Needing a miracle to become the second team in NBA history to win the Finals after trailing 3-1, the Heat are looking for all the help they can get to win three straight against the top-seeded Nuggets. Ahead of Game 5 on Monday night, backcourt piece Tyler Herro is expected to make his return after suffering two broken bones in his right hand in the first round.
While Herro led the Heat in minutes per game during the regular season (34.9), chances are we won't see the Kentucky product log 30-plus minutes in his first back in nearly two months. That said, Herro wouldn't return to the floor if he couldn't positively impact the Heat, and his ability to create off the dribble could be sufficient enough to make Game 5 a relatively competitive contest after consecutive double-digit defeats.
How does Herro's return impact the prop betting market? Below, we'll take a look at four props listed on BetMGM that we think have a chance of coming through with Herro back on the hardwood.
NUGGETS-HEAT GAME 5 BETTING:
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Tyler Herro and Miami Heat Player Prop Picks for Game 5 of the 2023 NBA Finals
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, an Authorized Gaming Operator of the NBA. Click HERE to sign up!
Tyler Herro OVER 6.5 points (-125)
While there's a good deal of uncertainty pertaining to Herro's usage and effectiveness in his first game since April 16, we'll take a chance on the guard scoring seven-plus points at -125.
Herro sported an efficient 53.0 effective field goal percentage with a true shooting percentage of 56.6 percent in the regular season on high volume, so with his prop sitting at an attainable 6.5, we'll buy low on a solid first game back from last season's Sixth Man of the Year.
Duncan Robinson UNDER 7.5 points (-130)
With Herro getting more run in his return, expect Robinson's role to decrease, resulting in the wing going UNDER his point total of 7.5. There's a chance we'll see Herro and Robinson overlap their minutes, but with both players struggling on the defensive end, we think there's a higher probability Robinson's minutes see a sharp decline tonight.
Robinson was effectively out of Miami's rotation for the stretch run of the regular season and is averaging just 19.4 minutes per game in the Finals. If that number ticks down to 15 minutes tonight, Robinson likely ends his night scoring fewer than eight points. Robinson's point total of 7.5 was the same total it closed at in Game 4, so we'll take advantage of the market failing to shift with Herro back in the fold.
Jimmy Butler UNDER 26.5 points (-125)
Along with Butler going UNDER 26.5 points in three of four games this series, Herro's ability to create off the dribble could lead to Butler attempting fewer shots than normal tonight. Butler's employed a passive offensive style in the Finals, with Aaron Gordon's length and physicality disrupting the Eastern Conference Finals MVP.
Butler hasn't been able to get to the charity stripe at the same rate he did in the prior rounds, and with the team's third-leading scoring in the regular season back in the fold, we think Butler goes UNDER 26.5 points for the fourth time in five games.
Tyler Herro OVER 1.5 rebounds (-120)
Herro grabbed 5.4 rebounds per game in the regular season, and although he's unlikely to play 34.9 minutes as he did in the regular season, he should garner enough rebounding opportunities to grab two-plus boards. In 67 regular season contests, Herro saw 8.9 rebounding chances per game, and even if he logs a total of 15 minutes, we think he finds a way to get his hands on two-plus missed shots.
