Kevin Durant could join the Warriors this summer. That is possible because, in the 2016 NBA offseason, almost anything is possible. The $1 billion in salary cap space and the lack of bad long-term contracts around the league open doors that would have been inconceivable in almost any other year.
The notion of Durant, the offseason’s top free agent, joining the Warriors, the NBA’s top team, is simple enough, as Sporting News has explained in the past. The notion of Durant joining the other foremost Western Conference power, however, is more complicated and perhaps more interesting.
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The Spurs had a perfect July 2015. They added LaMarcus Aldridge while retaining almost every key piece from their 2014-15 roster. The 2016 cap spike makes it theoretically possible to pull something close to a double by getting the best free agent yet again without losing much of what makes the team so amazing.
Durant, for his part, has shown admiration for the Spurs franchise that his Thunder are playing now in the Western Conference semifinals, with the series tied 1-1. In particular, he has gushed over the man in charge in San Antonio.
“Gregg Popovich, man, no matter how many moving parts they have on their team, he stays consistent with what he does,” Durant said recently, via CBS Sports. “Having a really good coach is probably the most important thing in this league. You can have all the great players you want but you have to have someone to orchestrate it. That's what they have, a great coach that can put them in positions to utilize all their individual strengths and make them come together as a team. He's the guy who's been here for the longest, having someone like that to orchestrate what you do obviously helps.”
Here we will examine how the Spurs, from a salary cap perspective, can add Durant. It won’t be easy. The assumptions will be that Durant will take no less than his maximum salary for the 2016-17 season and the Thunder will not facilitate the move by agreeing to a sign-and-trade. (Note: Basketball Insiders’ databases were used for some of the salary information in this article.)
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Relaxing either of those assumptions would make this easier and are possible but unlikely. Durant deserves to get paid, and the Thunder are not going to be happy about sending him to one of their biggest rivals.
The NBA as a whole probably would not be happy. Durant on the Spurs would be a scary image for any team hoping to compete for a championship, even the Warriors. That’s especially true when you factor in all the Spurs could keep in the process.
The centerpiece
The Spurs only have one truly immovable long-term player, Kawhi Leonard. The two-time Defensive Player of the Year and likely top-five finisher in this year’s MVP voting is 24, still getting better and on one of the league’s most favorable contracts, with three years and $56.6 million plus a $21.3 million player option remaining. Using the $92 million cap estimate, here is the foundation for the Spurs:
Yes, that $43 million in additional money sounds like a lot, but it can go relatively quickly with other contracts on the books.
The core
The Spurs have two other players who would be difficult to leave off. LaMarcus Aldridge was the team’s biggest free agent recruit in the Popovich era, and it would be terrible form to move him this quickly to open up space for Durant. Furthermore, Aldridge worked hard to fit in with the Spurs, so there are not any personality issues they can use as cover.
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Tony Parker is Spurs royalty like Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili, but despite being in his 15th NBA season, he is substantially younger and still has two more seasons under contract. It would be possible that San Antonio would try to trade him because his $14.5 million would open up some serious depth, but that also would be opposed to the Spurs way, which is a major draw if Durant were to consider the Spurs.
The old-timers
Last summer, both Duncan and Ginobili decided to return and did so on discounted deals that played a major part in their summer being such a big success. Both players agreed to one-year contracts with a second-year player option. Obviously the Spurs would love to have them back next season, and those low salaries make it feasible to retain them and still add Durant.
The challenge in this scenario comes if either wants to come back but wants more money than their option. Since the Spurs have full Bird rights on both long-time players, either declining their player option moves their cap hold from a 7.5 percent raise on their 2015-16 salary to a 90 percent increase on that same number. In that case, the Spurs would need to come to an agreement quickly since presumably either would get less than that full 190 percent hold.
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However, these are Duncan and Ginobili, two Spurs icons who always have been willing to sacrifice for the team. Duncan is 40, and Ginobili will be 39 in July. They do not want to play for another team. The more likely scenario, even if it seems unfair, is that they would be willing to play for less than their previous salary, possibly as little as the veteran’s minimum or the room mid-level exception, if they were adding Durant. In those cases, the Spurs actually could renounce their Bird rights to free up even more cap space.
The young guys
San Antonio’s depth looks better in this hypothetical because of the young talent they have at team-friendly numbers for 2016-17. Jonathon Simmons, Kyle Anderson and Boban Marjanovic would take up a combined $3.57 million on the books, which is less than $2 million over the roster holds for empty spots.
Marjanovic is a restricted free agent this summer and will get more than his moderate hold, but that does not affect the Durant calculations until they match. Furthermore, Marjanovic qualifies for the Gilbert Arenas provision, which means he cannot sign an offer sheet with a 2016-17 salary of more than $5.628 million.
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The Spurs also have their own 2016 first round selection and the rights to two recent draft picks: Nikola Milutinov from 2015 and Livio Jean-Charles in 2013. Both would be unlikely parts of this circumstance but are worth mentioning as potential higher-talent roster fillers, if desired. Bringing either over would cost slight cap space, which is becoming precious at this stage.
The veterans
Having such a deep roster helps the Spurs even in this scenario but it does force some truly challenging decisions. Assuming Aldridge gets a place on the team, another spot likely comes down to Parker vs. Danny Green, a truly brutal choice considering their roles and significance to the organization. What complicates matters further is that Green makes about $4.5 million less than Parker in 2016-17, and that flexibility makes retaining other talent significantly easier.
The other two veterans under contract are Boris Diaw and Patty Mills. Diaw’s $7 million 2016-17 salary is only partially guaranteed for now, but he would be desirable for other teams at his salary, so San Antonio could trade him if needed. Losing Diaw would be a blow to the team’s recent chemistry and identity, but the talent addition of Durant would justify it.
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Mills will make just over $3.5 million next season and should step into a larger role as Parker ages. Plus, the Spurs will have full Bird rights on Mills when he becomes a free agent next summer, so they can spend on him in 2017 after adding top-level talent again in 2016. That all makes Mills very much worth keeping.
The most plausible scenario
If Durant decided to join the Spurs, there are a series of different moves they could make to clear the space. Changes would be required, as would sacrifices on the parts of veterans who want to stay with the franchise. The Spurs’ toughest choice is Parker or Green, with one likely headed out in a trade with little immediate return because of their lack of flexibility to take on salary.
For this exercise, the Spurs’ loyalty to their legends is being considered. Green has been a crucial player in San Antonio’s recent success, but Parker has been a foundational piece for 15 seasons and four championships.
Here is what the roster would look like to fit the $92 million salary cap projection:
Three notes on these projections:
• While Ginobili is not listed above, if he comes back and accepts a veteran’s minimum contract or room mid-level exception like last summer, the hole in the backcourt immediately would be filled.
• The same is true for David West, the veteran power forward who took a minimum contract last offseason because he wanted to join the Spurs and could do the same again this offseason.
• The Spurs would have too little remaining to allow Duncan to use his player option, so he would have to decline that and agree to take whatever cash was left under the salary cap.
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What is remarkable about that Spurs team is how deep they are. The only weak spot is shooting guard — which might become Durant’s position often, scarily enough — and a Ginobili return rectifies that. They would be two-deep at center and point guard with one of the best forward rotations in the history of the league.
While it would force some difficult and distinctly un-Spursy decisions, Durant heading to San Antonio would create a simply monstrous team.