Japan's journey at the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup concludes with its most important game of the tournament.
After rallying to victory against Venezuela, Japan is set for a crucial game against Cape Verde in its Classification Round finale on Saturday, Sept. 2, at 7:10 a.m. ET. On the line for Japan is a berth at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.
Japan is a heavy favorite to earn one of the biggest wins in the history of its national team program. The Sporting News has you covered with odds, picks and a prediction for the matchup below.
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Japan vs Cape Verde odds
Japan enters Saturday's game as an 8.5-point favorite over Cape Verde.
Japan is riding the momentum of a thrilling win over Venezuela in which it used a fourth-quarter rally to earn the victory. Cape Verde, which earned its first-ever World Cup win earlier in the week, is looking to bounce back after a big loss to Finland.
Take a look at the spread, over/under and moneyline for Japan vs Cape Verde, courtesy of BetMGM:
| Team | Spread | Total Points | Moneyline |
| Japan | -8.5 (-120) | o161.5 (-120) | -375 |
| Cape Verde | +8.5 (-105) | u161.5 (-105) | +290 |
Japan vs Cape Verde prediction
Our pick: Japan -8.5
Basketball is a game of runs and momentum, and Japan enters Saturday's game with plenty of momentum.
Thanks to the heroics of Makoto Hiejima, Japan earned a thrilling victory over Venezuela. Hiejima scored 17 of his 23 points in the fourth quarter as Japan rallied from 15-point deficit to earn a nine-point win.
Japan has had a unique home-court advantage throughout the tournament, with the crowd at Okinawa Arena fueling multiple comeback performances.
Cape Verde, which relies heavily on 7-3 center Edy Tavares, has largely struggled in the tournament outside of a win over Venezuela. With respect to common opponents, Cape Verde suffered a 23-point loss to the same Finland team that Japan defeated by 10.
And while Cape Verde fared similarly against Venezuela, the difference in this game will stem from Japan's momentum and the high stakes that are tied to the matchup.
Biggest storyline: Japan controls its own destiny
For Japan, the message is simple: win and you're in.
As outlined by FIBA, Japan is the only team that has its destiny in its hands. Thanks to its thrilling wins over Finland and Venezuela, Japan is now in a position to punch its ticket to the Paris 2024 Olympic Games with a win over Cape Verde.
With an opportunity to qualify for its eighth Olympic appearance, Japan — and its home crowd — will be extra motivated against Cape Verde.
PARIS OLYMPICS: How FIBA World Cup impacts automatic bids for 2024
Japan Classification Round group
Japan is competing in Group O in the Classification Round of the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup. The other countries in Group O are Cape Verde, Venezuela and Finland.
As results from the first Group Phase carry over to the Classification Round, Japan currently sits atop Group O after its win over Venezuela. Here is a look at the updated Group O standings.
| Country | Record | Points | |
| 1. | Japan | 2-2 | 6 |
| 2. | Finland | 1-3 | 5 |
| 3. | Cape Verde | 1-3 | 5 |
| 4. | Venezuela | 0-4 | 4 |
