Will winner of Joel Embiid vs. Nikola Jokic decide the 2022 NBA MVP?

Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic square off on Monday in a matchup of the two leading MVP candidates. With Giannis Antetokounmpo also in the mix, the 2022 NBA MVP race is shaping up to be one of the closest calls in recent history.

Tight MVP races come down to far more than simply counting stats. Narratives drive conversations which in turn steer voters down preferred paths. Did a team vastly outperform expectations? Did a player carry a team through a series of bad injuries? Did a team finish so far out in front that the "best player on the best team" argument becomes the trump card?

When Embiid and Jokic take the floor on Monday, another narrative comes into focus: head-to-head records. Naturally, one might presume that head-to-head performance tips the scales when all else is equal. 

To get a better sense of whether these head-to-head matchups actually factor in, I examined the closest 15 MVP races since the NBA-ABA merger in 1976 as determined by the difference between first and second-place votes. 

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Joel Embiid vs. Nikola Jokic record

This is the first meeting of the season between the two centers as Embiid missed the first game between the 76ers and Nuggets back in November. The 76ers won that game even without Embiid, overcoming 30 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists from Jokic.

Not only did we miss out on Embiid vs. Jokic in November, we've missed out on them altogether in recent years. Thanks to a run of ill-timed injuries or rest, Monday will mark their first meeting since Dec. 2019. Embiid owns a 4-1 head-to-head record in the personal series.

Joel Embiid vs. Nikola Jokic stats

Both Embiid and Jokic are putting up MVP-worthy numbers. Embiid is in a tight race with LeBron James, Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant for the scoring title while Jokic is threatening to break the single-season record for Player Efficiency Rating.

Head-to-head record in closest MVP races

With the race for the MVP seemingly neck and neck, it's tempting to argue that Monday's outcome could sway voters and serve as a tiebreaker of sorts. I'm not here to tell you that should or will happen.

But what I can do is use history to illuminate just how important these head-to-head encounters are when it comes to settling the score on tight races.

Here are the 15 closest races since the 1976 NBA/ABA merger along with how the winner fared head-to-head against the runner-up. All MVP voting results can be found at Basketball-Reference.com. For the purposes of this exercise, "runner-up" refers to the player who finished with the second-most first-place votes.

So what's the biggest takeaway?

Head-to-head records don't matter... or at least, they haven't historically. Add it all up and MVP winners have a 22-22 head-to-head record against the player who finished with the second-most first-place votes. Of the 15 tightest races, the MVP "won" the head-to-head series just five times.

While we might think voters could lean one way due to how one specific matchup played out, history suggests that's not the case.

Of course, tight MVP races often feature more than two deserving candidates. Take, for instance, 2006. Steve Nash won his second MVP but finished with fewer than half of the first-place votes. Five different players received at least 14 first-place votes and Kobe Bryant finished in fourth despite receiving the second-most first-place votes.

How do you begin to parse out head-to-head records when there are three or more worthy candidates?  That's a discussion for another day.

Odds to win 2022 NBA MVP

Both Embiid and Jokic have strong cases to win the MVP. And with four weeks left, there's still plenty of basketball to dictate how the race shakes out. Seemingly every night, one of them throws up a jaw-dropping performance that momentarily changes the tide only for the other to come right back with a vintage performance of their own.

Similarly, Antetokounmpo figures to receive serious consideration and might even come out on top when all is said and done. 

Here is how the current odds look heading into the week.

(As of March 13, 2022)