The Grizzlies committed to Marc Gasol last summer. Now they must decide how to build around the 31-year-old center.
However, with substantial salary cap flexibility for the first time in years, Memphis has a chance to modernize its roster and address the issues facing it, from shooting to aging and injury. That approach begins with a major decision on free agent Mike Conley, the best point guard on the market.
Let’s take a look at their free agents, salary cap space and assets for this summer before breaking down what needs to be done.
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Potential free agents: Mike Conley (unrestricted), Matt Barnes (unrestricted), PJ Hairston (unrestricted), Lance Stephenson ($9.4 million team option), JaMychal Green (non-guaranteed), Chris Andersen (unrestricted), Jordan Farmar (unrestricted) and Ryan Hollins (unrestricted).
Likely cap space: $23.6 million.
Realistic maximum cap space (using $92 million estimate): $37.4 million.
2016 NBA Draft assets: Own first unless Nos. 6-14 and less favorable of Boston and Toronto’s second rounders.
Conley will play a major role in deciding the direction of Memphis' summer. While he has a close connection with the team and the area after nine seasons with the franchise, both sides have reasons to lean away from a renewed commitment. In an incredibly thin market for point guards, Conley will command a massive contract in both years and salary. He will turn 29 before the start of next season, and smaller guards generally do not age particularly well. Whoever signs Conley should be focusing on getting the most out of his ability the first few seasons with the later ones serving as the cost of securing him for 2016-17 and 2017-18.
Memphis does not fit that description particularly well anymore since their core is good enough to be a regular playoff team but not a serious title contender, even at full strength. Long-term obligations to Conley and Gasol also would make it harder to add new, younger foundational pieces. The same rationale that could lead Memphis away from Conley should affect Conley’s choice, too, because some of his suitors should offer a more reasonable window of contention with pretty much the same salary, unless the Grizzlies offer a fifth season at a high price.
Either way, Memphis will have cap space in an inhospitable market. Despite retaining the same core for a long time, the team has remarkably few long-standing obligations: outside of rookie contracts, only Marc Gasol and Brandan Wright are signed beyond next season. That makes Memphis potential players in 2017 free agency while also providing some latitude to spend on the right players now. Something like what the Trail Blazers did last summer, giving reasonable contracts to young contributors, could serve both purposes, but those deals will be harder to come by in this crazy market.
Free agents like Barnes (and Mario Chalmers, whom the Grizzlies waived post-injury to open up a roster spot) could be back but both should have plenty of offers and will be unrestricted. The team also faces a fascinating wrinkle with deadline acquisition Hairston: Because the Hornets declined his option for next year, the team that holds his rights at the end of the season (in this case, the Grizzlies) cannot pay Hairston more than he would have received on the option, which is a meager $1.25 million. That could be low enough to hurt their ability to re-sign him, though the Clippers were able to retain Austin Rivers with the same constraint last year at a larger salary limit.
Outside of free agency and the draft, the Grizzlies should also consider some hard decisions about players on their roster. Zach Randolph has been a key part of “Grit ‘n’ Grind” but also only has one year remaining on his reasonable extension. If a contender is willing to part with a worthwhile asset for him, it could be an early step on the road toward a new foundation. The Grizzlies can control that situation because they are not in a hurry, and sometimes the market gets even hotter once the season starts and injuries hit.
For the first time in a long time, the Grizzlies have the financial flexibility to make big changes and a solid rationale for doing so. Mike Conley will have a major impact on that process but the team can take control of it as well.