Kevin Durant has a league-shifting decision in front of him, the result of an NBA MVP hitting the open market while still in his prime. These situations do not come along very often, and they mean a change of zip code even less frequently — LeBron James being the only MVP in the past 30 years to leave his team in free agency.
Durant could take that route. Nearly everyone will be pursuing the Thunder superstar this summer, with the NBA’s new television deal spiking the salary cap and giving even the league’s best teams enough space to add a star. He could join the already-unstoppable Warriors or become the cornerstone of the league’s most popular franchise, the star-starved Lakers. However, the path of least resistance and most money is simple: Durant could sign a one-year contract with a player option for a second season to stay in Oklahoma City.
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Under current NBA salary rules, a player’s maximum contract varies based on NBA experience. With nine years in the league, Durant will be eligible for the middle tier this summer — 30% of the salary cap, which still comes in at a large amount thanks to the cap spike. However, like LaMarcus Aldridge could have last summer, the 2013-14 NBA MVP can secure a substantially larger contract by playing out his 10th NBA season to reach the 35% tier. That motivation strengthens because of the expectation that the salary cap will substantially increase again in 2017 — and the discussion of larger max contracts under a renegotiated Collective Bargaining Agreement that could take effect next summer.
Other pivotal aspects of Durant’s decision buttress the case for agreeing to the one-year-with-an-option contract, known as a 1+1. Unlike Aldridge, the downside risk of KD not securing a maximum contract if he waits a year is minimal. Recovering so well from last season’s foot issues has taken most of the injury stigma off him, and teams would be willing to pay Durant anyway considering his immense talent and the fact that he would still only be 28 years old in July 2017. Durant's remarkable scoring efficiency — he has hovered around 50 percent from the field, 40 percent on 3-pointers and 90 percent from the line in each of the past five seasons — should age well, and this season ranks among his best.
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Then there is that new CBA. Players and owners have the option to end the current CBA next season, with the likelihood being that the players’ union decides to break the agreement. National Basketball Players Association executive director Michele Roberts already has made larger maximum contracts an issue, and Durant could be a major beneficiary. Paralleling NBPA president Chris Paul, Durant could take advantage of increased maximum contracts, increased contract length or a more favorable split of basketball income for the players, which only would increase the salary cap.
The present structure of the league itself also pushes the former MVP to consider a one-year contract. Incredibly uncertain but compelling teams in potentially desirable cities, such as the Lakers and Knicks, will still be champing at the bit for Durant in 2017, but he should have a much better idea of how good their young talent will be and what other pieces they can put around him. If he is looking for a more put-together franchise, the Clippers’ situation will clarify with both Blake Griffin and Chris Paul hitting free agency that summer, and Derrick Rose will be off the books in Chicago. With one exception (we will get to that soon), Oklahoma City would be the best possible team for Durant to play on a single-year contract if his goal is winning a championship.
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Arguably the most important argument for Durant specifically to agree to a 1+1 is that it lines up free agency for him, Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka. Since any one of them leaving would make it tough for the Thunder to be contenders even with the other two, that timeline allows each of them the opportunity to know the full situation before deciding. Waiting also gives Durant a much easier out from a PR perspective since it would be much easier to explain off leaving if Westbrook or Ibaka exits as well. Durant already faces scrutiny about leaving an elite team that he helped build.
The same forces that make signing a 1+1 with the Thunder logical also make a long-term deal with OKC this summer imprudent. Delaying the big commitment has more financial upside than risk for a player of Durant’s caliber and committing to an unclear core tips the balance even further.
The only reason for Durant to sign a long-term deal this offseason, then, is to join a team that would not be able to bring him in next year. That team happens to be the defending NBA champions. The Warriors have a special opportunity to sign Durant this summer that likely vaporizes if and when they re-sign Harrison Barnes and Festus Ezeli. The Warriors take veterans Andrew Bogut, Andre Iguodala and Shaun Livingston off the books in 2017, and MVP point guard Stephen Curry has a relatively small salary cap hold as he hits free agency. However, unless the salary cap takes a bigger-than-expected leap next year, this summer makes things much easier to bring on Durant.
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Even Durant’s hometown Wizards, who have set themselves up for a run at him this summer, likely would have enough salary cap room in 2017, with a little maneuvering, to squeeze him in a year later.
That distills Durant’s summer to two viable choices: another season in Oklahoma City, which sets him up to do this all over again next year; or joining the best team in the NBA.