Through years of transactions, NBA teams create a complex web of obligations, many of which involve future NBA Draft picks. But those picks often come protected, a way to hedge against accidentally dealing a No. 1 overall pick, as the Jazz did in 1976 by sending the Lakers their 1979 first-rounder — a pick used on Magic Johnson.
The combination of existing trades and protections means that the ends of seasons become particularly important even for teams long out of the playoff hunt. With three more days of games this season, things are proving particularly interesting with a few major draft obligation questions unanswered. Some of those will be settled by Wednesday, while others will linger until the draft lottery on May 26th.
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With the help of RealGM’s invaluable future traded pick database, here is the state of protected picks as we hurtle towards the end of the regular season.
What we know
• The Grizzlies will not send their first-round pick to the Nuggets. It is protected for Nos. 1 through 5 and 15 through 30, so the Grizzlies clinching a playoff berth means it will not go this year. The pick is only in the top five protected the next two years and then unprotected in 2019. This also has an effect on another owed pick because the Grizzlies sent a future first to the Celtics for Jeff Green that cannot convey until two years after the resolution of the Denver pick. That choice also has diminishing protection, so the longer Boston has to wait, the less protected the pick will be.
• The Trail Blazers will send their first-round pick to the Nuggets. They traded a top 14 protected first for Arron Afflalo at the deadline last year and clinched a playoff berth, so Denver will get this pick.
• The Heat will send their first-round pick to the 76ers. After eking out retaining the pick last year (and getting Justise Winslow), the Heat made the playoffs so the 2016 choice will not fall in the top 10. This also starts the clock on Miami’s first pick owed to Phoenix for Goran Dragic, which could now be conveyed in 2018 but is protected Nos. 1 through 7 that year.
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• The Cavaliers will send their first-round pick to the Suns. The top-10 protected choice was originally part of Cleveland’s salary dump to clear space for LeBron and later sent to Phoenix for Isaiah Thomas. It also starts the clock on the Cavs’ obligation to Portland stemming from the Anderson Varejao trade at the deadline. That choice has top-10 protection in both 2018 and 2019 before reverting to two second-round picks.
• The Thunder will send their first round pick to the 76ers. After retaining their pick last year, they will convey it in 2016 since it is top-15 protected. That also starts the clock on their pick owed to Utah as a part of the Enes Kanter trade, which has lottery protection in 2018, 2019 and 2020.
• The Timberwolves will not send their first-round pick to the Celtics. It was top-12 protected, but their choice will not fall that far. Instead, the Wolves are sending their own second-round picks in 2016 and 2017.
• The 76ers will not use the swap right they picked up from the Warriors in the Jason Thompson salary dump. The deal allowed them to switch the Warriors pick with either Miami or Oklahoma City's pick if Philly received them, but Golden State will pick 30th, so the swap will not happen.
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• The Bucks will get the more favorable of the Pelicans and Kings' second-round picks. There was a protection issue involved with Sacramento’s pick, but it will not come into play.
• The Hornets will send their second round pick to the Nuggets. It was top-55 protected and originally traded to Oklahoma City for Jeremy Lamb. Finishing outside the league’s five best records also extinguishes the Hornets' obligation to San Antonio from the Theo Ratliff trade at the 2010 trade deadline.
• The Magic will not send their second round pick to the Heat. The choice was top-55 protected and the compensation for Shabazz Napier.
What we almost know
• The Kings will not send their first-round pick to the Bulls. The choice is top-10 protected, and it looks like it would take teams in the double-digits of the lottery jumping into the top three for Sacramento to end up 11th or worse. If the Kings retain their pick this year, it also means they will send their unprotected 2019 first round choice to Philadelphia.
• The Mavericks will send their first-round pick to the Celtics. It is top-seven protected, so they would need to miss the playoffs and move up in the lottery to retain it.
• The Clippers probably are swapping second-rounders with the Nets. If the Clippers do not finish with one of the league’s five best records, they can swap second round choices with Brooklyn. At present they have the sixth-best record but theoretically could still pass Toronto for fifth.
• The Rockets will not send their second-round pick to the Timberwolves. This choice is top-45 protected, and the second round uses record without consideration of whether or not a team made the playoffs. The Rockets would have to win out to even make it possible they got that high.
What we don’t know
• Whether the Lakers will send their very high first-round pick to the 76ers. Finishing the season with the second-worst record means the Lakers have a 55.8% chance of keeping their first rounder this season. If they do not send the pick this year, it will have top-three protection in 2017 before being unprotected in 2018. How this resolves also affects Orlando because the Magic cannot receive a pick from the Lakers until two seasons after LA sends the pick to the Sixers. Additionally, if the Lakers retain their pick both this year and next, Orlando gets two second round picks instead.
• Whether the Wizards will send their first-round pick to the Suns. The Wizards will miss the playoffs this season so they will be in the lottery, giving them a chance to shockingly retain their top-9 protected pick if they jump into the top three.
• Which picks the Nuggets and Raptors will end up with. The Nuggets get the better of their own and New York’s selections, and the Raptors get the lesser.
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• Whether the Rockets will send their first to the Nuggets. The pick is top-14 protected and then becomes Portland’s 2017 second if the Rockets do not make the playoffs this season.
• Whether the 76ers will use their swap right with the Kings. While the Sixers have substantially better odds at a superior pick, they can switch with Sacramento if the lottery puts them higher.