The Celtics have taken a commanding 2-0 lead over the Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals, and Boston now sits as a whopping -10000 favorite to win the series and advance to the NBA Finals for the second time in three years.
With the series moneyline yielding no value whatsoever, some bettors have instead taken to the Eastern Conference Finals MVP market. And since Jaylen Brown dropped 40 points in Game 2 — right after getting snubbed from All-NBA team voting — he has leapfrogged Jayson Tatum in series MVP odds.
Can Brown keep up this awesome run and take down his first Larry Bird Trophy? Or, will Tatum triumph and come away with a second ECF MVP to add to his display case? Let's break down the odds to win Eastern Conference MVP and discuss both players' chances of winning.
Eastern Conference Finals MVP odds
Here are the latest odds following Game 2, courtesy of BetMGM.
| Player | Odds |
| Jaylen Brown | -125 |
| Jayson Tatum | +110 |
| Jrue Holiday | +1400 |
| Derrick White | +4000 |
| Pascal Siakam | +6600 |
| Tyrese Haliburton | +8000 |
| Myles Turner | +20000 |
Eastern Conference Finals MVP: The case for Jaylen Brown
While Tatum has endured tough stretches during the early parts of the Eastern Conference Finals, Brown has been steady and consistent. After a dominant 40-point Game 2, JB jumped from +400 to -125 on the BetMGM ECF MVP board, leapfrogging JT as the odds-on favorite.
Brown put up 26 points on 50 percent shooting in Game 1, adding seven rebounds and five assists and hitting the clutch three that sent the game into overtime (Tatum took over from there). JB then went 14-of-27 in Game 2, somehow only turning the ball over twice in 37 minutes despite the high usage. Tatum, meanwhile, has eight turnovers in the series so far.
If you're worried about Brown's production decreasing on the road, rest easy. His per-game scoring only dipped by 0.5 away from TD Garden this season, while his rebounding numbers stayed the same and his assist average dropped just 0.2. He has also averaged 27.5 points and 8.5 boards over his past two road playoff contests. Coming off an All-NBA snub, Brown seems as motivated as ever to lead Boston to the Finals.
MORE: Latest news on Tyrese Haliburton's injury
Eastern Conference Finals MVP: The case for Jayson Tatum
The case for Tatum is easy: he's widely regarded as the Celtics' MVP, and he sees the highest usage and most looks in clutch minutes. He also has a history of stepping up in the big moments in the playoffs, as evidenced by his Larry Bird Trophy from 2022.
Tatum has been the Celtics' leading scorer all season and postseason, and he has led every Boston road playoff game in scoring. And unlike Brown, Tatum's points and rebounding averages go up on the road, not down (by 0.3 and 0.8, respectively...but still!). JT also went off in OT in Game 1, scoring 10 points to end the Pacers' threat. Those moments never seem too big for the perennial All-NBA selection.
Eastern Conference Finals MVP: The case for "the others"
We should never assume that a futures award for a series MVP is a two-man race, even though the Jays are far and away the most important players on the heavily-favored Celtics right now. All it takes is two big games to change the tide.
Jrue Holiday (+1400) has been brilliant this series on both sides of the floor. Derrick White (+4000) remains vital to Boston's offensive flow and rhythm, and his perimeter defense continues to be head-and-shoulders above the majority of the league.
And there's always the long-shot chance that Indy flips the script and wins this series, with Pascal Siakam (+6600), Tyrese Haliburton (+8000) or Myles Turner (+20000) riding off into the NBA Finals sunset with the Larry Bird Trophy in hand.
However, all of these scenarios seem unlikely.
The Celtics are -10000 favorites to win this series for a reason — and with Tyrese Haliburton once again feeling the nagging effects of a hamstring injury that forced him to miss time in the regular season, Indiana is limping to the finish line of a successful season. And neither Jrue nor DWhite possess the game-in and game-out usage or the media recognition that Brown and Tatum possess.
MORE: Finals results for All-NBA First, Second & Third Teams
Eastern Conference Finals MVP pick
The odds reveal this race to be close to a toss-up or coin-flip, with Brown's -125 translating to a 55.5-percent implied probability and Tatum's +110 inferring about a 48-percent probability.
If Brown stays this hot on the road in Game 3, he should skyrocket to the range of -200 to -300. If he cools off and Tatum has a massive game, the odds will flip back in Tatum's favor. At last glance, JT commands a whopping 48 percent of the ECF MVP handle (the total money bet on the award).
This one feels like Brown's to lose. He's focused, he's hyper-efficient, he's playing great defense, and he's taking care of the basketball. He hit a massive shot at the end of Game 1 to keep Boston alive, and he pounded the Pacers into oblivion with a 40-burger in Game 2. He has his game face on, and he's ready for his first big piece of hardware as a Celtic. At least in this series, Brown appears to be the most valuable player on the court.
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