The countdown to the opening tip of the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup has started, and it looks like Team USA will have plenty of competition. Canada has assembled perhaps its best basketball team ever, and sportsbooks like BetMGM have taken notice.
The usual suspects — Australia, France, Slovenia, and defending-champion Spain — have all sat at +1100 or shorter to win since before the rosters were even set in stone, but Canada, which opened as a +2000 long shot before announcing its roster, has enjoyed a meteoric rise up the odds board to +500 since the likes of Jamal Murray, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and other Canadian stars committed to play.
That makes Canada the second-shortest favorite behind Team USA (-110). Never mind that the U.S. has won five FIBA Basketball World Cups and Canada has won zero. Throw out the fact that Canadian hoops maxed out at silver in the Steve Nash era. This squad is no underdog. It's solid from top to bottom and has a legitimate chance to win it all this September.
Of course, Team USA remains a heavy favorite. Its odds translate to a 60-percent implied winning probability, but Canada can be found as short as +450 on other books (win probability of nearly 20 percent). So, is Canada worth a modest wager ahead of the tournament's tipoff on Aug. 25?
Let's take a look at the full odds board for the 2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup before discussing how to approach the tournament as a bettor.
MORE: Canada leads list of best backcourts at FIBA Basketball World Cup
2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup: Odds to win
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, an Authorized Gaming Operator of the NBA. Click HERE to sign up!
| Country | Odds |
| USA | -110 |
| Canada | +500 |
| Australia | +900 |
| France | +900 |
| Slovenia | +1100 |
| Spain | +1100 |
| Greece | +1400 |
| Serbia | +1600 |
| Germany | +2800 |
| Lithuania | +4000 |
USA (-110), the winningest nation in FIBA Basketball World Cup history, predictably sits atop this list as the odds-on favorite. The roster includes former No. 1 NBA Draft picks Paolo Banchero and Anthony Edwards, 2023 NBA Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson Jr., budding superstar Mikal Bridges, and certified dime-droppers Tyrese Haliburton and Jalen Brunson. Its coaching staff is even more prolific, with head coach Steve Kerr joined by assistants Erik Spoelstra, Tyronn Lue, and Mark Few.
BetMGM offers the longest odds of any major sportsbook for Canada (+500), which features the aforementioned backcourt duo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jamal Murray, Wolves sharpshooter Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Knicks swingman R.J. Barrett, and Rockets three-and-D specialist Dillon Brooks. Team Canada also has some big-man experience, with both the Jazz's Kelly Olynyk and the Mavs' Dwight Powell.
Like USA and Canada, Australia (+900) has a strong backcourt with veteran Nets sharpshooter Patty Mills and rising Oklahoma City star Josh Giddey. Matisse Thybulle, Joe Ingles, Jock Landale, and Josh Green also stand out for this solid FIBA contender.
We can't forget about France (+900), who knocked Team USA out of the 2019 FIBA World Cup in China. The French are led by three-time NBA Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert, sharpshooters Evan Fournier and Nicolas Batum, and Mavs guard Frankie Ntilikina.
Luka Doncic and Vlatko Cancar lead the Slovenian team (+1100), while defending-champion Spain (+1100) will be led by Willy Hernangomez and Rudy Fernandez. Serbia (+1600) will be without two-time NBA MVP and reigning Finals MVP Nikola Jokic, but it will have the Heat's Nikola Jovic and Hawks' Bogdan Bogdanovic. Similarly, former league and Finals MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo announced he won't be playing alongside his brothers for Greece (+1400).
Then there's Germany (+2800), with Lakers guard Dennis Schroder, Magic swingman Franz Wagner, and big men Daniel Theis and Moritz Wagner. And last but not least (well, maybe least), Lithuania will be led by Jonas Valanciünas and Ignas Brazdeikis.
2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup: Best bets
At the risk of sounding unoriginal, Team USA has the best overall roster from top to bottom. It probably wouldn't have drawn the commitment of this coaching staff, which has 14 collective NBA Championships between Steve Kerr, Erik Spoelstra, and Ty Lue, unless it had a legitimate shot of winning it all. What I love most about this squad, besides its coaching, is that it has multiple great passers, a plethora of great defenders, and myriad long-range threats.
Still, Canada at +500 is very tempting. We've seen All-NBA star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander propel his Thunder to the NBA Play-In Tournament without Chet Holmgren, and Jamal Murray just balled out to help Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets win Denver's first NBA Championship. With R.J. Barrett on the wing and multiple veterans down low, there has never been a better time to put a modest wager on USA's neighbors to the north.
Never count out France (+900) as a value bet. Having the best defensive center and solid three-point shooting means something, as we saw when the French came away with the silver medal in the 2020 Olympics (USA took gold). We also like Australia (+900) a lot, but wonder if not having enough strength down low will hurt them.
Our sleeper bet is Germany (+2800), which has plenty of scoring talent between Dennis Schroder and Franz Wagner and scrappy bigs Daniel Theis and Mo Wagner. It's a long shot, to be sure, but all you need is a $5 lottery ticket to win $145 if everything clicks and Germany takes it down.
Betting advice: Fade Team USA (-110) at minus odds — there's just too little value. Put a modest $20 wager on Canada (+500), a $10 flyer on Australia and France if you can find them below +1000, and a $5 bet on Germany (+2800).
That's a $45 investment with roulette wheel-like winning opportunities. If Canada wins, or either Australia or France prevail at +1100, we net $75. If Germany stuns the world, we'll clear $100 in net profit. No matter what, we'll have a rooting interest throughout the 16-day tournament.
2023 FIBA Basketball World Cup: How to watch
Links to live stream FIBA hoops: Sling TV | Courtside 1891
All 92 FIBA Basketball World Cup games will be available to watch on either ESPN2 or ESPN+. Basketball fans can also stream the games via Sling TV or Courtside 1891.
Sling TV is now offering HALF OFF the first month, effective immediately. Sling base packages (Sling Orange or Sling Blue) are starting at just $20 for the first month. Sling Orange + Blue is starting at $27.50 for the first month!
