on the trade market.
Wait till next year: You could be watching the Knicks of Irving, Durant and Davis in just a few months, a team that would be good enough to vault quickly into contention in the Eastern Conference. Or you could spend next year watching a team doing much of what this team is doing — testing the talents of some young players and tanking for a draft pick.
There’s only a slim chance that the best-case scenario for the Knicks comes to fruition. More likely, it’s a second year of a tank-a-thon. There is some middle ground in which the team lands a good rookie like RJ Barrett, scores one major free agent (say, Walker), makes some trades and signs some solid non-max young players who have been undervalued elsewhere.
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In the East, where .500 puts you into the postseason, the Knicks could be in position to fight for the top eight next year, even without the Durant-Irving combo. For a team in need of a full rebuild, that might not be wise.
The new front office might buck the trend, but what we’ve seen from the Knicks over the years is that wisdom is often in short supply.