Since John Calipari took over as Kentucky head coach ahead of the 2009-10 season, the program has produced 21 one-and-done prospects through eight drafts ranging from future All-Stars to disappointing flame outs (Someone somewhere still resides on James Young Island).
That’s almost three per year! And far more than any other program in that time frame.
Once just the Horse Capital of the World, Lexington is now also the most prominent one-year pit stop — or an odd form of one-year purgatory depending on how you feel about forced amateurism — for future NBA players.
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Most of these one-and-dones followed a similar trajectory from consensus five-star high school recruit to lottery pick with a smattering falling into the latter part of the first round. In fact, only one of Calipari’s 21 one-and-dones entered his freshman season as a four-star prospect.
Bucks point guard Eric Bledsoe was the No. 68 recruit in the class of 2009, according to the 247Sports Composite, before vaulting into the top 20 on draft night. Now, another former four-star may be set to do the same.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was ranked No. 31 in the high school class of 2017, behind six of his future teammates, and while he currently sits at No. 24 in our 2018 NBA Draft prospect rankings, he could end up as the Wildcats’ best pro prospect before the season’s up.
Before even diving into the film, it’s worth noting how the numbers might help paint the portrait of a future NBA player. According to KenPom’s comparisons, which match players across time based on size and advanced statistics, the 19-year-old’s freshman season lines up alongside current pros Evan Turner and Jrue Holiday as well as top-20 prospect De’Anthony Melton. His raw box score stats also yield promising results.
Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 12.1 points, 4.4 assists, 3.7 rebounds and 1.8 steals per contest this season. A collection of similarly productive freshmen — 34 in total — from the last 25 seasons features all-timers like Allen Iverson, Chris Paul and Jason Kidd; talented youngsters like Dejounte Murray, Dennis Smith Jr. and Lonzo Ball; and a smattering of other pros, including Mike Bibby, Marcus Smart and Rodney Stuckey.
Obviously none of the above necessarily represent direct comparisons for Gilgeous-Alexander, but the fact that a rather large group of statistically similar college players have turned out to be competent professionals is encouraging.
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At 6-6, Gilgeous-Alexander straddles the line between point and off guard. He starts at point for the Wildcats nowadays, but plays plenty of minutes in lineups alongside former starter and fellow freshman Quade Green. In the NBA, his versatility should be a positive. Still, whether he does the bulk of the ball-handling or works as a secondary creator will define much of his role.
At Kentucky, he’s often the team’s primary initiator. Few other players on the roster can reliably create their own offense. Gilgeous-Alexander at least generates a semblance of it. Calipari seems content to run plenty of high ball screens for him, trusting his decision-making despite a 19.5 percent turnover rate.
In these spots, Gilgeous-Alexander is at his best getting to the rim where a wild 37.9 percent of his halfcourt shots have taken place this season, per Hoop-Math. His 3.2 halfcourt attempts at the rim per 40 minutes lags behind higher volume attackers like Collin Sexton and Trae Young, but is equal to what Smith accomplished last season for North Carolina State.
His 60.0 percent conversion rate is similar as well. But, where Smith occasionally resembled Russell Westbrook lite crashing through the lane for ferocious dunks, Gilgeous-Alexander operates like a late career Andre Miller, lacking the athleticism to elevate in traffic and relying on craft to score at the basket.
The Kentucky freshman excels playing at his own pace. He flashes nice hesitation moves to create just enough space to get by his defender en route to the rim. As he adds strength, his initial bursts may quicken, but for now, his length allows him to keep the ball away from outstretched arms:
Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging just 0.848 points per possession (66th percentile) scoring out of the pick-and-roll, per Synergy. His struggles in large part trace back to the lack of a reliable pull-up jumper that would manipulate defensive coverage. His mechanics off the bounce are funky with a release pushed out in front of his face and mediocre lower body balance. So far, he’s converted just 28.9 percent of such attempts, per Synergy.
There are a few positive indicators to suggest he might be able to develop a more threatening jumper in time. If not on the move, then at least in spot-up situations. His mechanics from a standstill are more consistent, translating to better results.
This season, he’s made 42.3 percent of an admittedly meager 26 3-point attempts, is shooting 82.4 percent from the foul line and ranks in the 98th percentile nationally on catch-and-shoots, per Synergy. He also shot well from the foul line (88.7 percent) and behind the arc (45.0 percent) during his final season in the Nike EYBL, per DraftExpress. Perhaps repetition and practice will culminate in more voluminous results long-term.
As it is for so many young prospects, Gilgeous-Alexander’s jumper will determine a lot with regard to his position and production. His passing and court vision are sufficient, especially when throwing hit-ahead passes in transition, and his scoring at the rim should translate even without added athleticism.
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If he can improve as a shooter off the bounce, though, he has more equity as a traditional point guard. If not — and if his spot-up results hold over a larger sample — he’ll be relegated to playing alongside a primary initiator one way or another.
As a defender, any positional questions will be a positive. With a 7-foot wingspan, quick feet and good instincts, Gilgeous-Alexander can guard a variety of spots. Tune into a Kentucky game and you might catch him defending 5-11 lightning bug point guard Tremont Waters or 6-7 wing Deng Adel. He’ll need to add strength to deal with the size of NBA opponents, but the outlines for a quality defender are there.
In the box score, the 19-year-old averages 2.3 steals per 40 minutes with a 3.5 percent steal rate, acting as a bright spot of turnover creation for a defense that could sorely use more of it.
In the past, questions about Gilgeous-Alexander’s position may have proved damning to his draft stock. Now, they’re a boon. Still, figuring out his NBA role will be complicated. How much can he handle the ball? If he isn’t handling it, can he be a dangerous enough spot-up threat? Where is he best defensively? All of these questions will shape his career trajectory.
The good news is such a malleable player can succeed in a variety of situations. A pair of Eastern Conference teams projected to pick in the late teens might be interested.
If the Sixers trust his spot-up shooting, pairing Gilgeous-Alexander with Ben Simmons could be an intriguing option in Philadelphia. In the same vein, his length fits the profile for what the Bucks have looked for in recent seasons. Speculating further on teams in the 20s may not be very useful given he likely wouldn’t have an appreciable, immediate role on those rosters.
Given we’re still far away from June, much could change in the coming months, but so far Gilgeous-Alexander is playing his way into the conversation to be the third nominal point guard to come off the board behind Young and Sexton. Although he didn’t come to Lexington with the high school pedigree of some of his classmates and those who came before him, the result on draft night could still be the same.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are sourced from Sports-Reference and current as of Jan. 24.