The Celtics took a risk in trading the No. 1 pick in the 2017 NBA Draft to the Sixers. Rather than selecting Markelle Fultz, who was and still should be regarded as the best long-term prospect in the class, they chose to move down two spots to select Jayson Tatum out of Duke. Tatum received some buzz as a potential No. 1 pick throughout his freshman season, but there were enough concerns about his game for him to be considered a notch below Fultz and Lonzo Ball.
Whatever those concerns were, they now look foolish. While Ben Simmons has distanced himself from his fellow rookies, Tatum has emerged as a meaningful contributor on one of the best teams in the NBA at the age of 19. In addition to his 13.9 points per game, which he’s getting on 49.7 percent shooting from the field and 46.0 percent shoot from the perimeter, the Celtics have outscored opponents by a total of 69 points with Tatum on the court. He is ahead of all but one rookie with that mark, including Simmons (plus-45).
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It’s entirely possible Tatum ends up being the third-best player in the 2017 NBA Draft when it’s all said and done, but it’s already clear what kind of NBA player he is going to be. The same can’t necessarily be said for Fultz, who has been dealing with a shoulder injury that has limited him to a total of 76 minutes played, and Ball, whose inconsistencies as a scorer have prevented him from making the immediate impact many expected from him.
To figure out what kind of player Tatum is right now and what he has the potential to become, let’s take a closer look at what he’s been able to accomplish on both ends of the court in the first 18 games of his NBA career.
A legitimate spot-up threat
Tatum made a name for himself at Duke as an isolation scorer. Those plays made up 22.8 percent of his offense on the season, and he averaged 0.88 points per isolation possession, a good enough rate for him to rank in the 70th percentile. At 6-8 with a 6-11 wingspan, he showcased the ability to take bigger defenders off the dribble and attack smaller defenders in the post, giving him the type of skill set NBA teams are looking for in a young wing to have an answer against switch-heavy defensive schemes.
Despite those numbers, only 10.1 percent of Tatum’s offense with the Celtics has come in isolation. (The Celtics, for what it’s worth, finished near the bottom of the NBA in isolation scoring as a team last season. Even Kyrie Irving is isolating less under Brad Stevens). Instead, Tatum has done far more of his damage out of spot-ups, where he has scored 33.5 percent of his points.
It’s helped him establish chemistry with Irving, Marcus Smart and Terry Rozier in particular, a trio of guards who lead the Celtics in drives per game. When one of them is able to collapse the defense off the dribble, Tatum gives them the option of kicking it out to someone currently making 52.8 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts.
Tatum is unlikely to make over half of his catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts for the entire season — only Pau Gasol and Brian Roberts reached that mark on a limited sample size last season — but he is already proving himself to be a reliable threat from the perimeter, which is surprising based on how streaky of an outside shooter he was in college.
Tatum isn’t strictly a 3-point shooter in those situations. He looks equally comfortable getting his defender up in the air and taking one dribble toward the basket for a midrange pull-up, although he isn’t making them at a high rate yet.
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He has also showcased the ability to get to the basket and finish in a variety of ways — with his right hand, left hand or off the wrong foot. Being able to mix it up off the dribble will prevent teams from containing him by simply running him off the line as they start to pay him more respect as a spot-up shooter.
The combination of Tatum’s size and shooting gives the Celtics the flexibility of using him in a variety of ways. With 37.0 percent of his minutes coming at power forward so far this season, Tatum can play the role of the screener in pick-and-rolls, where he likes to pop to the perimeter rather than roll to the basket. From there, he can either take the 3-pointer if the defense sags off him or turn it into an isolation possession against slower-footed power forwards.
While Tatum hasn’t been an efficient isolation scorer in the NBA — 0.83 points per possession to rank in the 38.8 percentile — it’s a smart way for him to put his 1-on-1 skills to the test. If he can develop into an elite 3-point shooter who can consistently exploit mismatches in isolation, it would give him all the tools he needs to thrive offensively in today’s NBA.
Tatum’s shooting sets him up well in transition as well, where he has scored 19.8 percent of his points on the season. He’s not necessarily the type to grab a defensive rebound and turn it into quick points like we’ve seen with Simmons, but he can fill the lane for strong finishes at the rim and venture out to the 3-point line to provide spacing for ball handlers.
It’s not like the Celtics need him to push the ball himself in transition with Irving, Smart, Rozier and Al Horford on the roster anyway. As long as one of them is on the court, Tatum can take off following missed shots or turnovers knowing the ball is in good hands.
For someone who had the reputation of being a ball stopper and a midrange scorer coming out of college, Tatum has already undergone a tremendous transformation. Whereas close to 40.0 percent of his field goal attempts in the halfcourt were midrange jump shots at Duke, 69.3 percent of his field goal attempts have been at the rim or the 3-point line in a Celtics uniform. Even if this was his full potential as an offensive player, it would make him an incredibly valuable wing because of how well he complements ball dominant players such as Irving.
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A decent example in that regard is Otto Porter Jr., the third piece of Washington’s puzzle, who signed a max extension with the Wizards in the offseason. Tatum already compares well to Porter as a knockdown shooter who can space the floor in transition and the half court. If he can build on his already mature offensive game by becoming a versatile defender, he has the potential to develop into one of the better 3-and-D wings in the league.
A disruptive defender
The assignment of guarding the opposing team’s best perimeter player usually goes to Jaylen Brown or Marcus Smart, leaving Tatum to match up with the likes of Andre Roberson, Kyle Anderson, Norman Powell and Malcolm Brogdon at the start of games. Tatum shines as a disruptor when he’s in those positions, using his long wingspan to pick off cross-court passes and protect the rim as a help defender. In addition to the 18 steals and 25 deflections he’s recorded in 18 games, Tatum has blocked 15 shots and held opponents to 60.5 percent shooting at the rim.
While none of those numbers are necessarily a direct indicator of good defense, they speak to the sort of value Tatum provides. Even if he can make the passer or shooter hesitate for a split because of his length, it can be the difference between an uncontested shot and a contested shot. There have been times where he sticks to his defender too long and gives up a high-percentage look — an incredibly fine line against teams that can space the floor out to the 3-point line with at least four shooters — but the good has far outweighed the bad thus far.
Although the Celtics don’t switch across the board as much on defense as other teams in the league, Tatum has had an opportunity to showcase his versatility against some elite scorers.
In the video below, Tatum does a good job of using his length to prevent Carmelo Anthony from pulling-up when he faces-up to the basket, doing so without putting himself in jeopardy of committing a foul. He then gets his body in front of Anthony and forces him into a tough fadeaway before being called for a questionable shooting foul.
It’s a similar case on this possession. Open 3-point attempt by Tony Snell aside, Tatum fights for positioning against Giannis Antetokounmpo in the post, disrupts Antetokounmpo’s rhythm by swiping at the ball with his long arms and takes away the middle of the floor to force him baseline into Horford’s help defense. It’s the sort of attention to detail rarely seen from rookies this early into the season.
Where Tatum does struggle on defense isn’t anything new. He has the speed and athleticism to keep up with smaller players on switches, but he is susceptible to being taken off the dribble in isolation because he isn’t always in the right stance.
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The encouraging news is that’s something he should be able to improve in time. Almost every rookie looks lost on defense, especially when they get put under a spotlight against the Kevin Durants and DeMar DeRozans of the league, so the fact that Tatum hasn’t been a liability on the best defensive team in the league speaks to how much further along he is than expected.
Plus, there aren’t many backcourt players with his size and athleticism. In addition to his ability to read the game at a high level, it helps Tatum make up for some of the mistakes he should be able to iron out as he gains more experience.
What to watch for next
Tatum isn’t going to continue making 46.0 percent of his 3-point attempts considering only three rookies in NBA history have ever made 45.0 percent of their 3-pointers on at least two attempts per game. And yet, all that matter is he continues to shoot them. Tatum’s 3-point shooting was pegged as his swing skill leading into the NBA Draft. Seeing as he already looks comfortable taking and making them, it’s a promising sign for his future.
Outside of his 3-point shooting, it will be interesting to see what Tatum is capable of as he looks to expand his game. He’s already shown some potential as a scorer in the pick-and-roll and isolation. Becoming more comfortable in either of those areas within the confines of Stevens’ system would therefore raise his ceiling considerably because it would give him the tools to be a secondary or tertiary playmaker. If he can then show some progression as a facilitator, it would be the icing on the cake as far as his long-term development goes.
As is the case with Simmons, Tatum’s defense will be worth monitoring as the season progresses. Not having to carry as big of an offensive load certainly works in his favor — Tatum is more of a specialist now rather than a go-to scorer like he was in college — but effort will go a long way in determining how valuable he is on that end of the floor. If he continues to play with the same intensity, it’ll help the Celtics maintain their position at the top of the NBA in defensive efficiency.
All in all, Tatum’s time with the Celtics couldn’t have gotten off to a better start. He’s already making an impact on both ends, doing so without monopolizing the ball in ways scouts were concerned about in the lead-up to the NBA Draft. His baseline seems to be a 3-and-D wing who won’t have any problem fitting in alongside high usage players, which gives him a role on the Celtics right now as they look to compete in the Eastern Conference.
Given how much more he can improve as an offensive and defensive player, his ceiling sets him up well to run the show when Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward and Al Horford are no longer the faces of the franchise.
