Kevin Durant’s first opportunity at unrestricted free agency looms over the Thunder this offseason. The chances of losing one of the NBA’s best players for nothing is very real, especially with so many teams holding salary cap space thanks to the league’s new TV deal.
The Durant situation is complicated by Oklahoma City’s own cap space issues. Thanks to moves such as matching a maximum contract offer on backup center Enes Kanter last offseason, the Thunder do not have the ability to really replace Durant even if he leaves. That makes for one of the most high-stakes offseasons in the NBA.
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Let’s take a look at their free agents, salary cap space and assets for this summer before breaking down what needs to be done.
Potential free agents: Kevin Durant (unrestricted), Dion Waiters (restricted), Randy Foye (unrestricted), Anthony Morrow (non-guaranteed) and Nazr Mohammed (unrestricted).
Likely 2016 cap space: None
Realistic maximum 2016 cap space (using $92m estimate): $25 million
2016 NBA Draft assets: No first-round pick (owed to Philadelphia via Cleveland and Denver) or second round pick (traded to Denver).
Durant is the alpha and the omega of Oklahoma City’s off-season. The Thunder will offer the former MVP whatever contract he wants and pray he chooses to return, even on a one year deal with a player option to time his free agency with Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka.
The Thunder have so much committed in salary and roster space that it would take Durant leaving and other major moves to have the ability to sign free agents for more than the mid-level exception.
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Waiters will be a restricted free agent with a lucrative qualifying offer because he was the No. 4 overall pick in the 2012 NBA Draft, but general manager Sam Presti will likely look to retain the enigmatic shooting guard because the team gave up a first round choice to acquire him a little over a year ago. The only other free agents they have are midseason acquisitions Foye and Mohammed. Morrow’s low salary makes the sharpshooter worth retaining on his non-guaranteed contract.
This offseason will also be the time for extension negotiations with starting center Steven Adams. The Thunder have not gone through this process with a starter since Serge Ibaka in 2012, and the league's financial landscape has changed dramatically in those years. Another salary cap increase is coming in 2017, and there will be many teams looking to spend big to steal away restricted free agents. Adams only needs to look as far as his backup, since Enes Kanter was able to secure an offer sheet from the Trail Blazers starting at his maximum salary in a comparatively tame offseason.
The Thunder could also come to an extension agreement with swingman Andre Roberson, but those stakes are somewhat different since he has not proven his value to the degree Adams has thus far. Still, Roberson is a favorite of the front office and could be kept at a reasonable rate because his offensive issues will keep his value down.
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One thing to keep an eye on for the Thunder’s summer is the luxury tax. If Durant stays and takes his maximum for the 2016-17 season, with the current estimate Oklahoma City will only have about $16 million under the tax for Waiters and potentially two more roster spots. They certainly could and probably would pay the tax for a second time if necessary, but the line being such a close call makes it a more interesting proposition, as it was for Miami this season.
The Heat know what it is like when your superstar free agent hits the open market. They will will be one of the teams most aggressively pursuing Durant this summer. The Thunder know their offseason only can be a true success if they can win that bidding war.